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No, I never expected to be able to Buy, at these s/p levels (Market Cap £51m) either, darren123,.....if they get Ask s/p down in the 12p range (nearly there), I will probably take another tranche in that range, then wait and see if I can pick a tranche up in that 10p range, that has been mentioned by anon3,....my crystal ball, never shows me the top & bottom prices, so I gradually average into a position, then if things go well, gradually top slice, to Free shareholdings, on the climb.
Tune for weekend: https://youtu.be/NG2zyeVRcbs
BW
Point proved many times over Kaiser.
Not to mentioned gains I made from SBSW and SLP whilst JLP did nothing like I said it would, you're now trying to troll here after having your pants pulled down over not even being able to understand what nominal means.
You're an idiot man, 1st class. A but hurt one stock cry baby. ;-P
Get a life, learn to read and save some cash...150 million dilution coming for jlp, BOD sold at the top and the chairman quit at the AGM on a 20xpe
So why do I think it leans towards rewards:-
As previously stated they do not overcome their operational issue, we know they have brought in new excavators, whilst management appear to have taken a hands off approach to the operations by subcontracting their reputation is being tarnished they can no longer do that. Plus they have obtained equipment before the sanctions have been brought in.
The political environment is my number one risk and is totally unpredictable and they can totally change the investment landscape but we do know Hummingbird have an airplane and Guinea are not imposing sanctions. Yanfolia in my opinion can get resources via this route.
The gold price is always unpredictable and Yanfolia AISC is much higher that I like it to be but in a higher inflation environment my thought is that the gold price will be high enough in the next 12 months to make Yanfolia ebida positive.
Investments are a balance of risks and rewards, unfortunately we can not always gets it right as there are factors outside of our control which will influence the final outcome. In the case of hummingbird resources the risks are
1. They do not overcome their operation defects
2. The political environment adversely affects the business
3. The gold price declines and effectively makes them uneconomical
The rewards being EBITA and hopefully eventually dividends.
1. They sort their operational issues at Yanfolia and make $40m
2. They operate their second mine at Kouroussa make $70m
3. They manage to get Dugbe operational and make $60
So this is every much a balancing investment decision risk v reward. We know the price is close to a 5 year low as a large investor sells and smaller investors sell. So what do I think as investments are a personal choice that can be driven by logic or emotion. In the case of hummingbird and with inflation being high the case in my opinion leans towards rewards but will probably take 12 to 18 months to have a multiplying effect upon your investment. But as previously stated there will be external factors which will be beyond your control which could change the outcome.
You need to get a life Kaiser
Haha... I wouldn't quote Simply Wall Street to back up your assertions Platty, this is their latest assessment of HUM:
HUM | Hummingbird Resources
Jan 18
Price target decreased to UK£0.15
Down from UK£0.20, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts.
New target price is 10% above last closing price of UK£0.14.
Stock is down 58% over the past year.
The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$0.023 compared to earnings per share of US$0.054 last year.
Oh dear .....
I thought 30p was too low to be honest but here we I am with a 17.7
Hoping for my CEY trade to complete whilst we're still at 13p. If it goes my way, It'll pull my average down here to 16.9
We know Q4 results will be poor, can't see how
it will take the market by surprise, its expected.
10p is too low in my opinion but we have been
dragged down by the sanction issue we would have been 15p at least without it.
But in anycase we need the sanction issue to
be resolved otherwise all bets are off, could
spill over to Guinea otherwise.
Not sure I agree HG,
RSG pretty much unmoved over the last few days. Although it's depressing on paper, it's worth noting, if not just for a laugh at least but Simply WallSt have HUM's future cash flow value at over £5 a share lol
" this could go to 20p in no time in my opinion."
My predicted 10p looks a better bet, particularly if the next update is poor, which it probably will be (and explains why drilling news is being held back).
I certainly won't be adding at this price.
??
@Darren - soon and for the rest of your life.
This has mostly do with the possible effects of
the sanctions, for some reason I am confident
a compromise can be reached and the sanctions
could be suspended, the Mali government have
no real option, if this transpires, this could go to
20p in no time in my opinion.
"Too much stuff in there to bother correcting but knock yourself out - please dump it some more."
That 's exactly what I told him yesterday Bonkers. He's not really got a grasp of much here or in JLP for that matter.
Apologies to everyone else but he's taken umbrage at me selling after their AGM.
Never though we would be this low, when will it end
Been accumulating HUM shares, in the teens myself, Kaiser_B,.....see them, as a recovery to growth investment,....expecting to see AISC recover to a lower level, the recovery, later on, further assisted by a blended AISC, when our second gold mine starts producing, which is where I see growth initially, followed by Dugbe ( https://www.hummingbirdresources.co.uk/operations-projects/liberia/ ).
BW
News next week then do ya think?
Stop buying - I want lower :D
C'mon, gimme more!
Kaiser the new mine is funded with debt from Coris bank already. The CAPEX is $115m including pre-mining and $100m is already agreed. The production from Yanfolila should be above 100,000 pa as they are now mining the high grade Gonka deposit with another excavator to ensure ore volumes. This should lower AISC considerably, hopefully in the 1200-1300 range as an approximation. The figures you have quoted for the reserves are incorrect by more than an order of magnitude. That was just the increase in reserves with the last update. The next update will include 40,000m of drilling and if you look at the intercepts it should be a substantial increase. Then there is the imminent DFS on Dugbe and its 4M ounces.
Bonker99,
Has the share price dropped from 22p to it's current level of 13.15p in the last 3 months?
Was the majority of the message from the 3rd quarter results?
Was the AISC and profit from the 3rd quarter results?
Are you producing about 20koz a quarter and is your current resource 164.2koz meaning an approx 2 year life of mine at the moment, without expansion.
Also you state that you need to fund 51% of the new mine and it is about 100 million, which means that 51 million is needed and on 5-10 million a quarter, how are you going to fund the amount you need for it?
Not my job but do your worst ;)
Bonker99,
What is wrong about it? Just curious.
Too much stuff in there to bother correcting but knock yourself out - please dump it some more.
Seen as Bushy has been posting recommending HUM on the JLP website, I thought I would nip over and ask why anyone would invest here?
I only ask as the share price in HUM has gone from a spike up to 22p to it's current 13.10p in less than 3 MONTHS.
Here's an extract from Hum 3rd quarter results.
Q3 2021 updates:
Gold poured: 22,102 ounces ("oz") of gold poured in Q3 2021 (Q2 2021: 24,494 oz)
Gold sold: 22,255 oz of gold sold in Q3 2021 at an average realised price of US$1,782 per oz (Q2 2021: 24,790 oz at an average realised price of US$1,802).
All in Sustaining Cost ('AISC'): US$1,520 per oz for Q3 2021 (Q2 2021: US$1,386 per oz), the increase being due to lower production quarter on quarter ("QoQ")
Lower gold production QoQ
Continued investment in exploration and expansion capex developing future deposits of ~US$8.0 million, split ~US$4.4million at Yanfolila, Mali and ~US$3.6million at Kouroussa, Guinea
VAT payments of ~US$5.6 million and working capital movements, resulting in a net-debt, including gold inventory, of ~US$1.0 million
The highlights for me are as follows:
So an all in cost of $1,782 and selling at $1,520 so a profit of $262 on ounce of gold and even with the lower AISC and higher basket price from the second quarter you are making a profit of $416 an ounce produced.
Less production quarter on quarter.
8 million dollars on expansion and drilling in a quarter.
And your operating mine and source of income has a current life of mine of 2 years, based on your approx 20koz of gold per quarter and a mineral resource of 164.2koz, without expansion into other areas, which will need money spending on them.
And given the mines you have in development is going to cost HUM a minimum 51 million to develop, how are you going to fund the new mine?
Just curious ;)