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Evening - CME margin requirements pulled down by 10% so I gather.
Someone going large this week, one way or the other - keep em peeled.
Makes no sense the sp is so low
Thanks all for your input, you've given me some confidence in my initial conclusion that at current SP this is a worthy investment opportunity.
@Bismark IMHO HUM has all the bad news now baked in with zero credit for Kourousaa/Dugbe upside PLUS priced at the current AISC rather than guidance AISC as frankly the market doesn't seem to believe them. Interestingly HUMs SP was 19.5p back in Mar-20 when gold was $1,450 and again hit 19.5p 12 months later (Mar-21) when gold tested $1,680 and bounced with gold $150 higher today, but HUM being range-bound 19.5p to 22.5p since closing at 22.2p last week.
In June-2020 HUM acquired Kouroussa and signed the Dugbe JV with Pasofino both have shown very good progress & Kouroussa is awaiting licence approval. We get all that for ~10% above the Mar-20 SP when gold was $230 less at $1,450 ... seems a like a medium risk, high return bargain that is very highly leveraged to a rising gold price and a good chunk of the $230 worth of gold price catching up to do as the AISC drops back to guidance.
ATB APR
I think I will do it now (well Monday). Strengthening gold price should have a greater (positive) impact on SP for producers like Hummingbird who's current AISC is on the higher side, than those on the lower side, like CMCL who can remain profitable (almost) regardless of the POG.
A lot of movement can occur in 3 weeks. A great deal of bad news has already priced into the SP so I think probably more scope for upside than downside, even in the very short term.
Bismarck, if only we had a crystal ball. You have already decided to invest. Why not put some in now and wait for the results before committing more?
3 weeks is a long time in the markets. Gold looking strong and HUM back in favour as investors start to buy gold producers again. Personally I'd rather be in than out at this moment in time
Has anyone done any fag-packet AISC & Koz production calculations and timeline on what:
(1) Kouroussa ... subject to licence I understood initial production within 18-24 months
(2) Dugbe ... guessing 2-4 years before any production may come through
(3) Yanfolila expansion ... understood current mine plan production drops in H1-21 but picks up in H2-21
Just curious
ATB APR
I agree, and it would appear to me that the market is looking no further than the recent increased AISC at Yanfolila and has ignored everything that's positive about the company and its prospects.
The question for me is not whether to invest, but how much, and whether to wait for 2020 earnings release in 3 weeks, which if below expectations might further dent the SP in the short term?
Nah worries, A 1k ASIC would give us a 1 x EBITDA earnings valuation with pog at this price. Very undevalued imo
Thanks, I see it was $1087 in 2018, $986 in 2019. It increased last year, obviously they have had covid to deal with.
1st half 2021 AISC of circa 1450 is unusually high and not indictatative at all of the long term mining operations or the previous years. However with AISC guidance for the full year is currently still on track for 1300, which means HUM need an AISC of closer to the 1k mark towards the end of the year.
Only imho and based on what the company has stated for themselves.
Previous years have been 900 so I don't expect much deviation form that, long ter
I currently hold CMCL which has an AISC of around $800 so likely to remain profitable for the foreseeable.
I'm very tempted by what looks like an absurdly low valuation of Hummingbird at current SP.
However their AISC remains high. I've looked for a longer term forecast of what it's expected to be but found no data.
Can anyone please tell me if they have they provided any forecasts for AISC beyond 2021?