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Insert LOL here.
@BT The various things I have seen from ZeroHedge shows very high retail share dealing via Robinhood et al plus of course the rampant speculation across the Crypto market is truly eye-popping. You only have to look at the 5-6 main constituents of Nasdaq and the associated holdings of trend-following ETFs that in turn load up on these few 'growth' stocks wholly dependent on jam tomorrow at todays minimal interest rates. A huge stock market bubble built on a 'bed of nitro-glycerine' does not look sustainable.
Perhaps "This time will be different" but it seems very unlikely to me ... I'll stick with Gold, Silver, Lithium, Tin and Copper thanks
ATB APR
Anon makes a very salient point.
To determine the the true value of cash and economy. You need to look at how easy it is to borrow and what that borrowing gets spent on. The borrowing of cash to spend on financials has always been the harbinger of all crashes. Equally so that many financial institutions and strategies consider the retail participation rate in the markets they're themselves are invested.
If you want to sell, you need someone to sell too, very basic stuff. Google what the current rate of retail participation is, versus historic levels. It will make your eyes pop.
@Bonker Still sat on my hands until POG decides what its next move is going to be BUT it feels like the last hurrah trying to flush out those selling cheap and HUM is no different.
I'm just focused on Kouroussa and Dugbe ... Yanfolila will come back onstream soon enough
ATB APR
I sense the emotion but this is how you lose, unless you're just plain wrong.
If you don't like it and/or think you may be plain wrong then sell up, it's not worth emotional turmoil.
I have years of time and barrels of dry powder left to do with as I please regarding inflation/Gold/miners so I'm still very chilled and realistic about timescales for whatever comes next.
If and when some meaningful bad news drops here I may reconsider but everything I've heard so far to the plus side has been right on the money in terms of fitting in with my overall perspective here.
With big plays like this (Gold/HUM) you have to expect the "market" to try and prove you wrong and break you - it is what it is - we're not supposed to win after all.
I can stop posting for a few months if you like to try and make it look like I've given up, that may help but I'm still a buyer here so I'm quite content to keep talking bullish so they can keep trying to make me look wrong so I get to buy lower :)
Bonker, I never said it can't go on multi bagging runs.
It's pretty obvious from that same graph that it can. I haven't exactly tried to hide anything, have I?
But your reply just demonstrates why I'm really not sure about gold at all.
It's all rampy ramp, ramp, ramp where I could easily counter that there's so much liquidity sloshing about that stocks will be riding high for at least a couple of years.
Add in the fact that there are millions of new, younger investors with money to burn and I could probably make a case that there's little future in gold at all.
It's far too boring.
Realistically, I hope you're right. I'm sick of watching this fall.
This is my biggest holding. Guess what my second is? (SBTX)
It's all quite depressing, but I've realised it's only a game.
Oh well.
Here's how inflation works and why gold benefits so much...
You're selling ounces of gold for let's says 1800 dollars. Now i want gold and coincidentally I have 1800 dollars too but i want two ounces rather than the one. So If i stick my dollars on the xerox and hit print, are you still selling them for 1800 dollars an ounce and happy to take my new 'still warm from the printer' 3,600 dollars.
Actually a 20x ;)
Well we're taking about a thousand years of history into account mate, only stocks with divis have beat it over the last century.
Sure, go ahead and start with 1980, glossing over the decade long 10x bagging run it did during the inflationary 1970s ;)
A) You need to adjust historic prices for inflation
B) Real Yields, consider what central banks rates where, when they reversed and where they are now.
Why is there the automatic assumption that gold will rocket?
Certainly this chart shows that Gold barely moved from January 1980 to April 2005. It actually went down and that's over 25 years!
https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-price/gold-price-history/
Ii it doesn't work, just look at the all time .
I'm pretty sure there was loads of bad stuff went on in that period.
I must be missing something.