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Tiger et al, for those of us who switch between Hoc and Cey. Some of us were luck enough tonswitch some of our holding back to cey when Hoc was 215 and had a quick reverse to Hoc and back again to Cey at 184 and 179 ish, now following Centamin’s good result today we await Hoc later this week with trepidation. A lot of bad news, as Tiger says, is in the price, but I expect truly horrid results. Will we be saved by soaring silver and future expectation or will it be so bad our price knee jerk tumbles. Could be time, after results for a switch back to Hoc, us switchers please stay in touch.
Hi BillyBoy!
First, I did bite the bullet and buy back half the shares I had sold on Monday's RNS today. I even "made" a whole 1% on the operation, counting in stamp duty!
Roughly speaking Hochschild (HOC) shares usually trade at a price 50% higher than those of fellow precious metals miner Centamin (CEY). Over the long run you can use this crude approximation to see which one of the two is currently "cheap". When HOC shares are slightly cheaper than CEY shares (like now, at 180p to 184p), then a lot of woe is already built into HOC's share price. I guess that's why HOC's share price didn't drop more on Monday.
BTW, I still think CEY shares offer value, even at current high levels. IMO, in this troubled world of ours, a dividend paying debt free cash rich unhedged gold miner whose operations are unaffected by Covid has a great deal going for it!
Hi Tiger,
I am looking to buy in here and was expecting a much larger fall following yesterday's RNS. Can you please explain your reference to CEY.
Foe the record, I hold HUM, PUR, SHG, SRB, AAZ, CORA but not HOC, CEY (missed the opportunity in March/April).
Regards, BB2.
Hi Tiger,
I am looking to buy in here and was expecting a much larger fall following yesterday's RNS. Can you please explain your reference to CEY.
Foe the record, I hold HUM, PUR, SHG, SRB, AAZ, CORA but not HOC, CEY (missed the opportunity in March/April).
Regards, BB2.
Hi Sotolo!
I agree with most of your post. I also have sold everything except precious metal shares and ETFs. I just can't see that the risk-reward in investing in the wider market is worth it at the moment. I am sorely tempted to short some of the more "bubbly" stocks, such as Tesla, but so far I've resisted the impulse.
I'm probably more willing to play at "timing the market" than you are. But it seems I overestimated the effect of yesterday's RNS on the HOC share price. I suppose when HOC is trading 1:1 with CEY (instead of the usual 1.5:1), a lot of grief is already built into the share price. I'll buy back in here in due course, but I'll leave it a few days in the hope of a dip - Q2 results are out on the 15th, and I think we'll see some traders selling before they hit.
Well yes Tiger, after the initial Dow collapse in 1929 the market rose by 50% before going into decades of near terminal decline. So I am entirely out of it other than miners. What I hope and think is that gold falls when the market has a shocking fall and there is a rush for liquidity but if the fall is longer and slower people may actually move into gold as an alternative to shares nd eroding money. Then there is inflation; the only thing preventing a crash for now is free money, but if it creates inflation it will be extremely hard to raise interest rates. Finally gold shares which are caught between the overall market and pe’s and the price of gold. Normally miners’ profits rise approx 2.5 x percentage the rise in gold. So even if they are pulled back a bit by the falling market from 2.5x rise in share price, they should still rise a bit faster than gold. I don’t want to time the market, I don’t want to be out, I have dabbled in gold since the 80’s, I would hate to miss what could be a party, gosh aren’t we all hopeful. (On gold, not politics, not looking forward to rerun of the 30’s if that is what we get). On another note interesting if Cey or Hoc rises more from here now their prices are back level.
Well you could be right Tiger, butI was sorely tempted to overload today. I am top heavy PM an PGM stock atm.
I'll wait and watch for a few days, at least until the quarterlies are out. Not least because I want to maintain very high levels of cash for a while. I'm not sure how long the markets can keep ignoring reality and levitating on nothing like this. And as we saw back in March, when the market crashes, gold and gold stocks crash too. At least, initially.
Tiger you must have beaten me to it and sold most of what mm Was willing to buy at open. I am feeling glad I bought back at a few pence profit so fast, as said it was mostly in the price which had drifted back, so expected and got around 5% fall, but 1.5% rise in gold/silver equals roughly 5% on profits and the share price an silver is up that today. So wouldn’t want to be out.
I'm just calling it as I see it. I could easily be wrong.
And it's always best to take a loss if you believe the value of any share will drop further.
Íll sell my holding and then try and talk down the share price and buy it back again. What a great idea or maybe Íll just keep it and even add to it. Therés not many reasonable value silver miners on my radar and what with the 50 day ma moving above the 200 on silver I certainly wouldnt want to be short. Kung Flu Panda strikes again.