The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Wyn,
Look, let's agree to disagree. You are TA and I am FA. I bought in from under 13 the majority of my holding because I understood what I read and analysed. My last buy was yesterday at 21.17p, and so am very happy.
I rest also assured that my fellow TA shareholder bought at 21p therabouts. I hope you will make lots of money here and all the way to £30 quid plus should we become the Saudi Arabia of the Helium world!
Here, some useful info for everyone:
http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/259989-Project-Apollo-CLN-reduced-memory-Final-13.11.20.pdf
ATB
ST
ST all my TA analysis is before the event. otherwise I agree its pointless so although I have given various examples including before the bell yesterday on this very board, you ignore it? What am I to do?
On the AVCT board I remember when DOH use to be pretty offensively rude to me, he said something pleasant (well, for him, anyway), and PL75 asked why, as though he had lost his mind and DOH replied (This is the bit I am getting to), "he called the move down right to the penny"
You keep banging on about " predictions" and I keep telling you I am predicting nothing, I am just saying what I think is most likely.
The irony of this is that FA and TA are so intimately entwined as to make your reservations about the TA side, seem to me, foolish.
You think Charts are only good for seeing what's happened in the past ? What's FA then?
I would suggest it is an examination of past performance on managing the business using various KPI's and making ASSUMPTIONS that those trends will continue into the future! Its a bit like TA really, just different KPI's!
So I find it very ironic your concern for my methodology given you use exactly the same system,
So I post my thoughts on what I think is most likely to happen, what I actually do in terms of trades and how much I make is of no odds to anyone. (And anyway I am sure some would still not believe it)
But just for you, just this one: You want me, specifically to tell you what I trade and when.
I said yesterday I was looking to top if the price fell which I expected it to do, and it did and I got in, with the spread at a fraction over 21p. Happy now? has that made any difference to anyone? (I got in lower than both your tops ups, does that make me the "winner" then? I don't think so personally, but maybe you do (but I am guessing you don't really because you have decided it does not work and any example of it working you will ignore as you have done thus far.)
And the thing is... Great, that's fine, I don't mind, I don't care. You do what you want and i'll trundle down my own path.
You’ve served us well SpaceTomato - a shift well done and a break well earnt!
I just wish some of the experts would give us the lottery numbers too. It doesn’t seem fair that they seem to be making all the bags and we are just buying and holding in good faith that this story will end well!
Kew Gardens sounds great! Only ever seen it on a 50p!
TC. S88
Sniper88, ;0) Great post mate!
My shift is now over and there was no coffee breaks!!
Glad you have the flank covered... Someone has to stick for the Widows and Orphans here.
Now that I own quite a few of these I think I may just go to Kew Gardens tomorrow to get some fresh air, have beer or two, or three with the Wife and enjoy life waiting for the Helium to show in June/July.
Stay safe
ST
2 very good posts there S&S. I'll take the right flank. :)
@ Spacetomato crikey what’s going on here then mate!
A lot of people wanting to post the last few days saying they have bought at the bottom and sold at the top and then bought back at the next bottom and sold the top again, amazing skill to have that! Hindsight is a wonderful thing! Would they have posted to say the same if we didn’t have a correction and were now sitting at 35p... I’m doubtful.
I never ever understand why people feel the need to share when they have sold out (usually a gloat post) but they wouldn’t be happy to share when they have been spiked. It reminds me of those who claim to back every winning horse because they have a ‘system’.
Anyway, I’ve got the left flank! Hold!
Wyndrum,
Forgive me, but my prediction was spot on and that wasn't even technical analysis; it was a fundamental analysis!
What tics me off is that I have never met a chartist with convicted TA ideias that accepted that challenge I put to you! Not a single TA guy would say, YES, I take your challenge and I will show to everyone on this BB that what you have been proposing actually works well! No a single one!!
But to come here and "share your ideas" of how to trade the stock will actually encourage some people to LOSE money! And that is a FACT that if you search on google you will see that 80% of those who trade every day, eyes, every day LOSE money.
Only very skilled traders may be able to do that, but not your average Joe here who may gullibly follow these ideas that certainly Warren Buffet and others like him don't! Not everyone here is a "Wolf of Wall Street" really. The vast majority is just the average guy who reads a little about a company they think is good, buy its shares and wait for it give fruits.
So, that's why I put the challenge to you Wyndrum, so you can show these average Joe that what you want to share with them actually works in reality and it is not just fiction!
That's why I prefer to stick with a good fundamental research and educate myself on academic studies that have been carried out by real scientists (not tea leaf readers) and hope, yes, hope that my work bears fruit and the work that DM and his team of professionals are right and that there is Helium under Rukwa.
I guess, no, not guess, I am sure, yes, am sure that by July we will see the results and all this and the rest will make diddly squat of a difference in the long scheme of things.
Now I am just left here wondering how interesting it would be seeing you in action trading your way and showing us the light.
This is not personal, Wyn; it is just business.
ST
ST, let it go. You are not interested in TA to the extent you wish to "prove" it doesn't work. Fine. (What tics me off is how quickly it gets personalised. which helps nobody)
I have nothing to prove, either to you or anybody else. It works for me. As I say I pass on my experience in good faith.
I have posted on various boards, be it AGL, EVE, BMN and AVCT of SP areas where I thought it would indicate an action that were "correct". AVCT was in Dec at 107p where I said it was a good entry point. The SP never went lower after that. BMN only recently, that reversal was underway and so far so it has proved. And today here, I mentioned before the bell I would not be buying at the current price of 22.7p as I expected it to go lower. (These are just a few quick ones I recall. But I don't trade that often. Its a game of patience for the most part.)
I have nothing to prove, either to you or anybody else. It works for me. As I say I pass on my experience in good faith.
You have your system and it works for you. (I think its crazy but that doesn't matter, it works for you and if it didn't work for me, (FA) it was probably because I was no good at it.
(The bit FA folk don't seem to get is that the SP already reflects all knowledge out there. All the fundamentals are already represented in the SP at any given time, anyway, so I think FA is useful, but overrated... but here's the thing... Who cares?
Novice, never say never but one might have to wait for a very long time to no avail for your suggested entry point...
In the meantime it’s best to consider any price under 25p as an acceptable entry price.IMO. By the way, Aggressive deramping does not work. FYI.
Good luck to genuine investors.
Sometimes people don't like to hear the truth...
Novice the kn0bber. Could you make your motive any clearer
Today has been a disaster down some 6.5% and lots of after hours selling off, USA currently down some 15% and with DM presenting tomorrow will only lead to one thing once investors read between the lines that will surely point to a further and longer extension. This will plummet through the day and probably end at about 10 to 12 p. GLAH!!!
I can predict one thing though, that you will not accept it for some reason or another.
Cheers
ST
RULES:
Only one, you got to call the trades before the event and not after, otherwise it defeats the objective of the trial.
Cheers
Wyndrun,
The funny thing is that you are reflecting in the past your thoughts, which if we use 50/50 change you may be right sometimes; just like Lynch, says about charts “are great for predicting the past.
I would call your TA to a real study case scenario so you can show how good the whole ting is then; I set you a challenge, if you agree of course.
Tell us, when you selling HE1 and at what price you do, and what is going to happen next, ie; at what price you will buy back, if you do of course.
Can you do that for at least three whole trades. I want to see how successful this business is, if you don't mind.
REgards
ST
wyndrum
Thanks very much for taking the time to reply.
As you say and the same applies to the fundamentals, it's what works best for you.
ATB
Noix, there are a lot of books out there to choose from and they pretty much all say the same thing. One of the common themes is you have to find your own "system" which is pretty disheartening when you are starting out but I have (eventually) found mine and it works very well for me.
I don't day trade any more and just mess about now as a hobby. Once I find a stock I want to buy I look for an entry point. I keep it super simple for shares and so far so good.
Today is a good example as I said before the bell, I would not buy as a fall was more likely than not (I had it in my mind at 95% likely). I saw potentially 20.6p as a target and when it fell to 20.8p I committed to that price having seen it recover quite strongly previously during the day. if it does go on to fall to 20.6 then I will be have the satisfaction of getting it bang on but I am satisfied that the amount of difference between what I paid and what it might go to is too small to worry about. So during the day I slightly altered my position. And that's the thing. I can't explain exactly why I shifted the goal post. But my experience and my desire to increase my holding on a volatile share made me be flexible.
Yesterday when I was reading of people topping up around 24p I thought, Yikes! but what do I know? really, what do I know?it could have gone on to 30p! I just though that it was much, much more likely to go down from there.
I don't really care how much I make, its just a mind game for me to see how close I get to a bottom level and if my "analysis" turns out to be correct.
I pass on my experience in good faith but it is not always accepted as such. Good luck
My thoughts are that charts have a part to play when nothing much is happening but once a fundamental change occurs such as a leak from the CEO , a placing, drill starting or any notable event they go numb until some balance recurs. They can forecast shifts of sentiment but fundamental events can only be guessed at due to technical knowledge or insider information.
@Noix 16:02
This might help although its for the otc market in usa. There is a few nuggets in their for yah. Even wyndrum philosophy
https://www.investorsunderground.com/penny-stock-trading-guide/
Sentiment and potential, and many following that with little research. At the moment I believe many believe 30p is a good target, and TA has predicted 30p.. Thats enough for me to hold, rather than take the high at the moment and risk a good position(at the moment).. As we approach 30p then those highs will be tempting..But I could be totally wrong...
wyndrum
Apologies, I omitted your name. I do wish LSE had an edit function.
I'm zero rated when it comes to the TA side of things and in many instances, particularly on AIM, I believe its use can be limited as many large price rises or falls are news driven. That said it definitely has its uses and as you say many people use charts so what they "read" can be self fulfilling to an extent.
I've never been able to get my head around charts and would certainly appreciate some help, such as which ones to use, and what indicators are essentials. The rsi is fairly straight forward but I'd like aso to follow the MA50 and 200 but as an example of my lack of expertise, I can't even find the 200 MA on Market Screener. I've got the 50 MA and 20 MA though !
Any guidance would be much appreciated.
In this game for me the fundamentals are essential but anything that can be added to the mix is to be welcomed.
Thanks Igrow,
Having bought and sold (since I was a teenager) and lost more than I made, I wondered if it was a puzzle and was there a solution? And that's when I found out about TA.
But its taken me a long time to quell the emotional side and to "trust" what works most of the time.
Its all to do with emotion and its easy to see when reading any post on a BB, the "Fear & Greed" motivators to peoples opinions.
The bottom line (for me) as to whether or not TA can work is to understand its about the psychology of crowds. Its people who buy & sell shares and its therefore they that move the SP. Whether its a punt, an expectation of a good drilling report or just an appreciation that the earning potential of the company looks promising, its their actions that move the SP.
If you accept that it is the relationship between buyers & sellers that move the SP then the next step is to decide whether or not their actions are predictable. If you believe they are not then you are pretty much doing away with psychiatry and understanding that under certain conditions, peoples reactions can be predicted.
Its much easier to do that with a crowd rather than an individual. Hence various tomes on "the Madness of Crowds"!
And Money is a great emotional motivator and if you then couple it with Fear & greed as two of the most powerful emotions then you have got yourself a ballgame.
Anyway, that was why I thought there was a solution to the puzzle and it then took me a lot of time as I said up top, to figure it out to my advantage.
But each to his own. Nothing is full proof and whatever consistently works for the individual is the plan to stick to.
Wyndrum I just wanted to say that although you certainly seem to have a habit of ruffling people’s feathers, I for one appreciate your thoughts and opinions. From what I see, it is their inability to accept a different opinion to their own that is the problem, not you!
I’m also in Avacta and Bushveld where I’ve seen you defend technical analysis. So far on my investment journey I have purely gone on fundamentals but comments from you and some others I follow suggest that learning some TA, will be of great help to me so I will be sitting down over the weekend and learning all I can - silly not to soak in as much knowledge as possible. People like you and Trek kindly leave helpful nuggets of advice for those wise enough to appreciate them!
Charting could be invaluable here, I sliced yesterday to leave a free ride but there is always the possibility of a tempting re-entry. If not, doesn’t matter.
Well, looks like waiting for that price correction is going to cost me more in the long run, might feel more confident we are going to go back up,.. But sentiment for 30p is very strong, and that is the driver..might be wrong but thats where my money is.