Petro Matad CEO Mike Buck confirmed that he believes the Exploitation Licence for Block XX in Eastern Mongolia is likely to be awarded in Q2. Watch the full video here.
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Thanks Trek, was in SAVE for a bit, but limited myself to no more than 6 with my pot size so got bigger position here and copl.
Good news on that's with Niger and Nigeria.
Will take a look at the others.
Agree with you on Al Jazeera newschannel.
It's incredible how important nationalism and rebels forces grow a when a big asset is at stake.
In loads Noob. Don’t want to bore all with my tips. Many are the usual suspects.
ONC, DCTA and SAVE will be ones off the radar you can research. Not that many posters there but all good. ECR is my top gold pick amongst a few. TXP, O&G should move up in a couple weeks.
However, If it’s a boring quarterly divi stock you want. Check out GLO, stated 10% yoy divi increase and the CEO says ‘we are so cheap the best way to spend our money after paying a divi is to buy back own shares!’ Yet the stock is hardly covered! City boys eh! Lol! It’s where I hope to tip some AVCT and SNG profits when the spike as I need to provide income from this.
Re Mozambique, I have been watching it. The Total plant is $billions, built for the biggest African gas find. As often the case corruption and not sharing wealth turns some folk towards militants. The govt don’t keep it under wraps as on the take. People are vulnerable. Not a justification, it’s how it is. My preferred news channel is Al Jazeera on line. It has by far the best coverage you can catch up there.
dai’, the single unit, small number trades are either, inter market maker moving across books, gradual order filling or small divi payments (don’t apply, yet! Lol!). Those market ALGO can be scheme related as posted before. You can see the types on the LSE page, MIC flags.
In fact ( thinking for the last ten minutes).
There is more technical info on helium, national and geological study interest than LSE technical movements of the share price.
What else are the regulars in on this board.
I'm on rmm, copl, HE1, (tiny) bit on syme and BOIL.
You know you're on a detailed board when propsective military budgets and army sizes are being made!
Dai, sorry only just got your earlier post. When I did trade CFDs I had a system that worked quite well, but I only traded stocks with small spreads because I would go through the companies due to deliver Finals, Inters or T/S about a week or ten days before, check out previous results and the markets reaction and if I thought a positive outcome would result I'd take a position a couple of days before. Sounds simple, but if they opened 5% down!. Here's a for instance, GMR finals on Monday 19, to me at the moment it looks like a goer (I have'nt checked the spread though), I would watch it and maybe ? ATB
Yeah there's definitely that risk there but Tanzania has a considerably bigger army (still nothing massive though to be honest, 11,000 vs 27,000) but Tanzania's military budget is also more than 3x bigger, so hopefully this equates to better training, intelligence, equipment etc to ward off any possible attacks. Plus, although Tanzania's population is 56 mil vs 30 mil, their GDP is around 5x more. Hopefully, these factors bend the prospect of an attack away from reality. Plus, I would be pretty stunned if they bothered to attack a drilling rig in the middle of nowhere far away from large populations of people and thus the headlines
i was looking at the al shabaab issues in NE Mozambique. Total have a big gas development there and have spent many millions. I think the project was halted and workers evacuated. NE Mozambique and SE Tanzania are similar areas and populations - both deprived regions. A lot of the problem is that local people see the big foreign development but feel and see no benefit to themselves. It shows how important it is to keep the project part of the local infrastrucure.
I don't see it as a big problem for us - Ruckwa is @300 miles away but worth keeping an eye on.
Haven't heard if Covid probs are worsening but this could be an issue
about 1/3 of the last page of todays trades. is made up with £1-2 trades ???
Lots of the red trades are buys. The LSE algorithm takes 15mins to run. As the SP is moving quickly (up), by the time it has run and the trade is published it is below the mid SP point so the algorithm publishes it as a sell when it was a buy.
It works both ways. If a SP drops quickly a sell looks like a buy as by the time the algorithm has run it is now above the mid point
When the SP is moving quickly or if there is a big spread you can’t be certain re buys or sells. They are however a good indication during ‘normal’ conditions.
The best way to know is simply by looking at the SP trajectory over time, using the chart candles.
HE1 shares are in demand. The trend is up in anticipation of news. Sellers are being absorbed and when the MM can’t match anymore orders there will be the usual shake, algo trades and MM schemes (which once registered are compliant under Mifid2). Then there will be some huge gaps up to try and generate liquidity. That’s the role of the MM, to make a market!
Here’s the tech on MM schemes. So much to look forward to! Lol!
“ Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578”
Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades ATB.
Unable to trap and seal the helium
Unable to find production levels of helium, maybe because of really low purity
Potential government instability due to a new president?
Insurgencies and terrorist attacks disrupting production or halting it completely
I would say only the 4th point is a real potential issue, but this hasn't happened in Tanzania yet recently just across the border in Mozambique but I would like to think the Tanzanian government and army will want to protect valuable locations of interest. Even if that did happen, production may halt for a month or two and the SP will take a dip but production would just commence again eventually and HE1 could always hire security
There may be more cons but they're just some I could think of off the top of my head. I hope this helps new people here looking at HE1.
But a few interesting links to check out:
Comparing HE1 to competitors:
Hannam and Partners report on HE1, these are the guys who expect an SP of £1.04 if these test drills go well in May:
Very interesting report by HE1 themselves:
More of a general report on helium such as pricing:
Please also check out interviews with Helium One on the Crux Investors and Proactive
Welcome and well done with DME! 200m mcap.
As Lord Trek said, to anyone new here there seems to be a myriad of positives with few negatives:
This isn't a complete list but just items I can think of off the top of my head:
Helium supply running low, America has restricted their largest helium extraction plant for federal use only which contributed heavily to global supply
HE1 has the largest helium reserve in the world, with a P50 of 138 BCF and a P10 of 521 BCF; in comparison, Blue Star Helium's P50 is 3 BCF and their P10 is 6 BCF (even their best case scenario is 5x worse than our worse case scenario, and they've seen a 1000% SP price increase) and DME's is probably not much more.
Global demand is growing at a rate of around 8-10% a year with this expected to rise considerably because of the likes of SpaceX who need helium to cleanse the fuel tanks of their reusable rockets. If Elon wants to make his dream of 1 million people on Mars come true, that's going to take an enormous amount of helium. One Starship launch will probably consume at least $12 million worth of helium (that's a number I gathered from a video linked here by Dai where they mention how much it costs for rocket launches in terms of helium). Also, bare in mind, for every passenger ship launched there'll be a supply ship launched as well.
Supply will be even more constrained as most of the helium extracted at the minute is as a by-product of oil and gas extraction which will slowly start to go offline over time.
Price of helium has jumped massively in recent years and even the high wholesale prices are no match to the end-user ($300 - $400 wholesale compared up to $1500 end-user price). So this trend may continue.
HE1's extraction will involve no release of hydrocarbons making it a more attractive investment for the modern investor
HE1 holds 100% ownership over their licences which span 4500km2, far, far more than their competitors
As Trek mentioned, the Tanzanian government are very much behind HE1 and have said that (paraphrasing) "we need a good new story, and Helium One is that good new story"
The data/evidence for helium being there, imo, is over whelming and from what how DM has talked HE1 have no concerns whatsoever about there being no helium there nor that they won't find production-levels of it.
A part of this data is the fact that helium has been found to be seeping to the surface at a concentration of around 10.4%, magnitudes more than from traditional oil and gas and higher than DME, who I believe found concentrations of 7% and 4%
The drilling contractor, Mitchell Drilling, will take payment of the 3rd drill as shares and have offered a 4th hole as shares as well and have brought in a bigger drill at no extra cost which will save HE1 $500k and 4-6 months as they can go straight to appraisal. A massive dose of confidence
Setting up production of helium is far quicker and cheaper than oil and gas and as they don't have to drill as deep, potentially less risky
(running out of characters :
Me too! I managed to get in yesterday at 9p. I’m also a DME holder since early 2020; helium is definitely a lucrative commodity right now....
Welcome, and all new follows
Just taken a position here. Article says it all!!
Looks like all the trades in grey at 10.50 are buys getting filled, as suddenly the bid price drops, and buys are going through again
had my order sitting here for about an hour now, havent had to wait this long for the order to be filled from HE1 for a month or so now
Interesting, a sea of red, and the SP doesn't go down! Usually a few sells and it sinks like a stone - Wonder if a big order being filled, and if buyers are struggling to buy looking at the pattern
Thats interesting as I have invested in a company that should benefit supply chains, if it comes off,..
This is my hedge against it failing,
Binary Or logic.. 4 possible outcomes 75% CoS
You will have to read the reports..
If top end comes in on the 3 wells, (of 21,) estimate is +£1
If it does not I guess your going to be a long time holder, well until the next project gets started( there are 3 fields including the current).
But you may hope the price rises up to drilling and then get out or de-risk..
There is a short canaccord report, in the treads, I seem to have deleted it. worth finding..
@dai2belts - here is a quick ultra snapshot summary:
The supply chain generally has been in and out of "skin in game" business model for some time now, generally it follows the commodity cycle. Let me just touch on the most recent cycles instead of from the 80s and 90s which was peppered with failure:
1. late 2009-2014, some pushed to 2016: the skin in the game model got severely stretched from very light (risking services, or just profits) to stepping on the toes of operators. Several large supply chain companies actually went to market advertising they would invest in projects with both cash and services in lieu of a share of production (rather than paid normally , one off, as services). This was not limited to wells, but actually taking over the whole field, developing it and managing it on behalf of the operators. The level of due diligence conducted for approval conducted by services company is at par or surpasses operating companies in some cases (out of their normal comfort zone). Whilst this all sounded positive, it had its drawback :
1. some consternation in the industry itself as there was an overlap between the role of operators and services co.
2. push back by analyst and investors who were struggling to on valuation of those services co. (i see similar issue with oil companies today who cant decide if they are green or dirty. The ones who did well are Orsted / Dong Energy - full transformation).
this cycle of overstretched skin in the game came to a halt in 2016 with closure of almost all of the large projects globally during the bear period.
In the current cycle (2021, start of a new bull cycle), i noticed supply chains generally have stopped marketing but still offering it to trusted clients. However, the depth of skin in the game are limited, for example, only risking profits, or to an extent, shared risks and upside (but one off payments rather than shared revenues or profits). The level of due diligence in such a case, understandably, is still very detailed but not as wide a scope as when you have full skin in the game.
Anyhow in all cases, I have never seen a service company offering skin in the game - whether thats risked payment or in lieu of shares unless they are confident they will get their money back, plus more.
Worth also reviewing the piles and piles and heaps of debate on risk and not just listening to posters who constantly talk of the downside.
He1 is probably the most risk researched board on here. Each well, to each site to each drill, the geophysical nature, HE content and risk reward has been debated
Just imo, balanced research, no metaphors.
Anyone new here should spend time on that.
some perspective, there are people investing in hydrogen gas based on hydrogen plane invention and pie delivery companies.
So quite right. Perspective, risk and personal choice
Some don't have a balloon or a pin.
Plenty of ftse100 and 250 trades out there for safer places, lower risk and lower gain.
What was the story on the Supply Chain and how long ago?