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A lot of wise investors are now jumping on the GKP bandwagon. For example John Rosier and Barron are on-board. Now is the time to buy and hold. With news would expect GKP to hit higher SP. But am in it now for the dividends.
ingridcold; thanks your excellent post. Particularly enlightening & instructive to hear from very long term holders. Your honesty on being sucked in by hype is a lesson that deserves wider acknowledgement & acceptance within the indy oil/gas/minerals investment arena. It is a refreshing antidote to the hype still omnipresent here. As someone who has been invested here only 3 years, i'm mindful that whilst i'm already ahead of my expectations, to some degree that is at the expense of VLTH's such as yourself. Your patience in not jettisoning your loss also has lessons for investors, and i truly hope & believe you will get your break even. I'm not sure i would envisage a headline 580p SP in 5 years but I DO see that in combination with the dividend throw offs.
My viewpoint? I bought 3 years ago, just believing that the constant cash generated relative to mkt cap showed deep value. Aware of the political situation, & despite being very green orientated, felt there was a 20 year gap in the ESG transition, & that that ESG mantra so sexy with institutions was falsely driving down both the valuations of producers & the price of oil. I just took a contrarian view that there was a mismatch between the desire for green energy without considering the need for dirty energy to get there. Whilst i stand by that investment belief, i too was a little naïve, green behind the ears to the totality of GKP. I've learnt much from the contributions on this BB, (particularly PUTUP as unfashionable as it to say so!), which guides where i believe this will go/my expectations going forward for the next 5 years, & indeed has guided the numerous other stocks i have in oil/gas/mineral in unsexy/politically challenged environments; negative to my initial euphoria of earnings, i've learnt (beyond the current elevated OP) where that throw off has come from - basically the payback of costs VLTH's like you incurred long ago, & that will drop; learnt that soon the agreed terms mean GKP will be getting a small percentage of production going forward, a& without ';development' that income will drop. On the plus side, even without production uplift/progress/development that small percentage of a large amount has 20 years to be the gift that keeps on giving, albeit not in a euphoric 5 bag 6 month bubble up/takeover, more as a 10% yielding 'infrastructure' play.
In summary, & crucial to your break even realisation, if i was to examine GKP afresh today, would I invest? Hell yes. I still feel there is deep value, albeit that i now see it more as a reliable high yield 'infrastructure' play & due to geopolitical reassessments now less of a contrarian play. With the long promised but seemingly elusive increased/new production this would constitute a growth, value & high yielder all at the same time. I hope there is no takeover - i believe GKP could become a minor major in it's own right.
morning damofarl
i think i just responded to someone else discussing the war and with nothing happening for GKP at the moment, i thought there's no harm on a quiet day having a debate about more important issues. in my opinion it beggars belief the lack of common sense and decency some lack when it comes to these sort of topics, but i guess that's what the internet allows people to do, rant and rave no matter the level of lunacy or depravity, it doesnt really matter as there is no accountability at the end of the day.
but i digress, on to GKP, my view on this isnt one that is all too educated to be honest. to be candid i got sucked into this years and years ago on hype and have regretted it ever since. however via averaging down and dividends i have managed to get my average share price down into a sort of respectable 580p range, so do i think (hope!) i will get my money back in the next 5 years, yes, i am cautiously optimistic on that front.
for the first time in 10 years i have been involved GKP seems to be operating as a proper company, getting payments, being a little more open and honest, financially more sound, the new BOD are a vast improvement on former ones, the political winds seem to be changing in our favour
however this is GKP and its located in Kurdistan, so not for one second am i not prepared for something to happen that sets the company back several steps, or even destroys it etc etc.......i dont believe the oilmans, bigdogs of the world that consistently and bitterly trash talk the company and on the flipside neither do i concur with opu or the nutter paul on advfn that all is rosy 24/7 and the Chinese will buy us for $100 billion!
if all goes to plan its going to be a long hard slog with a SP that slowly grinds higher over then next several years. if i break even i am getting out, or at least pulling the majority of my investment.
i put the odds of a takeover at 50/50, but only when the politics is more certain, but we need a lot higher SP when the bidding starts or there will be a lot of unhappy people on here.......
penny for your thoughts?
ingridcold; despite the fact i don't really get the relevance of your posts to GKP, with regard to power flexing/Ukraine? Putin? i feel your thesis is pretty sound; not quite sure why it has elicited such trashing, but then i can never understand why opulentia gets such a fan base, and Putup gets such vitriol......thats life's rich tapestry all here on the GKP board!
Anyway welcome. And whats your stance on GKP?