The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks for that Bamps that’s news I and probably others would like to hear and I hope that will be another hurdle overcome!
All the best Ben
Hi Ben
The scenario with Telfer is just the same as before and won’t change till it gets Havieron ore.
They are scratching around to find anything worth putting through the plant, it’s still earning money and had a free cash flow of $103m last year, it should have been $194m but the old hedging deals knocked 90m off it.
The copper credits were good last year with high prices but this coming year may be difficult with weaker ore grades and lower prices.
It was intending to close in 2023 only as far back as 2019.
When the Havieron Decline gets into full speed watch it go, they will be looking at other ways to accelerate, safely I might add.
There is more scope for more gangs and machines.
There should be no concerns now we are going mining
All aboard :))
Good morning Bamps
I am very happy and surprised we never gave away the 5% for a measly $60m .
I also believe that Shaun has the funding sorted for mining whatever the outcome.
We hope mining ( which is planned for early 2024) will go ahead.
My only concern is if they put this back, I know they have pumped a lot into Telfer and have 1200 staff on the payroll, but this is the only complication I can see to prevent our inevitable £1.44 a share.
My question is have we got a official start date or is this something that can bite us.
I only ask this because we will have to get another form of income to keep the lights on while we wait.
All the best Ben
Hi Taverham
A mineral of 6.5mozeq is the mineralisation in that specific zone.
The next step up to a probable ore reserve is 2.9mozeq suggesting this is the amount of mineralisation that will be found.
It’s the reserves that can be booked on accounts as an asset not the resources.
The next step up is a measured resource where the information can give some security of a definite outcome.
It’s all about risk.
Bamps great posts but isn’t the resource is by 6.5m oz?
NCM appendix 4e
Page 34
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-08/2220819_Newcrest%202022%20Full%20Year%20Results%20%E2%80%93%20Appendix%204E_1.pdf
Drilling at Havieron transitioned from Greenfield to Resource Definition to support the Havieron FS, with overall drilling activity at Havieron decreasing during the period. Additionally, after Newcrest met its farm-in
requirements, Greatland Gold covered its 30% share of all exploration expenditure for the majority of the current period
Why didn’t NCM take the 5%?
I’m baffled why they didn’t.
They must have gambled on them winning the independent value being in their favour and missed the chance to accept Shaun’s $85m.
Must be kicking themselves.
If you look at the Sprott note they quote a figure of $276/oz in the ground
On the reserves alone the value comes to around $42m.
This can be the only reason not to take the 5% for $60m.
Their hurdle of 15x the initial investment fell short.
If you look at it another way
$1800 gold price less $1000 AISC (for clarity)
160,000oz 5% ore reserves = $128m revenues
$60m x 15 =$900m
That seems a bit short sighted to me, if it had been a green field fresh start on new mine, I could have understood it.
What if the gold price does rise to $2,500 and what if Hav north comes good or the EB doubles in size they will have missed out big time.
But they have said they are comfortable with 70%, so fair play Sandeep thank you very much you’ve been a great partner keep it up :))
Why is Shaun and most long term holders delighted to have retained the 5%?
Ore reserves 3.2moz equivalent
25% = 800,000
30% = 960,000
NCM would have had 2.4mozeq 75% now they have 2.24m 70% that is a 5% reduction
Ggp would have had 800,000oz
Now they have 960,000oz
That is a 20% gain
Thank you so much Sandeep I think your brilliant:))
You do seem to be very 'C_O_C_K_**** Sure' of yourself.
@Rosso,
Re: 'Not at all. NCM will be back shortly to try to take us out. Don't say you weren't warned. Watch and wait.'
You do seem to be very '**** Sure' of yourself. I happen to think the very oppossite, NCM it would seem ....have more than enough issues to deal with at this moment in time, such as todays excellent post by Bamps 21, namely:
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-08/2220819_Newcrest%202022%20Full%20Year%20Results%20%E2%80%93%20Appendix%204E_1.pdf
Page 18
Accidents up
Revenues down 8%
Profit down 25%
Gold production down 7%
Copper production down 17%
Free cash flow down 179%
AISC up 14%
AISC margin down 16%
Earnings per share down 27%
Dividend up 46%
Cash down 70%
Debt up 853%
Gearing up 653%
Think again, now is the time for alignment and moving forward, IMHO :O)
Well I hope they have more SWAG in their bag, because if they think the majority of Pi’s will accept the sort of numbers you have been spouting, then I’m afraid your both gonna be disappointed
Not at all. NCM will be back shortly to try to take us out. Don't say you weren't warned. Watch and wait.
You’ve suddenly changed your tune
Why ?
The goal posts have been well and truly moved. GGP won on several points today. Not having to repay the Facility A and B loans until production. Stet at 70% does not give NCM more control over Havieron. Not being ripped off on the blatant Unfair Market Undervaluation. Confirmation of 6.5m oz gold equiv, based on cut-off Nov 2021, means considerable upside for MRE2. The $85m offer indicates SD is well set to go for the $100m+ debt finance required.
The only real potential downside I foresee is that of Newcrest turning predator for the 30% of Havieron or indeed the whole Co. in a lowball grab attempt ahead of MRE2, BFS or Shaun's debt finance solution.
Today was a good day, a very good DAY.