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Thanks Hasiba. I guess that broadly matches to the 65% ownership of the Modi family. Either way, there are not many shares kicking around (which can be a problem as it puts off institutional investors). Can take my shares out of the free float for now as well.
Hi Guys…
According to FT there are only 48m floating shares out of the total 119 m share.
GL
Thanks for this Bismarck. It's difficult to get up to date info. By my reckoning, the Modi family own 65% of the stock (see last director dealings RNS from Nov 2020 for this figure). Some months ago there was also a very large number of shares traded which corresponded with the M&G holding. So i think they are out already but there has been no RNS to confirm this which is why im a bit confused. Maybe there is a loophole that means they do not have to disclose. According to 'Marketscreener' that leaves Aegon and Silvercrest with 0.5% and 0.41% respectively. Given the large amount of stock traded recently i wouldnt be surpirsed if one or both of these are out now as well. This would mean no long standing large shareholder left to sell. All conjecture as we dont have the information. Someone has obviously bought all these shares as well and there have been no director shareholding RNSs since Nov 2020 so it cant be them. Whoever it is could clearly sell their holding short term after a decent rise - which would spoil the fun a bit
Hi Troy
According to Simply Wall St -
14.4% Institutional
37.6% Individual insiders
48.1% General public
Top 3 shareholders -
Yogendra Modi 37.57%
M & G Investment Management 13.95%
Silvercrest Asset Management 0.41%
Not sure if it's 100% up to date, but if no3 (Silvercrest) only holds 0.41% then only Modi or M & G could rock the boat with large sales?
No problem Bismarck. I dont think the research has much bearing on the current share price move as Arden Partners for example have had a similarly high share price target for the last few years. For me there has clearly been a lot of shares changing hands recently and i think that's relieved the selling pressure that has been hanging over this stock for quite a while. No significant ownership RNS's though so i am confused as to what has actually happened. Agree with you that in the absence of a significant buyer - if another large shareholder shows themselves as a seller, then the shares will likely fall quite a bit. I dont see that happening right now as the significant value offered at this stock price should continue to attract buyers and not sellers - and as said above the very large sellers are already out (i suspect). There cant be many if any long-term institutional or private investors with 1m or more shares still. Please share an updated table of largest shareholders though if you have it.
Thanks very much for this link Troy
Do you think this analysts very bullish report the main reason for the recent SP increase or are there other reasons?
I'm delighted that the shares I bought a few months ago at 15p have practically doubled
However, recently traded volumes are miniscule. I remember that even my modest trades (I did about 3 at between 25K to 50K shares) caused SP increase while I was buying.
What's going to happen to SP now if someone wants to dispose of 1,000,000 shares over the coming days/weeks?
This is getting exciting ride of this share!
Holding strong here for much more!
Troy….very interesting as they have raised their target sp and huge NAV valuations!
Hold for gold then….!
For those interested, research focusing on mostly the potential short to longer term valuation for GEEC is available at https://www.spangel.co.uk/research/#/portal/sp-angel . Usual caveats apply as SP Angel act as corporate broker to the company.
Actually the share price bottomed out at less than 10p in Feb 2021 - but i think the point still stands.
Thanks Hasiba! Happy to share my thoughts. In truth though the share price peaked in April 2010 at over 500p a share and recently bottomed out at just over 10p a share in April /May 2021 (i hope they have bottomed at least). That means i've been wrong on this for 11 years :) . Hopefully the patience and research is about to pay off. Lets see. there's a lot for this company to do still to crystalise the potential intrinsic value.
Great you took the plunge though at what could be an incredible entry price!
Troy…it amazes me from the beginning you had much insight into this hidden company with amazing good value and you always had convincing argument that it will come good …now this is truly showing…
Thank you
Its possible i guess. Essar Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Limited operate the neighbouring concession so must be significant synergies in bringing the two together. GEEC would be pocket change at this level for Essar O&G. However, GEEC majority owned by the Modi fmily with near 70% ownership and i think they are in for the long haul and have indicated that they think the resource is worth over $1bn NPV. The current share price - even after todays move - is a very shy of what i think the Modi family would accept.
The sp is rocketing …?? M & A action…
Think you're right Hasiba. Just a lifting of the persistent stock overhang or something else? A lot of shares have changed hands over the last few weeks and now the market looks to be pretty tight (at least for now). I'm hopeful the long awaited re-rate is now happening and will stick.
Easy to sell! Wonder why MMs wanted my share now!!
Holding for a little longer…it seems something is brewing…
Dyor as always
Anyone who's been following the stock for a while got a view on the recent unusual activity in trades? I've followed this company for many years and the last few days have been very unusual for a stock that often goes weeks without a single trade - and when large volumes has come through the share price tends to move quite easily. We're now seeing large volumes on a daily basis by this stock's standards and a pretty stable share price. Interested to hear thoughts on what has suddenly changed (if anything).
Cash positive during a year of pandemic in India with net debt down is a really strong under-pinning for GEEC share price in my view. Key is access to the huge gas market of West Bengal and Kolkata and nice to see that we have a date for completion of this pipeline to these key markets. The Aug 2022 completion date given is another slip in timeline from the Dec 2021 guidance provided before and so can be seen as disappointing - but Covid19 is at least partly responsible. How soon before the share price begins to factor in this opportunity. GEEC is priced for almost certain failure so i would expect to see a significant re-rate as we head through the remainder of 2021 and first calendar half of 2022. Covid 19 sadly hasnt finished with India yet but GEEC has shown that it can continue to meet financial obligations, generate cash and reduce debt even with such a dreadful back drop.
Full year results could only be a few days away reference to last year, with the opportunities with the new pipe line giving new markets and the drilling of new wells to meet demand their results could make interesting reading, if not for the year just gone but the year we are into now.
I am not invested here the 30% spread off-putting, I will watch with interest.
This share is restricted to the patient investors!
Holding reasonable holding
GL
I was going to explain the reason for wanting to buy these shares at this level, then realised it was a bad idea.
Don't buy them....they're rubbish, sell as many as possible, at whatever price the broker offers....and do it fast! LOL
You are correct....liquidity is a huge issue here. definitely not a trading stock. I believe that part of the reason for the significant discount is the lack of free float and very low traded volumes. However, for patient investors this represents an opportunity. Having been building a large position in GEEC over the last few years I'm always delighted to see new investors here. Few guarantees with an Indian-based small cap but if the stars align then the upside is huge - several hundred million market cap not several million as is now
I think today's rise was mainly because I bought 60,000 shares this morning. I tried to buy more but price increased from 13.98 to 14.98 when I tried to buy another lump so I gave up. Subsequent rises were after some very small trades of a few thousand shares.
I'd love to own more at these prices but liquidity is obviously an issue.
Fingers crossed Hasiba. We should get a results announcement in July with more details on a number of fronts. Shale test drilling commencing, new customers from national pipeline link at Durgapur, london listing as well as update on pipeline progress to huge Kolkata market.
I also really want to know who bought M&G's stake in the company. IR wont respond to me and there has been no RNS.