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@ItsYou I'm going to stop trying to work it out or infer what they are going to do until after Q2 Ops report drops as that should fill in a couple more "missing" pieces.
All I can see is that they seem to be being incredibly conservative or Plant 1&2 need to be both offline for 5 months to fully upgrade AND Plant 4 won't produce anything until Dec-22 which also makes no sense. Plant 3 20kt HL can produce 590oz/month on its own with a 1-month cook cycle and 1.72g/t at 53.5% efficiency given Q1 figures.
It must be me
ATB APR
My apologies to Robbie. I just saw the clarification tweet. That's the sort of clear messaging we need. Please scrap my earlier moaning. I'm still on the team!
Yep aprog. I just realised that I was in calendar years not financial years. But my basic idea is the same. Over the past period, the message has been 2koz per month by the end of the year. They must be careful not to get too fudgy now on exactly when that is. In the bigger picture, a month here or there really doesn't matter and I ultimately don't care if they round down the difference. But if you repeat a target like a mantra, punters are going to hold you to it and get nervous if the message starts looking different. I'm comfortable we're still on script. But I hope the messaging remains unambiguous and clear.
"Couple several" should have read at 1-2 months
I worked out from the tweet/chart /presentation that they are forecasting 2Koz per month from January 2023 and they have also forecast July -December 20222 at 533oz per month
APR,
We have to remember that both plant 1 and 2 will be out for a couple several week each.
The plan was to first decouple plant 2 and then upgrade before doing plant 1. The 532 oz avg per month will take into account the main plant 1 being out completely, but as plant 2 is decoupled at that stage, gold can be produced as we as at plant 3.
@swamp Whilst I can't disagree the numbers provided make no sense ....
Presentation slide production namely:
> Production from Jan-2023 to June-2023 is @2koz/month
> 12- month Period Jul-22 to Jun-23 = 15,196oz
> Ramp-up period Jul-22 to Dec-22 = 15,196 - 12,000 = 3,196oz or average 532oz/month
This is equivalent to 50% of plant 1 and 2 combined or just Plant 3 for the next 6 months to Dec-22 on the assumption that there will be 2koz/month after Dec-22 ... it makes zero sense as that would mean that Dec-22 itself would also be 532oz which breaks there pledge to hit 2koz/month in Dec-22 ... OR they hit 2koz in Dec-22 and then teh next 5 months is 3196-2000 = 1196oz TOTAL for the next 5 months or 240oz/month Jul-22 to Nov-22 inclusive!
Someone tell me where my maths is incorrect please? I think they need a new slide
ATBA PR
I'm also surprised that they needed to correct, although happy with the "on track" comment.
It's plain to see by the foot note that it's for the financial year ending, not calendar year. This is standard for other companies.
But it was a pointless original tweet, before Robbies good one, from a historic presentation. Like the other tweets recently from the same presentation, including the one with the old resource and planned end Q2 update. Why bother for a forward looking company.
Not sure if st brides do it now, but bring back JB!
I dont think it was clarification as such, but spin that required context. The previous spin was, "we'll be producing 2koz from the end of this year." That slide said "by the end of next year, we'll have produced 24koz for the year". One promised jam in six months from now. The other tells us how much jam we'd have enjoyed 18 months from now. Now (ignoring the question of incremental improvements for the 12 months of 2023) those two statements while promising the same thing, are speaking to two very different groups of investors. The first group got a little spooked by the change in messaging. That was an oversight.
Bebo - Agree there was nothing really to clarify there as the dates were clearly shown.
There was a little pointer towards regional exploration that should already be in the public domain by my reckoning. and the same with Nyakafuru.
I have to say I thought it was a minor issue to clarify. There's lots of other more important items that they could have clarified but chose a tweet of a slide from a presentation.
Perhaps I'm over thinking?
As the office was probably closed today Mickey I am not personally expecting them tomorrow but I would love to be wrong. Certainly (hopefully!) by the end of the week though - that has always been my expectation. A day of 2 halves today - I preferred the second half of course - but ultimately like any game it's the final score that counts!
Results must be tomorrow , buckle in folks.
MMs expecting news and rise 6m shares of the bat at .82
Yes. So that means we are looking for bigger movements here soon and will be here till we achieve the goal.(2k)
Multibagger easily and 1p for the starter here…..
I think if you read between the lines maqsood then there will not be a placing. It has already been explained that a placing could not realistically happen until the year end given the need to finalise accounts and then agree with the FCA which can take around 3 months - by that time most of the work will have had to be done I would have thought. Unless I am missing something here? ATB
Good thing here is we don’t have any debt.
If we arrange some financing and not the placing for our projects then we are looking at really strong momentum here from these levels.
If all goes according to plans then 3 to 5p is achievable here easily. Which will give mcap of between50-70million and revenue will be 42million with that scale of production. Imo
The only question in my mind maqsood is how many bags and within what timescales. I don't know the answer but I have no question in my mind that it will happen. The fundamentals and strategy are too compelling frankly and the POG rise is a nice backdrop and forward momentum but even at lower levels, they have applied stress tests and money can still be made at much lower POG levels.
Gold @ $1,799.40
Just a little push to get over $1800!
2000oz is 4-5 times more than current production.
Revenue will be around 42million!!(@1750)
And so mcap will be multiple of current mcap
And a multibagger for all of us.
That’s great.
Much more positive than earlier tweet,and everyone is more confident now!!
BOOOM TIME AHEAD
That’s it the 350k gone now. NT for 5000 shares, yes £46!
Need to move price up to get sells.
‘Easy money’ if you just happen to be in the right place at right time. I reckon I could sell the 1m at end of day for profit but why. I don’t see it changing tomorrow.
There isn’t the liquidity here that there was before. I mean that this time as a positive.
Usual caveats
Trek
Now 8485 for 350k sorry trade dropped in. After that NT.
Usual caveats
Trek
Here she goes. I took 2 x 500k. Couldn’t buy 1m as NT. Now can only buy in 200’s on ii.
Any traders would buy now to sell into news. I am not but that’s what I would expect.
Let’s see.
Usual caveats
Trek
@TopCod, nice spot thanks. Robbie tweets all on track and provides some ore clarity on June Presentation slide production namely:
> Production from Jan-2023 to June-2023 is @2koz/month
> 12- month Period Jul-22 to Jun-23 = 15,196oz
> Ramp-up period Jul-22 to Dec-22 = 15,196 - 12,000 = 3,196oz or average 532oz/month
Interesting as previously stated Plant 1 & 2 would be upgraded in Q1/2 2023 which may or may not still be the case depending how they run the Plant 3&4 140kt HL capacity as this could be run on 2-month cook cycle with 1-72g/t and 53.5% recovery and produce 2070oz/month. I guess when Q2 Operations report comes out more will be revealed!
What is now very clear is GCAT has lots of options to deliver 2koz/month which is a good thing, but surprised by low 532oz/month up to Dec-22 which is easily achievable with no Plant 1, 2 or 4 and just Plant 3 20kt HL running a 1-month cook cycle on pilot plant grades and %efficiencies. GCAT have set themselves a very, very low bar for balance of 2022.
ATB APR