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My only concern is Robbie has been telling fibs and the sums and results dont match up, in that case even at a loss im out ,hope not would like to just sit in this share for 3 or 4 years and watch it grow.
Mickey i wouldn't pump into ggp at the moment with this war ****e going ,the next rns to me is very important to see where we are going i think there trying to get everything sorted out but i think if news was real good they would be pumping out an rns , like they were doing to start with with social media when they were hyping it up to fcuk to try and pump the share price up , that didnt work and now there a lot slower at putting out results as people actually want facts and figures
2k a month production means 4fold of current production,and mcap should be four times as well as SP? Imo
Great posts by posters today,specially APR,thanks APR.
mickey,Gcat sp can multiply from current prices,so good to be here,imo.
If RM can’t get 2k oz until next year I’m selling and adding to ggp .
I agree, but I think GCAT will reach the target in Q4/2022, and they will issue a mission accomplished RNS at that time.
In my opinion I see GCAT reaching that 2k gold oz /month target at Q1/Q2 2023. The reason for this is that they are still quite behind to catch to this number due to several plant upgrades. Q2 report will give an idea of that, but I dont expect magic numbers. Of course, I might be wrong and the heap leach plant potential and some high average grade numbers during the quarter may see us hit that 2k oz in Q4 2022. Either way this company is really undervalued based on current numbers or future numbers. What is more, we are gonna enter a rich news period, and with some good sentiment and rising gold price who knows.... the SP might rise to 2p or 3p this year alone???
@swampy Exactly. To my mind:
Reasonable downside scenarios are covered by:
> strongly rising production output target 2koz/month Dec-22 and 4koz/month Q2/3 2023
> low AISC at $1,250 and more likely to head lower than higher
> 10-year mine life from Batch 1&2 infill drill results increasing current JORC confidence
> Batch 3&4 expansion drill results due in updated MRE latest OCt-22
> GCATs ability to 3x HL gold production (in June Presentation) by using 1-month vs. 3-month cook cycle
> POG does what it "should" be doing and rerates to $2,000 or circa $2,500 consensus estimates or outperforms and goes "Nickel" due to one of many possible market or CB fiat dislocations
> GCAT brings forward Plant 4 operations into Q4 and hits 2kpoz/month much earlier
> GCAT runs Plant 3&4 "hot" in Q1/2-2023 on 1-month cook cycle whilst Plant 1&2 upgraded so no dip in gold output
> Any of above causes GCAT to rerate well above 2.5p before Dec-22 and all 300m+ warrants exercised bringing in £7.5m new cash
Of course if the gold price really takes off, it's anyone's guess where this can go. That's the fun times scenario.
I like where your thoughts are at, aprogerson. If I can be presumptuous, I think we're occupying a similar head space, in that we'd be neither surprised nor dissapointed to see this share price double by the end of the year?
@swamp Sentiment is a tricky thing but we do know that Junior miners are absolutely hated right now but given gold is one of the few things actually performing reasonably well (except in the US$) and it is being heavily bought when PX drops that puts a really strong floor in at around $1680. IF we break $2k or even $2,050 then GCATs profitability will multiply up very rapidly into a strongly rising production number.
GCAT @1,878m shares and 0.75p is currently sat at £14m MCap which is pretty much the same as at Aug-21 RTO but an enormously different animal and 2x production even back in Q1. For Dec-22 we will hit 2koz/month at (say) POG $1,850 and AISC $1,250 gives $600/oz profit or $1.2m or £985k/month profit.
By Dec-22 if GCAT SP=1.6p then MCap =£30m so P/E=2.5 at 2koz/month & $1,800 POG which seems very, very reasonable. However we also know that there are a bunch of warrants due to expire in Dec-22 priced at 2p that GCAT would much rather have exercised to bring in a decent slug of cash. GCAT do not control POG. but they can control how much gold they produce given they can vary the HL cook cycle to produce more gold albeit at lower % efficiencies AND they can push on with larger 2x 60kt HL pads even one of these operational on a 1-month cook cycle will produce a HUGE slug of additional gold especially IF Plant 3 is also fully operational.
My Nov/Dec-22 Goldilocks Scenario is circa 3,450oz/month:
Plant 1 & 2 (15ktpm) = 15kt *2.5g/t /31.1 *91% = 1,090oz/month full-time until end Q4'22
Plant 3 (20ktpm) = 20kt *1m cycle time *1.72/31.1 *53.5% = 590z/month assumed 100% available
Plant 4 (2x 60kt pads) = 120kt/2 *1m cycle time *1.72/31.1 *53.5% = 1,770oz/month assumed only 1 pad available
It is not beyond the realms of possibility just so GCAT can "showcase" what they are capable of AND if by any remote chance they have BOTH Plant 4 pads operational then they can easily slam 4koz/month ... depends how bullish they want to be!
Food for thought anyway
On the obvious disclaimer upfront that I'm no expert and listening to anything I say is stupid:
At the current POG, I'm hoping for around 1.3 to 1.4 for December. If we are at a better gold price of say around 2000, then maybe 1.7 to 1.9.
Important add here, that these targets are on gut feel and have have been pulled directly out of my rear end. If I were to apply any sort of rational mathematical valuation they'd probably be quite a bit higher. Just that we haven't seen any sign of any rationality in junior gold miners for some time now. I'm not sure there's any reason to think the markets are going to become reasonable, clear thinking places this Christmas. For all we know equities could be in full blown meltdown then. Although even in that crash scenario, I can't see us lower than the current share price.
Who knows? It a bit of a guessing game and 6 months is really just around the corner. I'll be delirious if you're right (and I don't exit too early, as is my habit). It just might be too soon to climb quite that hard.
We’ve got three significant events coming which will change all..
1/ Quarterlies ( imminent imo )
2/ Drill Results
3/ upgraded MRE
Please be realistic guys, where do you think this is going. I'm curious to hear all opinions. I'm hoping for 5p by end of year!
Please see my 3 post analysis posted @3-July-22 breaking down my analysis of GCATs June Presentation namely slide 11 "KILIMAPESA PRODUCTION FORECAST" and how I think they have arrived at gold production, mine production over time given grades et al published in Q1 Ops Report.
My numbers match with 5% or so of those published and correlate to Plant availability and throughput already given. So whilst they haven't exactly spelt it out for us we can in fact infer quite a lot if you follow the ..................
I think Greg was probably assuming 2k oz a month Jan to June 23, leaving a bit over 3k-odd oz averaged over H2 2022? Understandable given the limited info we've been given so far?
I was thinking about Greg's comments about the incomplete MRE. I think I understand 'where he's coming from': why create a seemingly arbitary end of Q2 MRE target with other assasy outstanding, if there was no imperative to do so for possible funding requirements? I've no idea, but I can see the rationale.
"GCAT have already stated that Plant 1 & 2 upgrades have now been delayed until Q1/2 2023 "
Plant 2 has been out(decoupling was previously mentioned) and Plant 1 will be upgraded soon for commissioning late 2022. Whether the de-coupling affects Plant 1 production...maybe?
But I'm expecting similar production, if not down on Q1. I also like to be conservative :-)
The Elution plant still needs to be upgraded and until then gold dore produced is going to be constrained IMO.
As JC said, it's not about current production this year, it's about reconfiguring and upgrading everything for 2k p/m steady state in early 2023.
The plan is coming together...exciting times ahead on many fronts!
@maqsood My prediction for Q2 Ops Report from my "Great Expectations" post @27-Jul-22 was:
Best guess Q2'22 gold production circa 1,390oz/month average over period
Plant 1 & 2 (15ktpm) = 15kt *2.5g/t /31.1 *91% = 1,095oz/month full-time until end Q4'22
Plant 3 (20ktpm) = 20kt *1m cycle time *1.72/31.1 *53.5% = 590z/month @50% average = 295oz/month as capacity commissioned and/or mine ore output ramps up into Q3
Plant 4 (2x 60kt pads) = under construction so anything would be a bonus!
Sorry Greg I've no idea how you derive 533ozs production forecast from GCAT presentation ... please explain?!
GCAT have already stated that Plant 1 & 2 upgrades have now been delayed until Q1/2 2023 so we know that this setup will produce 950oz plus a month in Q1 and that was working 18 days rather than their normal 20 days/month operation. We also know that Plant 3 has now been built out as we have seen the pictures confirming such and we know the pilot was commissioned back in Mar-22 ... so I have assumed a "worst case" of only 50% working capacity on a 1-month cook cycle for my figures but using pilot plant efficiencies and grades.
IMHO I hope that they will overperform as my "expected" figures are very, very conservative. I also hope that GCAT gives far more detail on revised mine grades and HL plant performance, cook-cycles and expected %Efficiencies going forward.
What's all this 2 mill plus or minus unknown *******s?.
The pilot heap leach plant was commissioned on 29 March 2022, with 4,529t at 1.5g/t Au being loaded on the first lift. The heap leach process, with its operational efficiency gains and low operating costs, will enable Caracal to maximise the gold recovery from lower grade ore. The full heap leach plant operation will be expanded up to a capacity of 20,000tpm.
This is commissioned on 29th of march,with pilot processing and expected to full scale processing to go upto 20000t.
Personally I am less interested in what has been produced and more interested in the progress to ramp up future production. ATB
Not long to wait, 1400-1500 oz is my prediction,what are others expecting?
Consolation at this level, and will be marching towards 1850 imo.
Market is really uncertain and hold buying is increased behind the scenes(india,china esp.)
But,gold will be between 1800-1900 for longer time, it seems.
Jerseycrew,most of …. Them are joined and really interesting time ahead,me think. :))