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You don't give up do you? Like a dog wiv a bone. Filtered for being a tedius, illiterut boar
Namu: That was your crazy statement not mine! As I said I will sulk off and lick my wounds but I will continue to follow Falcon and that includes this board. I have too much tied up in Falcon to not give it my full attention. With that said, I am glad we shall never hear from you again - not because you don't think like I do but because that would mean we see drilling in 2019.
'People' consist of several very reliable contacts. Sorry but I will not be disclosing who I talk to. I can assure you that there will be drilling this season WHEN the NT issues the permit. There are no material hold-ups or issues with the permit - just the NT government trying to get this right. Just the fact that Santos and Origin are both waiting for their permits is pretty clear evidence that the government is the one causing the delay. Is anything 100% when it comes to predicting what the government is going to do? We have 100% certainty on nothing other than the old saying - just death and taxes.
The good news in all of this is we shall soon know whether you should stay or should you go - kind of reminds me of Clash's song 'Should I Stay or Should I Go' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN1WwnEDWAM
Good Luck All - Except Namu :^)
Honestly WW... if drilling occurs in 2019, you’ll never hear from me again. How about the reciprocal? When drilling is officially delayed to 2020, you promise to disappear. Deal???
WW, your wrote “from the people I spoke to, Namu is wrong”...
Pls do enlighten us, are these the same “people “ who informed you of our forced buyer? Same who told you there wouldn’t be a capital raise in 2019? ;).
We****er , finally we see the light; get Origin off the ass or get rid of them ! They don't deserve any part of this play; just like Hess, kick them to the curb, I've said it for the last couple of years, you could always explore, just not frack they should of lived up to their commitment years ago ! POQ didn't enforce the contract ,but I can't think of much of anything he has done right, except enrich himself and ignore shareholders ang tell lies .
“In turn, the resultant lack of income flowing into Territory pockets is taking its toll on retailers, with turnover going backwards over the past 18 months. And at the same time housing construction has also been feeling the pinch. Both housing prices and rents have been on a slippery slope for the last four years as demand for housing has fallen away with the broader business cycle.”
Deloitte Access Economics’ says a lack of demand in the economy is keeping a lid on business investment as well.
Adding further to the forecast Deloitte says the latest data on engineering construction in the Top End makes for tough reading.
“The value of work done has fallen by more than four fifths from the peak in late 2014, returning to levels last seen around eight years ago,” the report says.
“In short, the end of construction at the NT’s largest ever project — the $45 billion Ichthys LNG project — has well and truly taken its toll.”
UPDATE: The Chief Minister has played down a scathing assessment that the NT economy is in a world of pain according to the latest Deloitte Access Economics’ quarterly Business Outlook released on Monday.
Despite the gloomy forecast Michael Gunner was optimistic when he addressed the media, insisting that the government was doing all it could to create more jobs after the wind down of the Inpex project.
He said they awarded 57 construction contracts valued at $31 million last month.
“The Inpex construction project was huge, it’s easily the biggest boom the Territory has ever had, and we knew coming out of the other side of that will hurt,” he said.
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“It absolutely hurts coming off that high … we know that in particular the construction sector is hurting.
“That’s why it’s important that we keep stimulating and creating construction sector jobs.”
EARLIER: The NT economy remains challenged but there are some signs of life, according to the latest Deloitte Access Economics’ quarterly Business Outlook released on Monday.
The report says outside of gas exports there is little other short-term good news for the Northern Territory which continues to lag behind most of Australia.
But Deliotte says there is some sunshine peeking through the otherwise gloomy outlook.
“The value of work done in the rail sector has made solid gains for a while now, while work underway in the road sector continues to shoot up,” it says. “Commercial construction in the Top End is showing a few signs of life. Building approvals also shot up from mid-2018 to early 2019, although they have come off the boil a little in recent months.”
The report highlights that job opportunities are still relatively few and far between and unemployment has climbed steadily over the past two years, with the only reason it is still below the national average being an even larger drop in the participation rate.
“The lack of good employment opportunities has resulted in a shrinkage in the size of the NT’s population,” the report says. “The number of Territorians leaving for greener pastures elsewhere in Australia continues to grow, while the number of migrants from overseas has also fallen.
Green: Negative comments are always welcome and can be valuable input - especially when people bother or can logically explain their thinking. It's the bomb throwers that won't explain their thinking that are a waste time.
If we had a way to wager, I would have to bet against you on the odds favoring Namu. From the people I talk to he is going to be dead wrong and gone. Origin/Santos are sitting on go - they are just waiting on the government's stamp of approval - you either believe the NT will be timely in the approval process or you don't . Politically speaking, I would find it hard to believe that the NT would put off this onshore gas industry for another year - not in the dire straits the NT is currently in job wise, GST wise and loss of population wise. The NT needs onshore gas as much as we do. The 2020 elections are right around the corner and Gunner needs to show that he is doing something positive for the economic disaster that is brewing.
If push comes to shove and time only allows for Origin to drill one well then one well they will drill. If they drill and frack one well then they certainly will have time to at least drill the second - even it it doesn't get fracked. If the NT issues the permit, IMO Falcon can force Origin to drill this year - not that Origin wouldn't want to anyway. Origin technically only has this year and next to complete the farmout agreement - the clock is running. I think Falcon would be willing to work with them but not if Origin just tried to close the door on this years drilling season while sitting on an approved permit. 2020 would have to be a very busy season.
Time will tell and at this point that time is growing thin - I agree with Namu on that one. We shall see - I'm betting we see drilling in the 2019 season.
The clock is ticking.
We have the NT Resources Week in early Sept at which Gunner will make the headline speech. All NT operating companies will be in attendance. Should Gunner choose, for it is a choice, not to award exploration approval to both Origin and Santos for 2019 he will be condemned and humiliated by the industry. Though bear in mind these are Labour politicians and this particular type of political animal is immune to feelings of shame, dishonour and embarrassment.
If Gunner reneges on approval I hope Canberra (Canavan and Morrisson) takes the necessary steps to undermine him and his grub colleagues
Unfortunately the odds favor naminanu on this one, I personally have a lot invested here but as I said earlier once the deception starts it flows quite freely. It takes many forms and silence is one of them, the capital raise was the first since the removal of the moratorium. Nobody likes to get their nose rubbed in it but certain people aren't thinking critically here, negative comments are part of the game and should be welcomed. Two to three weeks and its all over for this year, so lets just hope, that's all we have!!
I was basing my opinion on this part..."Once an application program is approved, the Permittee must provide at least 14 days’notice to the Landholder/Manager before commencing the exploration program."
But, like you said it may all be a moot point if Ensign doesn't move the rig till the EMP is given.
ITGuy: I see the 14 day requirement but that is required prior to exploration programs. A Exploration program is broken down into Reconnaissance Activities and Exploration Programs. Reconnaissance activities "do not involve any disturbance to the land or vegetation " and proceed the exploration program. We are in the Exploration Program phase and IMO have already met that 14 day requirement. Exploration includes seismic or drilling - we have already entered the property, staked locations and drilled water monitoring bores. I'm pretty sure Origin has done pad work and roads (that was approved through the civic EMP permit approval process). Pads/infrastructure doesn't happen overnight so I don't think Origin waits till after the final permit to begin that work.
In my opinion, once Origin gets notification that the final well EMP permit is approved the rig will be mobilized - that may take 14 days but I think timing will be more of a function of how long its takes the rig to cover 2600 miles! I still think drilling happens this 2019 season but it is beginning to look like August. After all this time another month will be by before we know it.
Thanks for the link.
Once the EMP is approved, there is a 14 day window before work can commence. That is the Ensign window to start the rig process.
Jfhealy: I can appreciate dead money - 4 years and waiting - Oh well hopefully the final payoff will make it worth the wait.
Speaking of friends I have talked to an operator who is very familiar with contracting rigs regarding what is in fact the industry standard. He said that even if a rig is contracted - 'arranged for' - (which may or may not require a fee) - a drilling contractor doesn't want that rig on location until he is able to put it to work. The daily on-site standby fees get very expensive in a hurry. If Origin is waiting for a permit before they can initiate drilling then in all likelihood that rig will remain in the rig yard until Origin has a firm date - I take that in this case to mean after the permit is issued. If that is the case we will likely know when the permit is issued and then can add a week to 10(?) days before it is moved on site and the bit hits the ground.
I don't like the idea of an August start date but if I'm right at least we will have a heads up that the permit was approved and then add days accordingly. Expensive daily stand-by fees would make our current wait for a permit while our rig is being 'pre-commissioned' in Perth fit with our situation. Sounds logical to me.
I am still of the opinion that Gunner will push this through for Santos and Origin. After all the promises to the Feds and the industry I can't imagine him welching on his word. For whatever you think of Gunner he does seem to try to live up to his promises.
Keep The Faith!
According to a June 3 online article in the Katherine Times, there were over 6,000 submissions filed by interested persons opposing the Origin EMP. It appears that most were submitted by the anti-fracking activists . In an attempt to be objective about what is transpiring, it is very possible that the NY government is trying to give due consideration to all complaints in order that they can withstand any judicial review of this process. This may be the best thing for all of us FOG shareholders.
In 2 weeks, you’re too late. This mystery of “2019 or 2020” will be concluded by then.
Shame on POQ, who has put his own shareholders second fiddle to appeasing Origin’s requests... I’ll leave it at that.
I have been speaking with some friends /FOG shareholders in Dublin ,the same people who last month told me they would not be surprised if there is no drilling this year .
It is my intention to travel to Ireland in about two weeks will be which will be three weeks post hip surgery , and depending on the views I get I will decide what % of my shares to sell , I always seem to have to much money tied up with FOG simply doing nothing .simply invested in PHP while we wait would at least give me a decent dividend GLA
2020 is Election Year if development of Beetaloo delayed, then opposition will have lots of ammo to go after Gunner. I really do not think it is in the Gunners best interest to sit and wait....
Namu: It's a deal!! If nothing happens until next April/May I will be off licking my wounds and you can have at the board. Sorry but I still don't understand your logic for an early 2020 raise but I 've about decided you are not sharing.
I hope you disappear forever - not for personal reasons but because of what will have triggered that exit. However, you have to promise not to come back as Namu2 :^)
At this point in July, there’s minimal margin of error before drilling gets officially pushed to April.
I believe POQ, and clearly Origin, are reasonably sure EMP ain’t happening soon. Since “reasonably sure” doesn’t equal “certainly”, they’re able to avoid issuing a PR.
Best best case: one well gets fracked this year. Again, get ready for an early 2020 capital raise. Naminanu reiterates his promise to leave forever, if drilling occurs in 2019. But when that “delay announcement” does happen in august, get ready for loads of Namu.
Newtofo: That has been my contention that the government is the hold-up. Santos applied before Origin but has yet to received their approval. Then you throw into the mix the mystery of the Origin retained Ensign rig being in Perth as of July 5th for 'pre-commissioning' which would have been a planned event. So if the rig is sent across the country for routine maintenance, Origin must have know the NT wasn't going to issue a permit until the rig was scheduled to be back on location - I'm guessing Origin has an expected date. This all stinks if Origin/Falcon know when to expect the permit but then failed to give some kind of guidance to their shareholders. For Origin this may not be a material event but if we get into August it certainly will become a material event for Falcon shareholders . As much as I support POQ, he has really let us down with this project continually dragging out without any type of explanation or reason - especially if that reason is know which appears to be the case. If POQ tells us May, then June, then July but now expects August shareholders are due a reason as to why the continual pushback. List me as a frustrated shareholder!
Whatever this NT Environment Minister, Eva Lawler, is doing by way of dragging her feet on approving the EMP's -- it appears that it is not just Origin specific. Santos, who filed their main EMP for drilling before Origin's EMP drilling application, has not been approved either at this point in time.
If the delay is not Origin specific, which seems to be the case, then approvals for both should be forthcoming -- as Gunner will be seriously risking re-election if both Santos and Origin are delayed another year. Matt Canavan and the Feds will start cutting funding again, and the so-called NT gas chemicals initiative will be dead in the water as any faith that Gunner can get things done in the NT will be gone and industrial conglomerates will look elsewhere.........................