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Ok, not to worry. Closing 29th Nov
Can anyone please tell me the tender offer date?
As we get closer to the tender offer date a live telegram discussion group has been set up, everyone is welcome to join.
Just replace the underscores _ with slashes /
https:__t.me_joinchat_wHVs5jy-9cliYmQ0
I'm averaged at 144p so a long way to go before I make anything on this. So I won't be selling.
I don't believe there was any promise of 41p/share. Just commentary on the equivalent.
What was declared was a return of £500m to shareholders. Nothing about how it would be returned, until of course yesterday. I know the typical expectation would be you get ~41p and you get to keep your shares. I can also see the political/media/PR fall out if this was all issued as Dividend (similar to if Water companies were to issue one right now with whats going on in Parliament)
So just follow the money and make sure they do somehow 'return' £500m. The value proposition might be in the cancellation of shares.
Great for anybody who bought sub £1 to be honest. As it's still at least a 5% increase - probably a lot more depending when you bought. Work it out annualised and you'll be pleased.
We know Coast Capital have committed to tendering all of theirs. That's c13% we know will be bought and should be cancelled. Add to that those that had bought at say 50-60p and were looking to cash out once doubled.
So I would hazard a guess of at least 15% of shares being taken out of circulation.
The difficulty is knowing what the market will price the share at once we know the effective cut-off date for eligibility.
Damofarl. Thank you for your detailed responce. As a fairly new investor and not yet fully understanding all matters I took the 41p as a return in dividends to investors. The way First are going about it is new to me. I bought more shares under the wrong illusion but cannot complain at the rise in the sp. I will hold and not sell as I hold travel related shares ( i am retired travel agent) and I believe in a long term recovery over maybe 3 or 4 years. Cheers J
pers; as for the directors stating they won't be selling, i think that's a positive...indicative that they see gravy coming down the line. If anyone is in a position to know where FGP is heading its them, not you or I.
As for being one sided, from a post not far down - " [albeit i dont think the mgmt have the skillset to do themselves whilst enjoying the gravy train]". I've no tunnel vision - all the puns intended!
pers; I don't have any dislike for the 'free' 41p offer, only a dislike to the perception it is free - it's not. it's merely part of the value/assets reflected in the SP. As for the commitment to shareholders, one could argue they have delivered; the 41p statement didn't say it was a return of 41p, but a return of value of £500 million - ("The Board intends to increase the proposed return of value to shareholders to £500m (equivalent to c.41p per share) from £365m."). The 'return' is in the share price, which is considerably higher than it was pre sale announcement(s). I agree that you can't blame any investor for buying (more) shares thinking they are on a winner (i added to pre announcement shares), but if it looks too good to be true it usually is, and i've no stock for people crying foul because they didn't look under the bonnet before driving their buys through. You call that good financial practice, i call that gambling, when one selectively focuses on the bit they want showing scant disregard to related factors.
" Yes I was interested in the business thats why I had shares to start with"; great. So if you've bought post sale announcement, youve made a few quid, pre owned maybe are clawing back losses, either way that 'commitment' has fortunesd you. I owed shares prior to the initial announcement, purchased and sold further throughtout the last 6 months, and still own shares, albeit it a residual amount as i sold today. I sold today, because many i bought were on the back of the 30p announcement. At the time that equated to about 40% of the prevelant SP, and i took the decision, AT PURCHASE, based on experience of previous 'cash returns/special divis' etc, that ultimately the SP would rise into the date, and drop back by an amount equal/greater than the return/divi, and set a 20% increase on purchase.
I don't defend/champion FGP blindly, indeed at all. I think the 'return' has been cack handed, but with a mind to avoiding 'bumper payout' headlines from unions/politicians. The fact that you/many are asking, wheres the 41p suggests they have acheived that. I merely questioning the surprise. To give a recent example, Tesco on the sale of their Asian business returned a special dividend to shareholders, in February. The share price has yet to recover to the pre payment SP 8 months later. (i own TSCO shares). Because, as with FGP, that return was within the SP at the point of payment. Anyone surprised/disappointed only has themselves to look to, for not understanding the politics inherent in this share, the mechanics of shares rising into a payout/dividend then dropping by a concomitant amount, and the cackhanded corporate mgmt inherent here. I have no flag for FGP, i'm just questioning disappointment naivety.
Wow - there's a lot of confusion here. I think we have to go back to basics here. A share price has two basic components: its Net Asset Value and its ability to make profit/generate cash. In the case of First Group it has sold a chunk of its assets in the US. It did moderately well with the deal versus the embedded value of those assets. It then made the decision that the best use of the funds generated by the sales was largely to return them to shareholders (after reducing debt etc). Once those funds are returned, then the NAV of the business will by definition reduce. Whether it achieves that through a Special Divi, or share buybacks is not hugely significant: if it returns 41p per share, then the NAV per share will immediately reduce by the same amount and, all else being equal, the share price with it!
The key long term decision for everybody, should therefore be what will the future cash/profit generating capabilities of the new-streamlined FGP be? Personally I think there will be some short term selling pressures post the Tender, but that the medium-term looks pretty good. This is a very murky crystal ball right now though!
Damofari... why have you such a dislike for the "Free" 41p offer ?? It isnt a Free offer but a promise by First. They made that commitment to shareholdes so you cannot blame any investor who acts accordingly and buys mores shares. Thats not greed but good financial practice (or so we thought) . Yes I was interested in the business thats why I had shares to start with. Maybe you dont have shares ... I really dont know why you are trying to be so one sided towards First here.
I cant complain too much (I cant complain at all really!) as I only have 5,500 and almost half of those were bought for 28p each. And as they were done through a profit related pay scheme when FGP took over GMBuses those who bought the shares paid less income tax and so they were in effect free.
hoverfly; yes, 2 years ago we were at £1.30ish and the drop was covid produced. Taking that the govt has (continues) to bankroll their costs, passenger numbers are now at +70% of pre covid levels, one would have expected it to return to say 70% of that SP without the US sale, say 94p. That prior to todays announcement, and the subsequent rise today, the share price was around 90p suggests that either sentiment is generally poor on the group as it appears to disregard the 41p, or that without the 41p the poor sentiment to the group would have been more obvious in a dropping /lower SP.
I don't know which it is, but i feel without the 41p this would have been a lot lower than it was yesterday, falsely bolstered by the allure of a 'free' 41p, the number of investors that bought for a quicl buck/free ride. Personally, not withstanding my concerns over inefficient/overpayed mgmt, i think this is underrated. If this was truly valued in its SP, because the underlying businesses were valued, this would be at 1.35 - that it isnt shows people aren't interested in the business only the 'free' 41p
But wern't the lows of last year all down to the covid panic, prior to that was over £1. And is all the recovery from last years low simply all down to the fact they sold off their USA interests might the SP not have been on the way up anyway.
pers; my argument does work for precisely the reasons you suggest it doesn't. Without the 41p this share would have stagnated at best, probably dropped. The 41p stopped in from doing so, caused it to rise, because of the number of naive people looking at a 'free'' 41p that drove it otherwise. To put into context this 41p is equivalent to 10 years worth of profits on which you would (if lucky) have got a 1p a year in dividends. To expect 41p in a few months, for nothing, is laughable in that context,
pers; i've read all the threads, and contributed a few too; the fair few disappointed you refer to, include many who didn't take the time to understand the business, its profitability (or lack of), and only took the time to get excited about a 'free' 41p. Those that did, have got their 41p in their share price appreciation over the last 6 months, having understood the company, took a long term view, including the sale that has constituted this 41p, rather than a quick naive punt on a quick buck. Frankly, anyone that has done that in the last 3 months has made 10%, so i don't think anyone has been hoodwinked/misled. As i have stated before, in one of my posts, it would have been cleaner to just do a 41p special divi and let the market decide - if you'd like t to take the time to read it, you may see why i think they didn't. You've made a good profit - what's not to be happy?
The recent high SP is because more investors have bought .. I agree ... but share prices go up and down and yes It may be 40p up now but thats not the same as the return of 40p dividend to investers paid by First. Suppose the SP had not gone up what would you say then. To me your aguement doesnt work. As others have said here.. "we want our 40P per share"
pers; a year ago, prior to this 41p announcement the share was 40p, considered fair value (undervalued to me but thats what the market said). Thats a rise of 64p - theres your 41p ; you've only been decieved by thinking the 41p was 'free' - it isn't, it's already embedded in the (rise) in the share price.
loddekelad; yes, it is more confusing than it needed to be, but actually, it's not that confusing. You just need to decide how you feel about FGP going forward.
Do you think they will grow/propser/pay dividends, then hold (albeit you might trade before/after the cut off day to boost).
If not take the recent increase to bag a profit/limit losses (albeit, again, you might trade before/after the cut off day to boost).
Frankly, if your confused by the announcements AND the replies you shouldn't be in FGP or probably anything. For instance, without the 41p announcement, how many less investors would be here? Investors that drove up the price from where it might have otherwised drifted to without. Anyone who has bought since the 41p was proposed have made 14p, long term holders are still nursing considerable losses. The 41p is inbedded in the share price - if you don't believe in FGP's potential why are you sursprised you didn't 'get' your 41p?
We were offered a 41% bonus on shares FACT. I was not "taking a chance" . I am let down by First moving the goal posts.
What research was necessary ..... I am not wanting the world then crying.. I am wanting what First promised,.. so are many others if you read the threads here .
pers; i've no sympathy whatsoever.
"...To be fair I didnt and dont know what the close out date for holding shares was or is but I took the chance anyway"
Do you feel let down that you took a chance you don't feel has worked out, or let down that you was seduced by a 'free' 41p without researching it, it's implications?
Fine take a chance; congrats if it works out.....can't expect sympathy if you don't think it has. i mean if you've been buying in the last few weeks, thats a 15% profit, annualised = 60%. Thats not greed, thats wanting the world and crying when you don't get it.
I agree and I openly admit I have over the last few months I have been buying First shares with a view to a 41p extra return. That sounds greedy but I guess I am not alone. To be fair I didnt and dont know what the close out date for holding shares was or is but I took the chance anyway. I feel let down now and we must remember this carrot of 41% was dangled to approve the recent sell offs they did in the USA.. Thanks First !!
I also am totally confused.... by some of the replies as much as by the announcement. I still want my 41 p per share (or maybe more!) and keep my shares. So has the promised 41 p just vanished!!?? Sounds a bit fraudulent to me!
105p is the tender offer, they will see how many investors sell up, then next step will be a £50 Million Share Buy Back at what the market rate the SP is, and then finally if there is still surplus cash left then a special dividend.
Glad to see I am not the only person who is struggling to understand this.
From my stand point I have an average share price of 103p and the 105 offer on my tiny holding is hardly anything. any LTH for this share would likely be under the water too, seems a silly way to repay the PI
So where's the 41p per share or whatever it was?
I know I just do not know what to do myself