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Just keep it simple. Buy good businesses at below what you believe they're worth. The same principles apply today as was the case 50 years ago. The big change today as the availability of information which reduces the number of opportunities. But the same principles apply.
Genious, Can't agree with you there.
Based on what you said this share should be trading 10pplus.
The sp is a mix of sentiment, charts, day traders, ramping and deramping which makes this fun and frustrating at times.
Beware the expression "new paradigm" when associated with company valuations - it usually heralds a crash.
Morning Gen,
So based on your view, what does that mean for example, Tesla? Do you look at the SP 1 month ago or today or tomorrow? How does the SP help in deciding what price to pay at the moment.
If nothing else it highlights what a gamble stock picking really is!
I honestly think we are in a new era (and it didn't just start last week), where what happened before, as best summarised by the approach of say, Buffett, of LTB&H being the surest way to success, isn't really valid any more, (or at least presently).
I couldn't disagree more. The market will typically price based on expectations of 6+ months from today. Also not sure I agree that inaccurate pricing is a 'problem' but more an opportunity.
I don't think so Goodapple, I think the SP reflects the company on that day, or even just that moment. I don't think you can draw an inference about the medium long term direction of the company.
(Also, the SP and the company are related but not always that closely. Sometime like an estrange sibling , more often like a distant 2nd cousin and that's an important distinction I think).
That for me, is the problem with value investing, not the logic of it but just the reality, that the SP is not always and in fact in my experience rarely, reflects what's going on in the company in question)
The only reason I'm interested in the SP's response on the 18th is that it will reflect Mr Market's view on the performance and prospects for the medium/longer term.
I hope to see that it is positive, and do not see it as an end in itself since I have faith that CC is the right person in the chair and she has a good team around her.
I think the next year or two are going to be very interesting for Eve.
@Wyndrum, I'd hold Eve till I am comfortable with the vision, the day I loose faith in the business model, team or anything fundamental I would exit irrespective of the SP at that point 3p or 30p. If that helps.
As its the weekend:
Goodapple asks " what closing price on the day of results - 18th March?"
Why? is anybody selling on that day? Because if you are not, who cares?
However its a good question as in, what price would you (the individual) sell at and when?
If you can't answer that question then I think its worth contemplating: The (individual) has invested a sum of money, probably £1000's, in a company and is not sure what price to sell at or when.
Some will argue that its long term ie years, but that has always smacked to me of avoiding the question: By all means say 10 years and 150p per share. However for it to mean something then the individual should have a thought process that will justify a 150p SP in a 10 year time frame, otherwise its a worthless statement.
I only mention this because many investors that bother to post and enjoy BB's, tend not to be quite so LTB&H as they imagine (otherwise why would you check a BB daily and comment on the short term prospects and SP?)
It's a difficult answer to an easy question because ultimately we can't forecast the future, but I would argue that this part of the plan is normally somewhat over looked and yet its the part of the plan that crystallises the gain and is the whole point of the initial purchase.
fwiw and for my part (and ignore my time frames, because its each to his own), if a share does what I though either ahead or on time, then I simply look at it in a fresh light and imagine I had sold, would I buy at this "new", higher price. If the answer is yes, then fairly obviously I hold for a bit longer, but I will have a new time frame, maybe to the next set of results or a new price target I think it will most likely now achieve.
But my plan is not the point. The point is just to have one.
So, if you haven't thought about it, maybe it might be a worthwhile exercise?
Just a bit of fun Dubman
I think it's a bit silly to try and guess prices, especially short term - I just put a low bid in to counter what I expected to be a stream of crazy high numbers.
The big question is what closing price on the day of results - 18th March?
Guess it's you Dubman.
Where do you see the sp end of next week?
If think it will trade between 5.75 and 6.80p through the week.
Was there a referee for the 'Guess the price at the end of the week' competition? If so, who won?