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GLG good point, the naysayers are trying it shell doubt, but all the evidence points a a massive deal
Morning Toon. Everyone’s entitled to their opinion but when people are on he regularly trying to kill positivity where Eurasia is concerned I find it a bit suspect. Some of the £50 valuation are a bit far fetched I agree but the way the worlds going Eurasia is in the middle of a perfect storm.
In hindsight I’m glad this sale has taken so long as the company is in a stronger position financially than it was 12 months ago, which considering how savvy the BoD are and sparing no expense employing DLA Piper and UBS can only mean a higher sale price than maybe what would have been put forward 12 months ago. If a sale wasn’t going to happen the BoD would have figured that out after already having CITIC engaged for 6 months and no doubt would have activated the Sinosteel contract to get MT in to production, but they haven’t. The last we heard they are progressing multiple non-binding offers, to binding offer, that was just under 2 months ago. Considering UNS are working on a success fee basis and handing negotiations on Eurasia’s behalf I don’t think they’ll be sat around waiting for the phone to ring. This has got to conclude sometime, who knows when but it’s closer than it was yesterday
Thanks Crabby and good morning to you to!
Just had a look at your posting history toon and you remind me of a dog chasing passing cars. You make noise and sarcastic comments to what other people have said but you don’t really add anything Eurasia related yourself of value, certainly not positive.
Another Hairy Harris
In 1 minutes we will, lol heres hoping.
EUA have not released any news on binding offers.
Yes, 177.
Have we had any binding offers yet ???
Lancerman ...'the Chinese can outbid them all day long IF they want it' I totally agree with your statement !
I made one a while ago in which i stated that ' If NN don't buy Eua that means they have been outbid '
I think you would agree that NN would love another asset close to one of their hubs and that they will pay a pretty penny for that privilege . Knowing that the perceived rate would be 8 - 12 % of total value as an offer for EUA we could guess that in a bidding war that either one may well bid up to 20% .
Hoochy
Months of watching this board pitch in and get binned phish off.
Lancermannn
“ binding offers “ in my opinion , the buyer/s are making an offer to purchase at such and such price , which if a seller accepted the buyer is bound to pay it , if not accepted then offer can be raised , match/increased/ better offers , ( I LIKE COMMERS) . So yes , In my opinion, a bidding war could ensue .
My user name is an opus to my football allegiance and forename .
Lancer, thanks for your views, I appreciate them.
ATB, Pete
'Pete, I do think it is a consortium bid/winner now'
Agreed, the question now is who, like Mac said, can NN really afford to throw away the opportunity of MT?
And if NN are part of a consortium to buy, who else is involved?
It is really interesting and very exciting at the same time.
Lancerman - I concur with your opinion here regards a consortium and any counter-bid would be contested in Court. The bidders have had plenty of time to put in their best offers. I am also fairly certain there is some wording in the contract that if anyone makes a counter-bid they would have to compensate the original winning bidder a certain sum - which, in effect, would cost them a lot more than just their offer. Uneconomical.
IMO, I believe it will be a consortium with partial state financial backing (Russian) but would not discount a Russian-Sino consortium deal either.
Cannot see what EUA have being owned by anyone other than the Russians (either wholly or with a majority interest). The MDA being set up aligns with this.
One day closer to conclusion. Patience will prevail :)
GLA.
Fully agree CAW, things have changed more rapidly than could have been predicted imho. Most things are now on the EU's critical raw materials list, that in itself adds its own dynamic to the situation right the way to 2050.
GLA
“That is what a binding contract is. That is my opinion. GL”
Who talking about contract , look at it as a binding offer.
NN macp 50B.............could by EUA with change from its pockets.
PGM forecast prices will be one of the small prints being ironed out.
Buying company will have valuation as x, EUA y and z being in between which is what the offer will be based on. Buying company will want z to be as close to x as possible and vice versa.
In fact if the PGM's had remained level for the last 9 months this will probably have been over 3 months ago IMO
GLA
Take Rhodium for example, they will have predicted the bull run, but what is questionable is if they predicted such a rapid bull run to the level it is currently sat. Season starts and WK is churning Rhodium out at that price level, it's far greater than last seasons, so instantly effects the cash flow in a positive manner.
GLA
Pacer, economic studies valuing resources will use a trailing average so the PGM rally will be a positive just as the Coronavirus dip will impact negatively. That will give the analysts a reasonable assessment of what is a fair price to base valuations on. The daily spot price certainly isn't doing us any harm as it must impact on the sentiment of bidders but in terms of number crunching only as it hauls up the trailing average.
Non-binding to binding, if there are large changes in metal pricing forecasts then i'm fairly sure any buyer would adjust their final binding deal offer accordingly. We've only received non-binding offers to date, we are yet to hear of the binding offers landing. The most probable valuation model is the discounted cash flow, that values things on a projected basis and discounts back to today, therefore, if the future metal price forecast changes so does the DCF valuation.
GLA
Lancer, what’s your view on a consortium bid, or do you think just one company to buy us out?
ATB, Pete
You mean to say we don’t have a never ending fsp?!
I keep seeing posts about how much the PGMs have increased in price and how that could increase the sale price etc
But surely the sale price would of been agreed several weeks ago so surely the last few weeks are irrelevant.
Am I correct in my thinking?