The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
IJWT, you are absolutely correct and I was fully aware of that, but thought my comments were already verbose enough without labouring the detail. The discussion at the time was that Hammerhead might jump the queue and be the third area to be developed if I remember correctly. This gained traction when it became clear that HH-2 and 3 were to be drilled, but the order appears to have reverted with Payara up instead if I'm not mistaken. Not sure why Hammerhead came to the fore and then receeded again. Perhaps it was due to the heavy nature of the oil vis-a-vis the other discoveries, or perhaps speculation just got ahead of itself and that was never the intention of Exxon and partners.
Phoebus
Dont think anything has jumped the queue over Hammerhead, based on darling conducted believe it was always envisaged to be the 4th or 5th FPSO on the block.
Think your May drilling date is bang on.
Believe they may drill Rappu also with a Jack up but only 2 with the big boys kit.
There are idiots on both sides of the argument though. To my knowledge Exxon/Hess have not yet given the go ahead for FPSO development on Hammerhead, and I was in fact rather diappointed when other prospects jumped the queue, yet plenty of bulls are pumping that line. If any sources state otherwise I am all ears.
They are also assuming that the oil in Hammerhead and Jethro is identical. We don't know that yet as the specifics haven't been given for either of them. We know Jethro is very high sulphur, but there has been no indication so far that Hammerhead is. One note already suggested the high sulpur content could be due to different rock types in parts of Orinduik.
Also, many have been saying that Jethro is OK because Bentley is OK. Bentley has not been developed yet and Bentley is not very high sulphur so the comparison is flawed.
As for saying it's a buy because a broker note has downgraded it to 170p or because Gil says so is laughable. After his recent performance a healthy dose of scepticism is in order for Pinch of Saltzman.
Currently (at 62p) ECO is only 4p below the level it was prior to Jethro results. The results have been positive and negative. Oil has been found, but is of low grade and commericality is in doubt. Cash has gone out the door and Gil has lost a big chunk of credibility. Meanwhile, we have several catalysts to look forward to, CPR, Carapa and 2020 drilling.
We were told to much fanfare at 150p plus that the pending CPR will showcase more tertiary prospects and increase the COS of existing ones. I for one was really excited about the CPR upgrade, which is why I kept adding all the way down to 130p. However, what is the value of these upgrades if the targets are all heavy oil with a high sulphur content? Sadly, I just don't see the CPR upgrade as being that big a deal anymore. If they can upgrade the Cretaceous COS on the back of Carapa success then great, but that will take siginificantly longer than a few weeks to assess IMO.
Altough Carapa is only 15% COS I expect they will discover something, but will they withhold data again and will the market been more cautious of assigning any value if they do? Might take a while for it to affect the SP in a meaningful way.
Drilling in 2020 will definitely help the SP, but how long will we have to wait? Gil has already told us that after the Carapa result they will reprocess all the 3D in conjunction with the 3 well results then decide on a drilling plan. Carapa is due towards the end of the year according to TLW, so I would expect reprocessing and planning to be done perhaps by February. With three months lead lime to drilling I would expect May at the earliest. Also, the last numbers I heard from Gil were that ECO is fully funded for 4 more wells and has received a drilling proposal for 2 wells in 2020.
There are positives and negatives here and it it important to see both sides. Wildly optimistic ramping is just as irritating as widly pessimist negatvity
What's false?
Lol the idiots are bk in full force I see.. Exxon already said hammerhead was commercial, no need to post false info...
Brilliant analysis!! That is what Exxon and Hess think about Hammerhead.....extraordinary the nonsense people spout!
Agree. The Tertiary is dead but the Cretaceous is more than alive and kicking.
Is Carapa not a 15% chance of success?
Is that not a big "if" then to contribute to getting it above £1?
Where do posters think price will drop if Carapa is unsuccessful?
buying above full offer - mm's limiting buying online lol
It will be bumpy and I don’t see us reaching 95p until the final results are out... sp of high 60s is max I can see right now.. but if the results and updated cpr are good and carapa is a discovery then we will bk above £1 easy
is 95p heres hoping