The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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My take, which is not based on I depth is that the forecast for the full year is £10M or there about and the company will turn a profit. Made complicated in that revenues are weighted towards second half of year.
The Chinese opportunities are not in the forecast - conservative approach plus even if deal is signed now will probably not impact until next year (milestone payment would be good). However, if (and that is still a IF) deal is signed that next years forecast should be very tasty.
Through breath test will qualify as a medical device. Lots of people going down this route based on VOCs but I think Deepverge may have an advantage when considering their recognition approach and AI. However, it takes time to fine tune an accurate device (measuring systems is very difficult) and then a trial is required - this is to meet regulatory requirements first CE Mark I think. Doesn't happen quickly. Cannot see any reason for lack of info but perhaps trying to keep competition guessing. I wouldn't bet the house on this ever getting to market and if it does I think its impact goes well beyond Covid - thus extending timelines further.
The skin trust thing seems to be gearing up for Xmas - lot of investment going in but I'm not their target market (I have remarkably beautiful leather type skin that you could make travel cases out of).
For me it is a buy and hold - higher risk than waiting for more info but I also think that thus years arrival at profit combined with the noises re wastewater justify buying.
On a different note GB states no fund cause THIS year but maybe he is waiting for a higher price - if he is confident then waiting is justified. Await Micrisaic results - their gross margin will point to whether Deepverge will make a move - the MWG model of share purchase wouldn't require a fund raise and would give vertical integration benefits.
Ok… so phase 3 complete for PD. So Presumably still negotiating terms…. May get some sort of an update in q4 i suppose.
Just looking out for potential tangible rns which can stop this slippery slope.
Thanks anyway.
Sharkfund, not sure how it can be clearer. Success confirmed June. June after April. Nature of deal being discussed impacted by success as level of risk to China Resources decreases...
RNS Number : 7840W Deepverge PLC 28 April 2021
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/DVRG/deepverge-signs-mou-for-jv-with-china-resources/14954347
RNS Number : 9129C Deepverge PLC 24 June 2021
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/DVRG/microtox-successful-phase-3-field-trials/15030475
For video:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/953252/deepverge-wastewater-covid-19-detection-technology-successfully-completes-trials-953252.html
If you have an account Q&A available at https://www.investormeetcompany.com/ .
Thanks for the pointers t.rat.
Sorry - Just does not appear to be clear what is going on. I thought phase 3 was for the breath test not the PD. That appears now separate and by ‘expanding the scope’ - China have basically said they need to monitor more pathogens? That right? So we are now dependent on this so-called phase 3 is successful we may get orders from China on the PD? Hope this means additional revenue for the improved capability and no more delays to get a contract in place. Can’t help but feel we should have focused are resources on doing this before we embarked on breath test. But hey - let’s hope we get this all cleared up in final quarter (presentation suggests early prt of the quarter too - so sometime October….). Fingers crossed.
https://www.deepverge.com/investors/ worth a visit:
https://www.deepverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Deepverge-2021-AGM-Presentation.pdf
Page 8 re:PD:
2021 Aug - Dec - Version 2 - 100+ units withmotorised optical alignment
https://youtu.be/i7Jx5-k0chI
https://www.deepverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deepvergeplc_Research_Update_3August2021__FINAL_BGv2.pdf
https://www.deepverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/DeepVerge-Interim-Report-2021-Final.pdf
https://youtu.be/lQOpoEzAZpc
Been away for a bit… so I may have missed stuff - would appreciate any gaps filled in.
When are we expecting an update to this deal? I must have missed it in the RNS? Thought this was gonna be announced back in June and operational in October. Seems to have slipped a quarter - did anyone get a sense of this is rolling in to next year? There were at least ‘2 multi million pound opportunities’ due on top of the 2021 forecast. I don’t believe either have been come in?
Does that mean TP’s 2022 revenues need to be revised?
Seems breath test has also moved into next year - hopefully this will be able to be commercialised! STC all about next year too (at the earliest) since no numbers forthcoming in presentation (no NDA in saying that we have processed x thousand so far and expect to fulfil capacity 6-12m after launch. Bit strange now we talk about 2/3 division when months ago it’s 4 divisions.
I have backed this one big over the last few years and it’s all becoming a bit disappointing. Does not help by comparing apples and pears on the % y-o-y growth - that’s a little insulting. £10m will be hit right?
Parity - is this a non starter?
Msys - is this now going to be be the focus?
Michigan deal going to extend? Thought there was some usa promotion from the water rising institute?
Come on Gerry, the support is there but need to deliver on the big stuff. Time to start knocking the ball out of the park…. (Don’t think we can start calling this ‘overnight’ success as we run into years….)