If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2019/04/30/How-much-is-rum-worth-in-the-UK-alcohol-market
Rum sales in the UK keep climbing which is great, but so does the completion - Bicardi has moved into this space quite aggressively.
Checked out LWCs website - they supply wholesale to pubs, clubs and bars throughout the UK.
They have over 200 rums and 350 gins. Unless you are established or get on their offers page it is difficult for smaller brands to compete.
Unfortunately can see the share price declining further - IMHO!!
IMHO Blackwoods is struggling to create a niche in the crowded Gin market. It's a great gin, but then Betamax was better than VHS and we all know what happened there.
To be a success a product needs to show year on year improvement and this is factored into the share price - once a growth stock stops growing the market can be ruthless - I hold a retail company that has just made £1.5m profit and is valued at £13m and is growing by 20% a year.
The gin market is still growing - see below. If Blackwoods is not that's a massive red flag to me. Red Leg is a great product and had great coverage but the rum market is smaller so it is important that Distil have a decent piece of other markets. It currently does not.
In the year ending 31 March 2018, UK gin sales rose by 28% in volume and by 33% in value to reach £1.5 billion, meaning that sales have more than doubled in value in five years (£696m y/e March 2013).
It's because Blackwoods Gin posted a massive 32% increase in volumes sales the prior year. I don't expect small and local stores to stock Distil products but all the large stores in my area have both Blackwoods and RedLeg on the shelves..
I guess we will see how they are getting on over the next several months.. and if the share price is still sub 2p I'll calm down.
There is always silver lining after storm. The forecast for the whole year is unchanged regardless of last quarter's drop in revenue. As long as Distil produces breakeven and remain cash positive every year, it will be regarded as positive aim listed company. Share price of Distil has been on the down side since micro fund manager Miton plc sold their stocks across the board (not just Distil) last year. It is matter of time that Distil's shares will go up when funds like Miton will start buying rising star like Distil plc or a deal with major USA distributorship or a large drink company acquires one brand or whole company.
I think DaveT you need to calm down and read the last few RNS's - sales are down and profits have flatlined - that's a fact.
On a P/E of over 30 this is not oversold.
Blackwoods has not performed well - fact (read the year end RNS). It is not in my local Tesco's (one large one medium) nor my local Asda. I believe Morrisons are it's biggest stockist. As I said I have seen it at Wetherspoons but at no other pub - chain or independent!! And even if it is in every shop and pub in the country based on declining revenues it appears people aren't buying it!!
Essentially Distil is a one brand company as the majority of its revenue and profit come from 1 product. How is the company going to grow using £160k profits??
You need to get out more.. Blackwoods is an excellent gin and is sold by all the top supermarkets in the UK - they also managed to get it behind the bar at Wetherspoons (same goes for RedLeg)... they've got money in the bank and make a profit and now have a Mcap of only £5m.. yes it's been well oversold.
Spending a comparative small fortune pushing it at all the independant ****tail bars hasn't paid off (yet).. unless you were the one visiting and taste testing.. but like you say, RedLeg is currently the main brand and it's for sale at the right price - nobody knows what that is but historical comparatives are anything between £20m and £50m so I'm happy to hold and add (lots) more at this price.
GLA
why is this oversold? based on pure financials e.g P/E it is still overpriced and revenues are not growing.
Distil is unfortunately a 1 brand company (Red Leg) and for example Blackwood has failed to make a mark in the albeit crowded but large gin market. Saw it in a Wetherspoons recently - first time I've seen it anywhere for ages.
It is profitable (just) and Red Leg is great so it is not all doom and gloom but unless the next trading update is very positive this may have further to fall
Diageo has signed a sponsorship deal in the US that will see its Captain Morgan rum brand assume 'official spiced rum' status with Major League Soccer. I believe Distil's chairman Don Goulding used to be a director at Diageo, he should take note.
Back into Dis after a year, feel its oversold and right time to invest here...IMO