Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
‘Wait till the American wake up’
To be fair it does rise 4% every day when the Americans wake up, shake it didn’t have the legs today, looked like it was going blue at one point. Feel like we are due a blue day, even a little one.
Nope, not me
Always good to get a broad range of opinions/valuations Devilbhoy, didn’t know you had the experience you just mentioned.
Between the two extremes of COPL is going nowhere, the discovery won’t get confirmed and Arthur MILLHOLLAND is the second coming, what is the value with your professional hat on of COPL if Ryder Scott say discovery is 1.9B?
Here’s a list for easy copy and paste reference:
Wait until the Americans wake up
I wouldn’t want to be out of this over the weekend
I’ve received an email from “insert name here” and they have disclosed market sensitive information to me (a complete random)
The MMs are walking this down
Etc.
Etc.
I don't think so, being a discretionary fund manager myself I think that I can tell when a Bhoy is simply all at sea !
I’ll wager a hell of a lot that I know more than you having managed the International Prime Brokerage team at one of the largest investment banks in the world.
You just repeat parrot fashion the same bull**** posted on every board because it suits your narrative.
Devilboy, you clearly know bugger all about how intuitions and large oil companies work when it comes to investment! A PI plays with his own money. He has no one else to answer to. An analyst at an institution invests following robust analysis. They are investing other people's money and are accountable. It is not a whim. Similarly a JV partner would be investing very heavily in a project - several £m. Do you seriously expect board approval for such an investment with no CPR, no IRR and no idea of cashflow and NPV. What a dick!
Old news. Why repost something that is available by reading the RNS from 10 January 2022?
10/01/2022 - Operational update - Barron Flats Shannon Unit
The Barron Flats Shannon Unit continue to perform beyond COPL's initial expectations with crude oil production running at around 2,000 bbl./d The increase in production since the asset was acquired is due to the enhanced gas injection program which commenced on April 1st 2021....... more
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-overseas-petroleum-ltd-copl-070000571.html
“It is why the institutions are not investing yet as they don't know what to pay.”
It’s bull**** statements like this that **** me off. You present your opinion as fact. Unless you are in a position within a potential institutional investor to have first hand knowledge that this it the reason then don’t make statements that read as statements of fact.
Friday's are good
FOMOF are good
Momentum is becomming good
Already in productoin and rising all good
A surprise RNS any day would be good
Good luck everyone
Newlunar, I think you have missed the point. There are no figures that are more "realistic". There is no CPR, No known extraction rate and no JV partner. One is thus left to make certain assumptions. Any one assumption can massively change NPV and therefore sp. It is why the institutions are not investing yet as they don't know what to pay.
God forbid anyone put more realistic numbers into the formula.
HFB - normal service also resumed on LSE, after threatening to turn blue around 4pm, sells kicked in to kick us!
As you say, can’t last forever and the pattern will be broken, no way can our assets be ignored.
Funny, we are always bullish regarding Friday, now sentiment is low considering how this week has gone, we may get caught out by surprise.
We are still here, in the 30’s and with a load still to be priced in.
Using the calculation below the reason why a JV has such an impact on NPV is that a) it provides expertise and funding but also b) It increases the speed of extraction. When doing an NPV one typically discounts the value of each barrel by circa 10% per annum. Thus slow extraction has a massive impact. I have used $1 per barrel as being ultra conservative. Clearly if a JV occurred and production was expediated a much higher NPV and therefore SP would apply and it is for this reason that others have produced far higher mcap with resultant SP. Again I hope that this is helpful. People are not ramping when they come up with £1bn plus valuations it is all in the assumptions but the upside is crystal clear.
I don't do fantasy numbers but in terms of commenting on this subject I would refer posters to calculations based on IRR and NPV. The whole exercise is designed to work out the current value of the assets taking into account costs of extraction and how fast. The lower the costs and the faster the extraction the higher NPV for the same size of oil reserve. Since much of the above is unknown an accurate calculation is currently impossible which is why the big boys will only play post CPR. But I would simply say this. Our MCAP is currently circa £60m. If we have 1bn barrels confirmed recoverable and then assume our share is 50% that is 500m barrels. If each barrel is valued at just 1$ in terms of NPV the company would be worth $500m which is £375m. Thus even taking what is deliberately a very conservative basis the share should 6 bag post CPR. One can come up with different calculations but this was my most pessimistic calculation on which I invested. I hope it is useful
Shaa
yep , looks like normal service has been resumed , mrex here an Td over
the pond
TD back to playing with themselves with highest bid and lowest ask in control
60k v 55k for them
Tomorrow , well we have all been waiting for FOMOF for a year , could we finally
get one LOL
Fear
Of
Missing
Out
Friday
Like coke , its a real thing, except on copl another exemption certificate
it would appear
;))
The pilot vertical deeps test well was never purposed to be a production well
Dakota was just available from location , prob would have hooked up the
Frontier (1-4) , if not crumbly at test well location
Horizontal wells the name of the game for the Deeps zones, take this Dakota
as bonus production only and not reflective of ANYTHING.
;))
lol
CUDA deal
CPR issued
BFU flood plateau at 7000 bopd
Finance re worked on better terms
Drilling campaign
Bid war, then Farm in by Major
Scale field
When Arthur fell off his chair he may have spotted the pen under his desk he uses to write RNS, hopefully news flow can really move this year with all this to come.
GLA
wheelo
once CUDA sorted then hopefully RNS will flow
This was a quick win RNS for Dec production - biggest ever, all on track etc
After Feb they may even update the website with presentation, fact sheets and proper links to ARC and Tennyson notes etc plus Federal deep deep dive
Its these smaller PR aspects that give a good impression of professionalism, attention to detail and awareness of potential shareholder requirements for data - from PI spending £1000 to II spending £1m - if lacking, its a constant drip of negativity until addressed - such low hanging fruit is left to ripen and fall from the tree unharvested.
Post Feb 4th there is an outstanding opportunity to totally re boot the comms, AM should ideally plan for that.
I suspect the 120bpd reported is this low due to well control reasons and not low pressures or something else. Basically once some more time is spent on the well it will flow much better than now. Just have to make sure it is safe first. We should all be excited. :).
The Dakota well is confidential still with the regulator so not reported in their figures.
Its average 120 bopd reported in RNS = 3720 monthly so one of highest wells overall in production - this represents total of 62134 in December
The largest ever production, greater than August peak of 61883, plus add January trend uplift assumptions to gain a current overall value of around 2000 bopd
I think so SteveV. I think we're nearing the end (famous last words) of the flippers. We've got to remember, we pretty much spent the full month of December under placing price, there's no doubt they were forward sold and they were dripped out for few weeks prior to announcement but I don't believe they were selling under 20p, and potentially that's why Art announced the find when he did - clear the decks before the official confirmation - we can only surmise. We have a high free float and it was retail who took us below placing price due to the announcement which is the norm for any company. We've shifted a huge amount of warrants and shares in the last year and we will have more in the future I'm sure but the shear size of discovery when confirmed will take us into uncharted territory and so it should.
Yep 34quint, must be short of shares , straight to NT