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Don't think I'm ever going to understand the concept that the RNs was fantastic, the Mms are playing us and keeping us down, it's shorters and warrant holders,we need to be patience but we can see 100% production up in a month, then bring in Art is playin the SP down because of 'comparable mcap valuations', but ignore the debt of copl which would be added to that mcap valuation too.
Like having a very bad girlfriend and my brain can't do that 7d chess.
Is it an asset for sale in a negotiation and we are trying to produce oil as quick as practicably possible?
To my understanding the valuation of cuda assets is perfectly reasonable. At the point they don't value them with the debt in mind, rather value them independent of any corrective company finance position comes in later in negotiations. In fact that's valuation are likely Ryder Scott of some independent valuer.
Been posted on here that BF could be reasonably expected to do 5000 bopd by Xmas . In which case that's the bulk
f the value, as that's not much ofF $ 40m a year revenue for 2022.
Alberta.gas asset probably valued at 2x the sale price agreed and Cole creek nominally at $5m
Prior to receivership the senior lender was looking for buyers with a deadline at the end of October. Clearly nothing attractive was on offer hence the receivership.
"The Company and the Senior Facility lender have agreed to engage a sales advisor by August 9, 2021
to pursue a sales process, including the opening of an online data room by August 27, 2021.
Additionally, the Company shall execute one or more non-binding letters of intent by September 30,
2021 and a binding offer to purchase by October 31, 2021."
So as part of the sale process has been gone through hopefully the receivers job will be helped by the previous exercise in terms of them knowing what was on the table.
With regard to news I think anything on Cuda may be weeks away as the receivers will have their process to go through.
Next news surely update on production and fed deep hopefully by mid December.
A lot of people on the board are saying that COPL would be the only likely suitor for CUDA'S Wi. But would not CNOOC also be thinking along those lines ?? To increase there WI would surely be to there advantage and its not as if they are short of funds.
Would probably reckon that trying to impress the receiver might be on a par to trying to being friendly with a python. They will simply try to squeeze out the best bid for the carcass of Cuda & will not be tooo swayed by any bidding for that carcass which is done with artificial sweeteners.
Tiburn’s summary of what our 57% WI is currently valued at, $17M, seems to be a fair evaluation. Cuda’s 27%WI at $9M is then a fair evaluation IF justification was needed to put a minimum price on Cuda but that is not what the receiver’s criteria will be but rather, what is the best deal on the table.
IF no other party is interested then a knock down price could be the only option open to the receiver.
And at which point a summary of the production (one well producing okay) & of its operator (prone to some minor misrepresentations) may just be adequate enough to keep most of the O&G buyers at bay.
Problem might come though from any lone wolf with the aforementioned $9M readily available (Atomic Senior?) and it could then be that tedoby’s calculation of a $15M evaluation becomes closer to the bidding mark.
Could though an O&G operator see significant value in the undisclosed results of Fed Deep’s exploratory well & of the technical capabilities of the operator such that IF a reasonable evaluation was then applied to Cuda (8000bopd x 27% x $70bbl) a bidder might easily evaluate it far higher than COPL’s current mc.
All yet very much to play for and so contemplating if yet more additional ‘squeezes’ to the BFU/FDU game board, still need to be applied. Guessing though we are in a good place; an unloved stock, with the time clock slowly ticking down, to yet even more covid restrictions surfacing, then affecting future sale prices. Fingers crossed that AM can seal the deal.
Another great post Tiburn ( at the risk of being accused of sexting again lol ),
i had to go out for a while and have only just returned.
At the risk of being very contreversial i was toying with a couple of thoughts,
if i was trying to impress the receivers and a chance for some very good but cost effective PR i would offer the 2 following items to sweeten the deal as far as the receivers were concerned.
Outwith the deal for WI,
I would offer to pay all the unsecured creditors - swp after the deal has been agreed,
cost US$ 1.8 million,
More contreversially i would offer to give the cuda shareholders the value of their shares at suspension ( 0.020/share cad),
At a cost of US$712,005 .
It would barely make a dent in the 18,559,261 shares AM has in reserve.
I am sure people will think i have gone soft in the head,
but imagine the possible great PR that might be created from such ethical and unusual generosity.
It would make the receivers look good,
would make COPL look good ( in conjunction with our green field policy pronounced at the same time ) might attract a whole raft of investors.
The old Cuda investors who might consider taking a punt after receiving a get out of jail card.
Ethical investors who might think that not all oilers are the devils work.
Its might even get the thumbs up from our own ii's and hnw investors who could also use it to there own advantage.
I think could possibly even attract the herd, and many others if this news was handled well, even the market maybe impressed by such magnamous action .
Well ther we are i have put myself up there to be shot at.
AM direct experience of CUDA in receivership position combined with many months to plan his campaign to take the WI for the lowest possible price.
It explains the hot and cold comms, release some good news to appease the HNW holders, but temper with some gratuitous poor news like the issues with Dakaota drill.
Is it coincidence we are at this lowest SP sicne relist at the exact time when CUDA is being valued, and how best to value than refer to the other WI market capitalisation .
CNOOC unlisted in US market now so that leaves COPL with its £36m MC or US $48m.
Take $10m off for topside kit as per Feb presentation statement = $36m
Assume $6m for Nigeria nominal value as a very low case = $30m
Minus COPL cash on account around $13m now = $17m
So $17m = 57% WI valuation
27% pro rata is around $9m maximum benchmarked value with no further discounting
The target may well have been to get CUDA for cash immidiately to hand whilst still retaining the $2.5m balance on account AM has to maintain as agreed with the lender - as $20m accordian not able to be released until capital repayments start or a higher bopd to pay it back required.
$9m CUDA value +$2.5m = $11.5m required - with $13m on account, allows for some contingency.
also take off the $2.8m owed to SWP and its an even better deal.
So 57% WI worth
Afternoon illusion, I keep going back to the fact this low SP is our friend, even if we don’t think of it for now!
How is this achieved?
-by dripping shares into the market.
Where are the shares coming from?
-from warrants held by the chosen few.
Rounded sells and rounded buys, warrants sold, institutions buying.
Just one line of thought….
No problem Doug ,
I hope your figure of 1/8 of the value comes to pass for us.
Even at twice or three times that rate it would be a massive coup/cuda for us .
Lol, thanks Illusion.
Oh by the way folks that is total assets ,
it might be arguable that the alberta asset might reduce it by another US$ 3 million that would give
circa US$ 39 milllion give or take.
The note said it was Canadian dollars,
i just converted to US dollars.
‘….so theyare saying assets off US$ 44,353,655
- swp owed US$ 2,190,744
leaves a balance of US$ 42,163,009…..’
Receivers have clearly stated total assets of $ 56,732,753
So bamboozled as to how the $42M figure was derived at?
Kind of intrigued though to the quoted ‘ $42M assets’
As is very similar figure to a previous occurrence:
As it was another receiver, who was then brought in,
For a North Sea oil driller with an mc of $4.2B
And after much bidding receiver then sold at $500M.
1/8th the original value.
Wondering where AM is setting his Cuda benchmark figure ?
Yesterday’s big sell offs will hopefully work in our favour over the next few weeks.
Good Morning Shaa,
well spotted my friend,
so theyare saying assets off US$ 44,353,655
- swp owed US$ 2,190,744
leaves a balance of US$ 42,163,009.
I would say good luck with that ,
the fallen Mcap of COPL and the temporary presumbably fluctuating oil price have given AM the best ammunition
possible to get the best deal possible.
Are the fetes with us once more,
Arty could secure a second cracking deal due to circumstances falling our way.
The current uncertainties in the markets and and initial panic over the new covid strain could make any other interested parties nervous and may pave the way to a great chance for us.
And surprisingly our troubled sp did not fair to badly yesterday against many other shares so there must be some consolation in that lol.
One thing about Art we do know is that he thinks BIG.
He'll be working on Cuda,Nigeria and the new discoveries almost simultaneously. He may over reach
himself. But then again he may pull the whole thing off.
For us though trying to penetrate Art's mind is like trying to unravel a highly complex game if Cluedo
I think a lot were thinking that getting it for for $30M may net be worth it Tiburn but I think CUDA is a hidden gem in the long run.
Writings been on the wall for a longtime, hopefully COPL can wrap up CUDA in a couple of months.
As I said earlier, a rich period of news in next 10 weeks.
To mention just what we know!
Note: the foregoing are the assets and book value as stated in the financial statements of the Debtor as
at June 30, 2021. The Receiver has not audited, reviewed, or otherwise attempted to verify the accuracy
of the foregoing. The Receiver provides no comment on the realizable value of the assets.
Great spot am I reading that right? $56m assets? So their working interest valued at $50m?? Ha!
Outrageous they were allowed to trade.