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It looks really bleak for CEY. Either a great opportunity to buy or wonderful opportunity to short?
Thanks Mr T for this opportunity to father and collect all questions people have of the board .
I only have 3 questions which I sent in to the Board last week .
Goldgnome helpfully posted an email link which I will use to send the questions via email tomorrow .
My 3 questions were , which are all related to their ten year plan. (.they will certainly have one if they comply with standard practices of board requirements )
1. Future ambitions for growth.
As all as shareholders know is that they reset (reduced) production levels to between 400-450,000 ounces per year for the next 3 years. ..
What are their ambitions for years 4-10 of the plan regarding annual production levels ..are they planning to grow, remain the same or decline ..
Whenever I was a Finance Director prior to retirement, this was always my first question from day 1. I was always prepared for a fight with the operations director who wanted to keep his or her targets as low as possible to protect their survival .. the worst thing they could do was to make bold claims about what they could achieve ..my job was to press then on it and enlist the support of the CEO to do it.
Remember , my first comment on this board was that Centamin wasn't a growth company ..this will be their opportunity to prove me wrong ...
My approach would be to press for a doubling of current production levels from year 6..how they were going to achieve that would be up to them , but in my experience , once people are set a target , their focus becomes on achieving it. The other members of the board would join in the pressure that me and the CEO would exert. I haven't seen one statement identifying their what their future ambitions are .
2. The second question which would be thrown at their FD is, based on the productions levels contained within the 10 year plan ....
( a ). What is the targeted AISC ...and resulting EPS....this is the ultimate determining factor in whether or not the company is seeking growth. When all costs are added in to the equation , exploration costs , admin, PR, risk and regulatory etc etc ..what is the resulting EPS. yes I know that mining is a cyclical business which is why I would use the ' CAPE ' formula which stands for cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio , but since they obviously can't predict the share price then just stick with earnings. This ratio is calculated on a rolling basis over a 5-7 year period ...obviously what you want to see is this number rising using a steady state 'real value' of gold prices averaged out of the year of the plan ...
It should also include 2 other scenarios of maybe 25% and 50% higher and lower than the current price .
3. The final question is dividend policy ..at the moment the policy is to pay out 30% of operating cash flows in dividends ..how will this policy change with regards to their production targets .
One other question that I would like answered but which I didn't ask , is what is their future inte
Good find . It makes you wonder doesn't it ...certainly a question to put before the board I think , if only to receive confirmation that there is no link regarding the passing up of a serious opportunity.
I am about to post the 3 questions that I put to the board ..I will send them by email tomorrow rather than by text to the mobile number listed on their website.
Person Of Interest #1
WAYNE KOSHMAN He is currently the founder and President of Red Sea Resources - an Egyptian based gold exploration company created in 2020. Red Sea Resources just won 5 exploration blocks in Egypt’s Eastern Desert (two of which are just below and just above Sukari.)
In addition to Wayne's Egypt 'business' he is a director with Altair Resources. Altair has just:
- signed a binding agreement for a 90% ownership and 10% Burkina Faso Government ownership for an open pit, 3 deposit, gold exploration project containing 1,388,120 oz of gold (Historic Estimate) at an average grade of 0.95 g/t (COG @ 0.5 g/t).
- The 3 deposits are located in the south west of the country and 35km from Centamin’s Konkera project of 3.1M oz.
- The project is located in the safest area of Burkina Faso, a mining friendly jurisdiction.
- Altair has commissioned a PEA report and completion is expected in December 2021.
- Conventional open pit mining expected in 2024.
- 387,596 m of drilling & 294,504 core samples completed from 3 deposits.
My Thoughts:
35km from Centamin's Konkera deposit seems inordinately close. Do these deposits fall into one or more of the concessions Centamin may have *relinquished* 2 years back (as I was told by IR)
If so it would have been under Andrew Pardey's watch... I will do more digging and report.
https://www.altairresources.com/the-burkina-faso-opportunity/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/wayne-koshman-77285a7b/?originalSubdomain=ca
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1440373374555803654
.@CentaminPlc this is what #CEY shareholders want to see - our $ used to develop & provide jobs in #BurkinaFaso - investment in PEOPLE passes the long-term shareholder 'rate-of-return hurdle test'
@gouvernementBF
@Buchanan_PR
@Schroders
@vaneck_eu
@HLInvest
@Vanguard_Group
The video link https://youtu.be/4NoeBQWxFhk
Hi Cowichan,
Both you and Andrew raise very pertinent points , lets hope Martin Horgan follows through with the promised actions to address them to the satisfaction of everyone concerned without delay!
https://twitter.com/CentaminPlc/status/1440341116927107078
As we continue to develop our #Sustainability Performance Framework we have updated our #ESG policies in line with industry good practice and launched a new dashboard capturing our annual ESG performance data
Download our ESG dashboard: http://loom.ly/zvyyNRE
#RGMPs #GRI #SASB
---------------------------->>>
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1440352339492171782
Long term shareholders are proud of Centamin's #ESG commitment
However, #CEY has been stuck with ONE #gold mine to manage - unlike many miners who've grown, live ESG & provide new jobs/value thru expansion
#CEY TALKS about growth & performance but in reality has yet to prove it
------------------------>>>>
My Thoughts:
'Continuing to develop a sustainability performance framework' sounds important.
I wish management would give equal effort in 'continuing to develop a gold production framework' AND articulate that message to the market and investors.
As Goldgnome recently pointed out, part of the reason - or perhaps the main reason - our share performance is so dismal relates to the fact Centamin doesn't have a strategy to promote what catches new investors attention first - and that is growth.
Mining will continue to be looked at by many as a dirty sector - some will not invest no matter what ESG changes are implemented. We dig up the land and leave what appears to be scars. Fine. But for those who do invest - like us - we still need management to articulate a concrete, achievable path to grow production.
A simple, obvious omission that needs fixing fast.
Good stuff Tibbs - we all need a laugh! And funny business aside - it's entirely true. ;-)
2m trades after-market tend to capture the attention.
Hedge Funds & Leverage Investments Funds
Sub Prime & Structured Investment Packages
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-oIMJMGd1Q
Investment Banker explains the reason for market turmoil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z70BKwfSUA
Why are Senior City Banker's paid so much?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYw_hrGzaxQ
Hope we are out of the awful rut . . . haven't enjoyed it one bit.
Sorry posted too soon, typo's below, should read -
"but in the absence of anyone else starting a thread will at least serve the purpose for the time being"
Hi Mr Gnome,
I hope that you and everyone else get the answers to their questions, you will see that I have posted a thread on this forum now, depending on responses it may have to be relocated or changed in the future, but in yje adcence of antyone else sarting a thread will at least serve the purpose for the time being
Questions and answer thread for Centamin Retail Investors.
Reply below -
Quite so Cowichan,
Unfortunately email's are all too often ignored by those who have the ultimate power to make the changes or take the action action to bring about change!
Governments the world over want to limit peoples s awareness of the true facts which is why the was such an outcry when William Haige when Tory minister decided to take the BBC world Service off the FM broadcasting band during daytime hours and make it only available on Digital or via the internet
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-12283356
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmfaff/849/849.pdf
And yes your politicians are a bunch of hypocritical selfish political gravy train passengers just like ours in the UK and so many the world over "Don't do as we do just do as we say!"
Is it ever closed?
I seem to recall that Chinas property market first raised concern in 1999. Empty buildings in the middle of nowhere. But what will the Chinese do? I wonder how much money Evergrande owes to western banks? And when it comes to property Western banks cant ignore property look at the property crashes we've had? And Chinese rates are higher than American & other Western countries. A lot of Russians took out dollar mortgages because of the lower rates. But in 2014 with the Crimea thing the rouble halved in value..i.e. the value houses securing those dollar mortgages halved in dollar terms. Then add in the property price collapse of Russian property. Add in the doubling of those dollar mortgage payments for Russian home owners and ouch you get defaults. So what happened to that? Maybe there werent that many dollar mortgages in Russia after all. And then again maybe they were dumped on the worlds financial markets like the US sub prime mortgages? or maybe they are still hidden in the banking system ? Ho hum!
Bitcoin opened 7% down this morning.
Presently $42K.
European stocks traded above the flatline premarket on Tuesday following yesterday's selloff. Tensions between France, the European Union and the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia were high following the cancellation of the submarine agreement between Canberra and Paris.
The FTSE 100 gained 0.64% at 7:43 am CET. The DAX increased 0.37% at the same time, while the CAC 40 rose 0.25%
The euro and the pound were up 0.07% and 0.11% against the dollar at 7:44 am CET, changing hands for $1.17340 and $1.36702 respectively.
Breaking the News / MD
Why not, continues the theme of rivalry between the US and China...knows no bounds.
Chinese property giant Evergrande is being picked over by outside advisers who are trying to untangle more than $400 billion of debt (How could it grow to this level?)
One of the nation's largest real estate developers, the company claims to own more than "1,300 projects in more than 280 cities in China and is a forerunner in delivering all houses with fine decoration".
And until this year, Chinese property was booming.
Demand for real estate in mega-cities Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou drove prices to among the most expensive in the world.
Evergrande took out loan after loan to meet demand. Checks and balances please?
But then came falling property prices in smaller cities and a series of government measures aimed at cracking down on excessive borrowing in the real estate sector.
Economists say the potential collapse of the company could "be the biggest test that China's financial system has faced in years."
In its wake, thousands of Evergrande's investors, suppliers and employees of the sinking company are hoping the government steps in to help them get their money back. The Govt seems to step in a lot these days, with other peoples money, creating debt of a different kind (but debt is OK as long as it is in your own currency/country, so they have learnt well from the USA)
So far, Beijing continues to hold a firm line against such a decision.
Beijing draws three red lines? Why red?
Evergrande's woes began when Beijing slapped strict rules on the Chinese real estate industry last August.
Known as the 'Three Red Lines' limit, the rules were aimed at reining in debt and making real estate more affordable for the average Chinese family...sound familiar, replay US Cinton's regime...subprime part 2?
Revision:
Under Clinton’s Housing and Urban Development (HUD) secretary, Andrew Cuomo, Community Reinvestment Act regulators gave banks higher ratings for home loans made in “credit-deprived” areas. Banks were effectively rewarded for throwing out sound underwriting standards and writing loans to those who were at high risk of defaulting. If banks didn’t comply with these rules, regulators reined in their ability to expand lending and deposits.
These new HUD rules lowered down payments from the traditional 20 percent to 3 percent by 1995 and zero down-payments by 2000. What’s more, in the Clinton push to issue home loans to lower income borrowers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made a common practice to virtually end credit documentation, low credit scores were disregarded, and income and job history was also thrown aside. The phrase “subprime” became commonplace.
and on the show goes, why dont we learn? why dont they learn? this time it will be different
I think I will join Mr Bond, and take a morning nap, before trading starts in ernest.
best
the Gnome
Goodnight MrBond, sleep well.
Cowichan
CEY certainly do not communicate their brownfields exploration strategy very well, let alone results. Being a long term member of the Cynics and Skeptics fraternity, I hope this does not mean they do not have such a strategy. Be nice if they could explain it clearly to the owners of the company (us!), so we could better understand one important organic growth path of the company. Not explaining this clearly does mean there will be little premium attached to CEY shares, in my view.
Seismic was flavour of the month (actually a few years) in Oz, yielding some fantastic new insights into geology and new ore positions..and new discoveries. It looks like CEY participated in this (seismic surveying), but what happened? Results? Follow through? The Pardey gush and bluff moved on...
I have asked some questions of the CEO in this area, and they have been acknowledged and are about to be answered, I am all ears!
The CEO would be wise to answer, carefully and to act effectively and quickly in this area.
best
The Gnome
Manipulation.
Good night it is late here.
Interesting sell off at the end of the day, which does not seem to be correlated to POG moves? (check this as I am in different time zone)
Reminds me of some similar moves seen in the ASX sometime ago, always at the end of the day..almost last trades. It turned out the ASX were onto such REPEATED shenanikans, and caught the offenders who were trying to prove a point...in this case it was a sell up, such that the graph of end of sales SP was always up (despite the downs during the day). The offenders enjoyed accomodation at the cost of the state for year or so, and life went on!
I do however get the firm view that there are some distortions in the market. Gold miners down, anything to do with lithium up up, nickel up, uranium up, iron ore up up and now down down, gas, and so on.
Interesting to look at the Uranium market, and the change in market structure, initiated by the Sprott Trust. The uranium market is an odd one, influenced by the utilities buying strategies and programs, which has (nearly) always run at the pace the utilities want. But its a relatively small market, and as such, games can be played, and of course they are all legal.
Sprott chief executive said the physical uranium trust that Sprott launched in August would help rebalance the 180m-lb-a-year uranium market — driving prices to a level that spurred greater production of the radioactive material. Great cause? Or is it? Who benefits and is the benefit fair and reasonable?
Pity someone else doesn't try and bring a new structure to the gold market, so that it benefits the (more) deserved, and the benefits are fair and reasonable to a larger % of the market particpants. The present opaque machinations that pass for a market, is neither fair nor reasonable, one could argue. Its a pity the POG is such a ready reckoner of the continual debasement of the US dollar ( a decline of more than ninety-eight percent in its purchasing power over the last 100 years, no less?). History would tell one, that one has to be careful with causing too much debasement too quickly, and social ruptures and revolutions can start. Best to shave a little gold off the coin that does the rounds...and so it is with inflation, which is what some look at for evidence of a little shave...but as one does know there is inflation! and inflation? and then there are the price increases that effect your wallet.
Is it not surprising that the Fed is planning to tolerate higher inflation than its historically preferred level of 2%. All things equal, the more inflation there is, the faster that public debt to GDP reduces, otherwise what do they do?
More money printed, more productivity? in times of burgeoning bureacracy? increasing mountains of red tape? incr govt?
Anyone else got clues as to the price drop at end of day?
best
the Gnome
Cowichan ...can you start a thread headed up Questions for Centamin , so we can all see what the questions we all have are .
I would if I could but for some reason it won't allow me .
I will be asking them 3 questions tomorrow via the email link but it would be good if I can share them with all others on the board and for us all to see each others .
Thanks .