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It's still too early to tell either way, but as far as the current narrative of it probably being much milder than delta, it's probably sensible to take that hopeful thinking with a pinch of salt. The SA doctor who purportedly reported it, who cited treating a 30 something patient with "mild" symptoms as testimony to it being less severe, on the same day her government were - understandably - distraught and frantic about the wave of travel restrictions just placed on them, just seemed a little too contrived, a little too coerced, like she'd been leant on by the powers above to downplay it to limit the damage to the economy in peak tourism season. If it had been a long list of over 60s with mild symptoms and not a solitary 30 something, it might have served as more useful, albeit, still anecdotal evidence.
Ultimately it's going to take another two weeks before we begin to know the impact on how morbidity, as deaths seem to trail case numbers by about 25 days.
https://twitter.com/_capitallimited/status/1466352650257981448?s=21
The first thing coming down the pipe is that it is far more transmissible than the delta variant. Hospitalisations in South Africa are starting to move up. Omicron is more problematic in children compared to previous Covid-19 variants.
Hi Mr Gnome,
Really excellent summing up of government policy in Oz.
Mind you our UK government is the most inept,oppressive and corrupt that I can ever recall.
This stinker " Mogg" is the MP in charge of the Tories who banned the use of the term "Unfit for purpose" in Tory party communications
Jacob Rees-Mogg has become the latest MP to face a standards probe after claims he failed to declare outside earnings.
On Wednesday, the Commons leader and Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross were added to the list of MPs that are under investigation by Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards Kathryn Stone.
The decision to investigate Rees-Mogg comes after Labour demanded an investigation into a £6 million loan that the party said he did not declare properly.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jacob-rees-mogg-standards-probe_uk_61a7bc83e4b07fe20121c22d
Draconian measure to be inflicted on the UK
UKHome Secretary Priti Patel pushes ahead with controversial new laws that could jail protesters for six months.https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/priti-patel-pushes-ahead-today-25582718
New offences would force prison terms on activists who lock, chain or glue themselves to railings, gates or other objects.
The bill was already a stunningly draconian piece of legislation. One of its chief provisions was to allow police to impose severe restrictions on protests on the basis of noise. If they were loud enough to cause “serious unease, alarm or distress” to a single passer-by – a description which covers any demonstration at all – the police power was triggered.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/policing-bill-protest-amendments-stop-search-b1964236.html
https://www.ier.org.uk/news/whats-wrong-with-the-police-crime-sentencing-and-courts-bill/
https://www.libertyhumanrights.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Libertys-briefing-on-the-PCSC-Bill-for-second-reading-in-the-House-of-Lords.pdf
The Brexiteer's claimed we would get back our freedom because our government could make its own laws, well our present government is certainly taking the latter opportunity to suppress any opinion they don't like and now there is no right of appeal to the EU court of human rights for justice!
Interest payments on $1.3 trillion in state and federal government debt will grow to $34 billion a year by 2024-25, as Australia’s strong economic bounce back reduces debt but pushes interest rates higher.
Interest payments will increase to 1.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the next three years, according to the latest national fiscal outlook from the independent Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO).
“This is $3.2 billion higher across the period 2020-21 to 2023-24 than forecast at the previous outlook, despite the improvement in the debt position,” the PBO said.
And in the mean time, we will print as much money as you like....
And you can do what you like with your money.
And we will do what we like with yours ...
the gnome
Equities on the major stock markets in Europe traded with losses in the premarket on Thursday as the investors monitored the developments related to the ongoing wave of COVID-19 infections. While Germany's incoming Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in favor of introducing mandatory vaccinations, the incumbent head of the government, Angela Merkel, expressed a different opinion.
On the data front, the traders anticipated reports on the producer prices in the Eurozone, as well as the latest update on the unemployment in the bloc.
The DAX plunged 1.17% at 7:09 am CET, while the CAC 40 tumbled 1.24% at the same time. Meanwhile, in London, the FTSE 100 dropped 1.08%.
The euro and the pound advanced by 0.1% and 0.18% compared to the dollar, selling for 1.13226 and 1.32882 at 7:11 am CET, respectively.
Breaking the News / BU
Questions
1. What is the life of mine at Sukari?
2. What are ALL the assumptions you have made to derive 1?
3. What is the exploration potential, and respective probabilities of success
4. What are ALL the assumptions you have made to derive 3?
5. Outside of Sukari, what are your plans in terms of $spent, ROI and time lines for the other assets? How do you plan to finance these?
6. What are the other opportunties of significance AND HIGH PROBABILITY THAT YOU SEE?
BEST
THE GNOME
its a great bet... I am in on this
...
Hi 600LT
I hope you are right about the December update & I indeed share your optimism that the news will be good.
However I do find it a bit rich giving Horgan & the current management team the credit for the increased resource/reserves which we hope will be disclosed.
I have held an investment in Centamin for over 20 years & was introduced to the company through Josef El-Raghy who in those days worked as a stock-broker here in Perth and had a good friend of mine as a client (I am most pleased to have got that introduction as it has proved to be most profitable).
I can assure you that the resources contained in the Sukari deposit have been known about for a very long time, long before Horgan joined the company so crediting him with their discovery is a bit much. Just because the drilling required to make a JORC compliant resource announcement (we hope) has been completed on his watch does not mean he found them.
I maintain my view that the progress Horgan has made in remedying the operational problems at Sukari so far has been pedestrian and may be due to his background/experience being more focussed on the finance side rather than the operational side of gold mining. I am not saying we need a new CEO but I firmly believe that he needs much stronger support at the executive level in the engineering & geological areas - someone who will pull apart the current mine plan, revise it appropriately and implement the revisions.
It is all well and good to have resources & reserves but if we don't have someone who really knows how to get it out of the ground in the most efficient manner we will found ourselves somewhat hamstrung.
Just my opinion & I am certainly looking forward to 8 December.
I can remember hearing that irrational exuberance remark being repeated every time there was a stock market high.
Regarding money supply and inflation ..I think the velocity of circulation has a hand in it too.
Finally though , in the UK today a panorama report has said that the average household will spend £1,700 more in 2022 than in 2021 on tax hikes , fuel and electricity , council taxes , food and services ..you can see it happening already.
I think the inflation cycle has already began ..
More predictions by experts.
Dec. 4, 1996, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wondered whether stock prices were exhibiting “irrational exuberance,” the S&P 500 was priced at 745. It closed the following year at 875 and never finished any subsequent year below 950.
The bond market’s critics haven’t been right since Ronald Reagan held office; effectively, Treasury yields have done nothing but decline. Along the way, pessimists have periodically questioned the bond market’s sanity, including Alan Greenspan (an amazing run, for one of the much vaunted smartest persons in the room and yett not being able to predict much at all, despite being able to supposedly influence the world of money??), ... in April 2017 repeated his “irrational exuberance” charge, this time about bonds. Wrong again.
Milton Friedman’s statement--“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon that … can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output”--was once regarded as a truism, economists now wonder why money creation in developed countries has outstripped output without sparking inflation.
Nevertheless, although the traditional measures of money supply have lost much of their predictive powers, ...Friedman’s precept remains valid as a general principle. Eventually, more money must lead to higher prices. The relevant question is not if money creation will increase prices, but when. Timing is missing to vague in so many predictions?
In the 10 years from November 2001 through October 2011, the M2 money supply increased by 78%. Over the next decade, M2 grew by 120%.
In exchange for receiving 1.5 more percentage points of annual yield than they would obtain from cash, along with the possibility of strong performance should another recession arrive, Treasury investors court the ever-increasing risk that the skeptics will finally be right, leading to double-digit capital losses. That doesn’t seem like a sound bet to me.
Better instead to hold short notes and/or cash and/or gold !
the gnome, pondering from afar
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by former FED insider, bestselling author and the CEO of Quill Intelligence, Danielle DiMartino Booth, to thoroughly examine the source of the current nervousness in the market.
Distinguished by a career on both Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, Danielle offers her expert stance on the Fed’s fumbled attempts to fix the economy since 2008, and the potential transition into a new, gold-based monetary system.
00:00 Start
03:00 Fed’s past 13 years summarised
06:50 What’s so disturbing about Bitcoin?
11:25 The Fed’ relationship with BIS and ECB
17:30 Are we about to witness the change of leadership at the Fed?
19:30 Is Central Bank digital currency coming?
22:45 What you’re not allowed to talk about at the Fed and the Treasury?
26:30 Should the Fed and the Treasury take a divorce?
30:00 What’s interesting from a gold perspective?
34:25 What is Danielle’s stance on silver, and does she hold it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMrukftGtPolist=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1
The opinions expressed in this video of Andrew Maguire and any guest, do not purport to reflect the official policy or position of Kinesis.
Hi 600LT,
Nails on the head, nails on the head!
I agree Razor...that was a very well thought out contribution , with necessary caveats included
As Steve J says , most of the contributions surrounding the LOM review have been positive; yours takes it to a different level .
Here's hoping you are right ..
Hi Rebess,
Quite agree, the buggers that have been running the manipulation scam for so long are bound to already have a contingency plan , cant see them giving up such a nice little earner just because of some new regulations coming into force!
Well, there appears to be no end to the manipulation. - The theory that positions will have to be squared and a new direction implemented to accommodate B3 is beginning to look a little suspect. - Maybe it's what Alistair Macleod is now suggesting. - Namely, that the stop-loss harvesting of the muppets is so easy and so lucrative, that any financial penalties incurred under B3 through through maintaining the old status-quo is well worth it. - We'll soon know. - I'll be surprised if there isn't a plan B. - It's hard to accept that a trade that has been so easy and so profitable and for so long, we're talking about decades of control, will so easily be relinquished. Added to this, the powerful financial-families, including Royalty, who are behind the enterprise and it's easy to conclude that there must be a contingency-plan in place. - IMO
*promoted/ prompted
Wow 600LT, you’re good, very good. The truth is I have a massive investment in Centamin and the management are although impressive through their efforts at putting Sukari back on track are poor at keeping their private investors informed. The company shouldn’t have to be promoted, either through here or Twitter for positive feedback.
I’m grateful to whoever sent you along with your very polished thoughts, be it god or Centamin but as I say we shouldn’t be so miss informed m.
600LT, the envy of any petrol head, I hope you have it on the road and not sorned.
Thank you for your post.
Quietly adding. If it went down to 93p, I would be doing a whole hog and going super overweight on Centamin.
I don't know about you guys, but having carefully watched and then re watched all video presentations from Centamin during the tenure of Martin Horgan and his refreshed team, I conclude that these guys are having an absolute ball carefully transforming the outlook for Centamin.
The cost saving program is clearly being over delivered on and more and more realistic lasting savings continue to be identified. The newly granted licences within the Nubian Shield in Egypt offer very real potential multi year excitement,as the prospect of modern mining exploration techniques are applied to millennia old artisanal mines in close proximity to Sukari. The Ivory Coast prospects are nearing the stage for potential positive real world feasibility confirmations.
But the real short term kicker I think is about to be revealed, is that on the 8th December we will be advised that very significant additional reserves at Sukari, above and beyond even their original expectations, have been found and confirmed and that they will be able to reveal a much longer and richer life for our core asset at Sukari than was previously identified.
This is of course not investment advice and is my own opinion. But I urge any of you who are sufficiently interested to spend a few hours to closely listen to those presentations and read the body language of the management team and see if you draw the same conclusions as me.
https://www.investing.com/news/morgan-stanley-stick-to-their-hold-rating-for-centamin-plc-2695509
Fair comment Steve, I stand corrected, slightly lightly less waffle and a bit more time to reconsider options.
Most on this board have already stated this on the positive side.
Sotolo- would be interested to know your view which is usually contrary.
Any thoughts on what the update will say ?