Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

I know we hoped for Centamin to rise before London close and we were just about up, but I see the Gold future order book growing and so will the price of Gold over the next few weeks as the biggest fund Managers come out of Bonds into stocks where they will hedge against future losses with Gold. The don't always have to own physical gold but I know of some that buy into the miners instead -So lets see what happens but it could be a fruitful couple of weeks, if not days.

Prof

Dont know why you just pick on GBP, try any of the fiats..try Australia !!!

We will soon be burning our fiat currency to keep warm during winter, as all of our energy which we sold to other countries [as part of our brilliant energy policy] wil be too expensive to buy back! And the sun doesnt shine much during winter. I hope the lunatics are happy now, they do seem to have a good grip on the assylum

best

teh Gnome

I see the IMF has $1trillion at the ready and the chief of the IMF made several points of great interest to gold recently (my bet is that this will not be enough) [You do have to spare a thought for the World Bank and the IMF - what sort of fundamentally unstable and flawed financial system have you delivered to the world when we pay you trillions to "construct"?]

From the IMF chief
>The coronavirus pandemic has created an economic crisis “like no other,” the top International Monetary Fund official said.
>“Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill,” said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF.
>“It is way worse than the global financial crisis” of 2008-09, Georgieva said during a World Health Organization news conference.
Good grief, if the panic from the virus is not enough, lets double down [no wonder the US has decalred gun shops an essential business?!]

Be well worth reviewing the behaviour of gold during and after the GFC for a clue to behaviour in the ensuing months and years. Didnt fair too bad? Good grounds to think if the problems are worse, then the perfomance of gold will be better? Dont worry about the theory, whats the big end of town doing with their feet ...?

"At the World Gold Council (2018), we believe there are five reasons why central banks are showing an increased interest in gold:

FX reserves are growing.
Gold is re-emerging as a strategically important asset and countries are seeking political independence from the US via dedollarisation.
The US dollar is strong now, but asset valuations, current levels and budget deficits are undermining its attraction.
Higher global risks and the diminished/deteriorating quality of other reserve assets, such as sterling and the euro, are fuelling demand for diversification.
Changes in global trade patterns and the expected future state of the international monetary system, which will see the US dollar become less dominant as China’s financial markets develop and open up."

and if its good enough for the central banks, its good enough for me.
https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/central-banks-continue-remarkable-gold-buying-spree/

Very hard to see property prices holding up, and in fact they are on the decline, rents are harder to collect (and beware of the rights of the renter you landlords, please read the LANDLORDS GUIDE TO THE PANDEMIC), EQUITY MARKETS LOOK VERY TROUBLED, with the Dow showing retreat to 2016 levels, causing a lot of probems in retirement funds and programs. The Banks shutting down dividends (even paying each other !!!), already troubled by start-ups, employee lay-offs, not to mention a lot of ban staff (now overworked) find themselves in the position of having to be social workers (no training for tis!) to couples who cannot cope...and on it goes.

and on gold goes

havagoodweekend all !!!
the gold gnome

Dasut
Your remarks about West Africa are very true. I have worked there for near 20 years off and on, and it is a different world. Business is done according to a different set of written rules, and different set of social rules. Successful experience and extensive personal contacts in industry, government and their society are key (not so disimilar to anywhere else?) There are many interestin things to find out, ...because you are successful in Ghana does not mean you will be successful in French West Africa. I once saw a major mishap, when a successful Ghanain contractor was bought in to operate in Burkina Faso. An utter disaster, which resulted in the company nearly losing its tenments. From the Burkina perspective, they saw their jobs evaporate, and when you have something like 80-90% unemployment or underemployment that is not a good look and unacceptable. Also the Ghanains bought in their own food and "chefs" as they couldnt stand the Burkina food...bad move, salt into the wound. So lots to learn, and best to have someone who has learnt.
I am impressed at their handling of the operation in Egpt, and the way it has continued on, dominated by locals, and relatively unscathed by the virus. There is going to be a rejig of the global logistics, procurement and training of locals (something that has been happening to various degrees in various companies) in the minig industry...more thorough I suspect that before...and for the better!
https://www.mining-technology.com/features/how-covid-19-is-hurting-mining/

A lot of trades have been rolled for a future payment but they are insisting they can meet demand. However they have 359803 contracts outstanding to settle for June futures with an order of 36 Million ounces so how can that be met? The price of Gold is USD25 an ounce higher in NY rather than London shows concerns - all mentioned in Mining news. That is one hell of an order book. I cannot see Gold prices falling for some time yet. One person familiar with the matter told me the big fund managers are Hedging their stocks for safety against Gold in the coming Days/Weeks for some security to their Pensions books. The new few weeks could prove very fruitful to us. IMHO.

Can I suggest that everyone goes to BullionVault's web page and runs the 20 year gold price in GBP.

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

Mr Bond I don't think there will be any reason why Ausdrill/AMS won't announce a new contract but would hope that by that time it will be common knowledge. Also might not be Ausdrill/ AMS as there are several very competent contractors operating in West Africa but having already worked with Martin Horgan at Mako it should give them an edge.

Thanks Dasut.
I too have been retired many years ,but lost track of modern programs.
Think we all in need of some uplift at this time.
This is something to look forward too.
Will have to check , in the near future AMS website,as they used to publish new contracts and companies.
That may have change now for security reasons.
Keep well.,
Regards.

Mr Bond I would hope that there will already be many individual studies that are available and there are very effective mining software programmes that can quickly bring such studies and data to formulate a mine plan that can be regularly updated as more data is made available.
I have been retired for 12 years when studies were generally put together by consultants and many were going through lengthy analysis and compiling lengthy worded reports that took for ever. There was at that time software packages that were as far as I am concerned amazing and I didn't have to get my calculator out to work the numbers, but still limited.
Since retiring I have done the odd bit of work and been absolutely blown away by what has and still is being developed and how detailed and quickly reports can be generated.
Definitely agree however that it isn't going to be something that will happen immediately but I think we are getting very close to a positive statement.

African Mining Services would certainly fast track the project ,as you say the bankable feasibility study if ok.
That could take some time though. The study, that is.

Tibbs like I say time will tell and hope if Sukari is on track and going well then he leaves the guys on the ground to drive it forward. He can then lead a team to focus on West Africa and if he does what he did in Senegal and brings on board the likes of Ausdrill/AMS who are both experienced and financially strong, then providing the resource(s) is proven and feasibility studies are bankable then I see no reason why project(s) couldn't be similarly fast tracked. Especially if the project(s) are of a similar size to Mako,Senegal because this is a far smaller mine than Sukari and will be easily managed with a reliable contractor with the size of mining machines that they specialise in and will fit into existing contractor fleets providing compatibility and consistency.

Final bell 1630.
SP 124.05.
LSE froze at 16.29..
So not too bad for Friday.
Have a good weekend all.
007 Ha Ha.

Needs to get moving its arse now . Gold to hot 1625 before close of lse

Not surprised we are on the up now - Bloomberg index now also showing gains for Gold Spot and Comex futures in USD, I have us up even more in GBP. which is not to be unexpected with the low level of Uk service sector figures being released today. Our earnings will increase proportionately with lower sterling than high and so we will get a second bonus from holding this share. i.e. Increased earnings over the currencies and the additional safe haven status.

Maybe instead of buying hard physical Gold they should start coming in here and the other precious metal miners (which was what they used to be in). I suppose in the end they may have no choice to support their pensions as I have said. Apparently in Hargreaves Lansdown's daily report European Insurers have now been told to protect their dividends and so our European brothers are becoming very concerned about their own Insurers ability to pay their dues.

Hi Marmot,
Thank you the info and thank you to 007, chdunn, Col & Bob for your explanations and opinions on the NFP & market situation.

NFP 701,000 AND PMI 34.5. Not unanticipated of course but figure only to mid March. USA indices propped by Trumps statement re Saudi production cut (still to see) oil majors obvious rebounding somewhat. Futures still down about 5 bais points.Everything a bit lack lustre at present although CEY in positive territory at 124.3 bid

Isolated Bob

At this rate the Pension providers to protect their pensions with the rest of the markets falling will have no choice but to seek out the securities of ETF's in the precious metals markets. In could well come down to that soon. Most must have lost 30% or more and they cannot continue to afford to do this to support their pension liabilities. Short term and a longer terms I see this as a safer place to be.

All the markers are there . I'd say we could see 130 by close of play

should add to this that I would expect some money to move to Gold ahead of the weekend as safe haven from more bad headlines and extended lock downs.

The DOW would be sub 20k now if it wasn't for Trump's oil deal. That's the problem for the hedge funds at present. They would have baked that oversupply in for bulk of 2020. With cuts, there will still be some signficant over supply, but the future is a bit clearer and as such heavy discounts on some Oil plays across DOW have rebounded strongly and these companies have high market caps already.

So without the OIL bounce, DOW is roughly 19900 ish and with Oil cuts talk, DOW is 21250. So Trump and Fed have saved another 2000pts (roughly speaking).

Yesterday, the unemployment figures were so poor it instantly saw a move into Gold by some funds. If this happens on each occasion of poor data headlines, then you can see why Gold is heading back to $1700's again. When the data improves, it will return back to $1500's. But that's 6 months off if that.

The NFP figures to be announced today,will not show the true extent of the downturn.
As they are based on statistics taken up to 12March.

In prep. for NY opening -hopefully we now will respond.
The market will always see Gold as the safe haven.

US March Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) due 13.30 today. Last Thursday 26/3 US Initial first time jobless came in at a record 3.28m, and brought home to some people that the economic battle is just beginning and it is going to be long and hard.

Today's NFP could report a staggering 10% to 20% US unemployment. That's from record low unemployment in February!

Over the next couple of months the data will likely get worse. The length of the virus activity and lockdown will determine whether we have a nasty recession for a few quarters or a 1930's style depression.

We've had a bounce off the selling fatigue bottom of 23/3 but a number of well respected hedge fund managers note that we have not yet seen the "capitulation" bottom for the stock market in the US yet. Perhaps the coming tidal wave of terrible data and Q1 earnings downgrades in April will lead to the the capitulation.

In April with a stream of terrible data incoming it seems plausible that there will be a re-test of the 23/3 DJ low of 18,214 and S&P 2192 and one final plunge and selling climax clear-out. European markets will take their cue from the US.

Hang on Centamin holders we may have one more storm to endure before discussing dividend growth and earnings upgrades going forward with new vigorous management.

Well played Tony. I would have set limit order at 121.7 buy . 120 a definite buffer of late but the market will know that and put buy orders in to the book at 121 odd. Your point on gain very true. Compound 1% gain per day and see where you are at the end of the year. The trick of course is maintaining 1% gain per day.
Will maintain my full allocation in CEY and miners perhaps trading when looks failsafe. LOL

Regards

Bob