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Hi Spoonington,
Too much salt on your cornflakes this morning?
If only it were meaningless rubbish, unfortunately its several years worth of uncleared spoil that has severely restricted access and hobbled production until it is cleared away!
You imply that shareholders that believed what they were told by the previous management were "Stupid", whereas in reality it was a case of intentional continued sharp practice and the withholding of the truth regarding the state of the Sukari operation.
I have provided informed and truthful analysis, you have provided copious amounts of vitriol !
As many, have commented the great thing about this board, is that it encompasses different views and tolerance of them. I agree with Spoonington and preferred the rising share and decent dividend under the previous management, even if it meant it couldn’t go on forever, it was preferable to not at all. Now we are promised a relatively low yielding share and the management has yet to prove itself in my humble opinion but as said it takes both views. As regards the share price it looks forward and with less confidence in the gold price this week than last shares will likely be lower at the same price. wWhen compared to a few year ago it will be much lower at the same gold price because costs have risen with inflation, so we need higher gold each year for the same profit and share price.
Gold still virtually where it was on Friday close, but the MM like to push people through their stops losses so as to churn the share and make a profit!
Agreed Ken!
Hi Paul,
Nice summing up!
I hadn't intending going over old ground again, but Spoonington tries to imply that the new management aren't performing as well as the previous management which as we are aware certainly isn't the case.
Also new investors have been asking the reasons why we are in the "last stop saloon!", we LTH are well aware of the reasons, but we should let others know so that they can be aware and prepared.
Keep well!
Tibbs
From what i can see on the chart,i very slightly favour 90p rather than 99p as being the next low.
Any help out there ?.
That might be the case Bob-----------but maybe you forgot the " suggest you buy shares now and get out the same time as Josef"?
I dont think to keep going over what happened is going to do any good Mr T and maybe might put people off investing here as well.
I think you are right about what has happened and long term it has not done us any good. Slower and steadier would have yielded roughly the same amount of gold (averaged out over the years) with less drama, more confidence in the managment and company and probably a higher share price.
Many years ago, a previous owner of my property hade a load of limstone put into the ground. I try and reclaim a little bit of it each year. I've had to use a mattock on some of it as I cannot get a spade in------------and some of it a pickaxe!
The way i prefer to do it is to get all the material out, then sieve it, take the stone down the garden and put the soil back into the hole (having added twigs and compost first). It is the way I prefer to do it, rather than dig a smaller hole and do it in stages. If there was gold in there, I wouldnt get any until the sieving stage. Anyhow --Im sure you understand what Im on about.
At 99.8p on oversold signals on daily and lower time intervals. weekly RSI still at 46. Drip feeding in.
Hi Bob,
That was a fantastic summing up in your post, I see you have a great sence of humour and that's the type of people I like in life, so keep the jovial comments coming through.
Atb
Ken
European stock exchanges were muted ahead of the first session of the week during which investors will monitor Eurozone jobs and economic growth data and United Kingdom inflation figures. Potential revisions to the preliminary fourth quarter 2022 GDP report are expected to affect market sentiment.
The DAX decreased by 0.12%, London's FTSE 100 gained 0.06% and the CAC 40 rose by 0.10% at 8:04 am CET. The EURO STOXX 50 was nearly unchanged at the same time.
Both the euro and the British pound were flat compared to the dollar at 7:59 am CET, trading at 1.06749 and 1.20540, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MS
Happy Monday y’al
“stocks muted” is a new one!
Instead on ranting on with meaningless rubbish why not look at actual results in terms of gold mined, dividends paid & cash reserves accumulated?
Compare & contrast current & previous management on that basis removing any bias resulting from an “I want a scapegoat for my own stupidity” mentality.
If you are capable of doing the above you may be able to ascertain a more informed analysis of the state of affairs :)
So we can attribute this mess, which is as Bob eluded to worse than admitted to the previous management!
Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Centamin plc (LON:CEY), since the last five years saw the share price fall 37%. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 16% in thirty days.
Since Centamin has shed UK£44m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares/news/02-earnings-growth-over-5-years-has-not-materialized-into-ga-8
Risk Checks
We perform automated risk checks on every company. We flag any failed checks as potential investment risks. A company which passes all our checks, however, is not 'risk free'.
Centamin (CEY) Risk Checks
Fail Are revenue and earnings forecast to grow?
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 16.7% per year for the next 3 years
Section 2.1
Fail Is their dividend sustainable?
Dividend of 6.18% is not well covered
From 2015 then updated in 2018 , still Pardey & Co were denying anything was wrong and they carried on with the high grading!
Management has put a gloss over this in their latest 5-year production plan, artificially holding down the strip ratio and assuming continuation of underground mining at a very high level, without having the mineral reserves to sustain this.
Should this 5-year plan be implemented, the life of the operation will be curtailed to only these five years, unless there is a major increase in the gold price.
The table below illustrates that open-pit ore is uneconomical at current mined grade at the required strip ratio and a price of US$1,200/oz. The current good financial performance of Sukari can almost fully be attributed to underground mining.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-out-while-going-is-good
Updated 2018 The financial performance of Centamin is highly leveraged to the gold price
with NPV5 changing by 5.5% for every percentage point change in the gold price.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229201-kees-dekker-reviews-centamin-plc-analysis
https://seekingalpha.com/author/kees-dekker#regular_articles
This is how things were Spoonington under the last management!
Nov. 19, 2015 5:00 AM ET
The positive factors supporting the historical performance will soon come to an end.
Management's 5-year plan sacrifices long-term future.
Open-pit reserves need a much better gold price to be economical.
Executive Summary
This valuation is based on a cash flow model which uses the latest 5-year production plan of Centamin (LSE: CEY) (OTCPK:CELTF), combined with the long-term schedule in the 2015 feasibility study, to deplete the reserves of material destined to be treated in the Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) plant of the Sukari mine at a rate of approximately 11 million tonnes per annum. Using the gold price as per 17 November 2015 of US$1,070/oz, a net present value at a discount rate of 5% of minus US$89.2 million was arrived at, far more than the Enterprise Value of US$881.9 million for Centamin on that day.
The review of the technical and financial information comes to the following general conclusions:
• Centamin's value is essentially determined by its 50% interest in the Sukari operation.
• The mine is cash-generative even at the current gold price, allowing for return of funds to shareholders as dividends and share buy-backs as capital expenditure has dropped considerably.
• The good cash performance is due to a combination of underground production with very good margins, open-pit mining at low stripping ratios, income tax exemption and profit sharing deferred until investments having been recovered and the mine coming into operation when the gold price was at US$1,000/oz rising to above US$1,600/oz for the period mid-2011 until end-2012.
• The historical performance is as good as it gets as all the positive factors mentioned in the previous bullet point come to an end within the next few years.
• Management has put a gloss over this in their latest 5-year production plan, artificially holding down the strip ratio and assuming continuation of underground mining at a very high level, without having the mineral reserves to sustain this.
• Should this 5-year plan be implemented, the life of the operation will be curtailed to only these five years, unless there is a major increase in the gold price.
• The table below illustrates that open-pit ore is uneconomical at current mined grade at the required strip ratio and a price of US$1,200/oz. The current good financial performance of Sukari can almost fully be attributed to underground mining.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-going-good
Spoonington,
You should know about regurgitation you have done enough of that concerning how grateful we should all be to the she last bunch of carpetbaggers!
The last management last management were running a "Pyramid" scheme where they were able to cream of all the best grades for short term gain for the own advantage, unfortunately they did this by using inappropriate mining practice until the mine was rendered nearly unworkale by several years of uncleared waste ($467m to clear up)and the company lost half its value and complete credibility with the market!
Hi Tibbs
Purely a bit of fun. However I sadly was not at that meeting but may have been at similar in my previous life. On many things Tibbs we differ but on the way in which the markets are manipulated and the omerta operates we are probably at least on the same platform. However the trick is to see the manipulation and profit from it. Sadly Feb 24 2022 gave massive opportunities in Raytheon, Boeing BAE, Lockheed, et al . A different debate as to whether ethical to profit from the tragedy of war . I did not this time !!!!!!! Had no need but a day traders heaven . Best fun to have with your clothes on is day trading directly into the book leveraged 10 or 20 times depending on the stock being traded, However like gambling take the profit and run . MOST ESSENTIAL ADVICE IS THAT YOU DONT NEED TO TRADE EVRY DAY OR EVESleep tight every one N EVERY WEEK. Compound 1% return per day on 200 days per annum. Wont happen but neither is winning the lottery.
Sleep tight every one
Kindest regards
Bob
Hi Bob,
Fantastic sketch, or is it?
But that said in this instance it's a case of "Many a true word spoken in jest!!"
Are you quite sure that you weren't at this meeting "incognito"?
Kind Regards
Tibbs
Hi All
Just to bring some jocularity to the board and snipe as you will it will make no difference to me
Scenario one Meeting at EMRA with Government reps present with Pardey and Joseph etc present. We are really fighting a rear guard action on Law 32 et al and not sure we can hold the present position. Can you ramp up the production to exhibit proof that Sukari was a wise enterprise for the Egyptian Government and bang some dollars into our economy as valid proof.
We can but we shall ahve to cut some corners to get there. So be it go to it.
3 years later
Non exec to Blackrock , Standard etc etc via a secure but deniable line. Probably face to face at a obscure meeting place more likely.
What I am about to tell you is strictly between us and i shall deny all knowledge of it as I have to protect my credibility as a Non Exec on 3 boards earning 6 + figures a year and 2 kids in top public schools to support. Sukari is about to have a major collapse of the wall as short cuts to achieve results have been made. Immediate action needs to be taken as otherwise the resulting catastrophe will render the project sterile.
Ok you have my complete silence in the matter but immediate action will occur.
Shining white knight arrives sword in hand and slays the misaligned dragon.
Just a bit of fun guys stimulated from this excellent Bourgogne shortly to be followed by a Courvoisier and expresso but VERY SADLY LACKING A DECENT HAVANA on pain of a fate worse than death from my future ex wife. Love her to bits otherwise the Havana would currently be alight.
Hope nobody takes offence at my jollity
Should be a signing off quote from the likes of Oscar Wilde or Latin similar but classics education too long ago to remember.
Kindest regards to all here
Bob
Hi Tornado and Tibbs
Firstly what a fantastic platform this is for many and diverse views. As I have said before with "skin in the game" the more obtuse and variable thoughts
(well considered and mannered ) that arise should have bearing on whatever decision making process . Firstly Tibbs I would be fascinated to hear what your contacts make of the efforts of Putin to realise the gold assets he sits on . As I understand it no exchange in the current world trading platforms will credit without physical transfer guaranteed gold value from Russia. The only stable platform who may be so willing is China but then an embargo on their reserves woud be of massive liability to their current dire economic woes. I would suggest they need to maintain contact with a market within which they can realise or use as a backed world wide asset.
I really look forward to your further considered views as could have a very large influence on future gold price.
Tornado
I fully concur with your thought process. As I have said before Hogan is not in this for buying another 50 metre yacht but as his history and CV shouts ego , ego ego, promoted by success and there is nothing wrong in that in my opinion.
Whenever a new CEO is brought in to a less than adequately performing Company (and the major Institutions would ensure the old guard fell on their sword and the new incumbent would be out of the top drawer, believe me) his first mission is to emphasise the terrible mess we has to clear up. Probably worse than actuality. A 2 year mission statement. That time is up and the major players know this. I think a progression of good news will now follow . If not I am wrong again . Success is 51% right and 49% wrong.
Have fun chaps Still holding and well above water with every thing in a ISA and do the maths over 10 years of divis. SP is only of value when crystallised.
Kindest regards to all
Bob
Horgan was delivered in football terms a hospital pass. The problems appeared very shortly after he arrived. He was reporting grade shortfalls after 3 months in post and stripping issues having to be addressed within six months. previous folk delivered this as test for him to go and fix. The company has spent two years of profits plus $150M sorting out a mess. The good news is that he has resolved it and now we get to see what he can do after sorting it all out. The last QA session was brilliant and the first of its kind for a long period of time and reveals a CEO and his team more confident. Many investors and traders are just waiting for the current gold pullback to finish which is based on pure fantasy to bottom out and it will deliver imop a significant rebound in CEY stock (note I use the word will). It is a tough month, but a big rally is to follow and Centamin is expected to deliver higher gold outputs from March onwards. Hopefully most of the servicing required is being done right now. The present pull back is creating opportunities for new people to join us in the Centamin story. Tony ( I will be buying in as well)
Mr T, i challenge you to instead of regurgitating mindless fantasies that you look at reality.
Despite mistakes of previous management I cite gold mined profits made, dividends paid &:cash reserves accumulated - facts!
What can you say about demonstrable, factual accomplishments of current management?
The good news is the gold discovered by the much maligned previous management remains in place, the capital accumulated by the much maligned previous management (albeit inefficiently eroded) remains in place, all we need is current management to exploit the resource that they have been handed - so far we have got nought!
Spoonington, not so far but we live in hope
The real question remains “has Horgan accomplished anything apart from the erosion of capital built up from the operational achievements of previous management” - I will leave it to the board to ponder that conundrum :)
Hi Bob,
I should have thought Russia's central bank would have considered this?
Good points though. I will see if I can find out, will raise your points with Andrew.
Kind Regards
Tibbs