Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Velo
You usually find boring companies have a low Pe and ones with growth have higher
At the end of the day who decides the number
Fres is on Pe of 28 and if Cey wax the same the share price would be double

Olduns? Don't fall on your sword just yet Rebess my friend. I suspect we've one last stand to make!

" .... although I often indulge in .... industry average v stock P/E, ...."

Quick example using CEY.

Forward P/E ratio for CEY is PE10.4
The Industry average is also low at PE 9.71

- Which means either a) CEY is marginally still slightly expensive, and the average SP for CEY should be circa 101.8p

Or, CEY is rated by the market as a premium stock even though the price has been fallng for a considerable time, the market still rates it higher than its peers. You decide :)

If the former then could the 101/102 area be the floor? :)

Don't ask me LOL! I couldn't possibly comment. But there other methods that I haven't even looked at - PE calc is dead fast and easy hence I showed that as an example. For fun only.

- Off for me tea.

Ray Dalio criteria for recognising bubbles?

1. How high are prices relative to traditional measures?
2. Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?
3. How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?
4. How broadly bullish is sentiment?
5. Are purchases being financed by high leverage?
6. Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?

and how do markets stack up now. Some sectors underdone, some way overdone?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-stock-market-bubble-ray-dalio/
worth a read, and the follow on comments are also interesting
the gnome

A1 @- "So you buy at 1.50 what upside do you then see I presume it's long term "

-------------------

First 150 may have long gone by then, at the current rate, should the SP hover around its present location for an extended period, then the 200 could be down by a huge amount come summer, so wouldn't like to buy at 150 this week at all :)

Strategy wise I can never answer what the upside price will be, and privately snort in derision at all pros and all gurus as well as fellow PI's when a target price is chosen for the future.

I am a trend follower so I stay in the game until the trend changes, ie., Let the trend be your friend and all that and I get out when the trend bends/ends :)

So an "upside" SP never comes into my strategy although I often indulge in fibbo calcs, industry average v stock P/E, and Discounted cashflow calcs for future SP's, and self-calculated pivot points (mine differ from the free site variety) which are often pretty accurate - until I place money on them - but then seem to work faultlessly when I don't place money on a stock LOL :(

I’m not a chartist but each to their own. It’s a defo hold for me as when you clear out all the detail, the case remains compelling, the downside has been Sukari in Oct2020 only, rest broadly inline with all other similar PMs, due to gold. I say compelling if you believe in 1)recent CEO comms via podcasts on Sukari issues getting resolved, costs reductions etc etc 2)expansion licenses will be signed (and a bonus on better deal on Sukari) 3)gold price improving. I would dump now if I thought 1) and 2) were unlikely and have dumped weeks ago if I though 1)was not going to happen

Correct Au1 - the higher end of the 150's too!
A friggin' huge distance away.

Buying when price is below the 200 practically GUARANTEES failure.

Unless you have some way of knowing the SP is about to receive a dose of rocket fuel in its morning coffee. And by that I mean some kind of good news event etc.,

What usually happens if this downtrend peters out but consolidates around here, is that the 200 gently and slowly (slower than you can ever imagine) gently descends, so making life easier for a now wounded SP to sail up past above it.

Could be a long wait. Patience - anyone got a bargain going on a bag o patience with chips?

What can also happen is something unexpected occurs (black swan event) I duuno, say something happens to gold, and suddenly the SP is in demand, then the SP could start racing up to meet the descending 200, they kiss, make up, and the SP leaves the 200 in its rear view mirror.

If the gambler comes out in me, in those circumstances I sometimes take a tiny position, but I usually regret even that. You have to be sure something has changed big time, not opinion but factual, whatever - and you know the SP is not going to be a false positive journey, as very often they can fail again when they first meet up with the 200 average.

I have a variety of trend lines in tow, so could easily take a position on one knowing I'll jump ship on a small profit that was still well short of the 200 average.

Fair comments Rebess, I wonder if they will be as patient and swallow as many excuses as we have over the next decade or so , possibly not!

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I wouldn't worry too much about trends, its clearing all the crap out of the open pit, restoring production to former levels and news of a resolved court case and the awarding of some some additional concessions in close proximity to Sukari, that's what we need!
Until some of these events take place then Centamin is in danger of going the same way as Law32 and all the other production promises since 2018 , down the pan!

I must be looking at a different chart to you I have gold in gbp as up 11.54 to 1,284

Unfortunately the market and many share holders have got fed up with the same old song from Andrew Pardey , Youssef El Raghy and their failure to deliver what they promised since 2018 and of course for allowing the open pit at Sukari to become so unsafe for working that massive investment is required to carry out two or more years of remedial excavation of rubbish to make it a safe working environment .
Martin Horgan has quite a task on his hands to sort out years of inept behavior by those at the top in the running of Sukari.
I am no fan of Mark Bristow, but from what I know I am sure that he wouldn't have been so tolerant of such failures by those running Sukari in the past , whoever they were !

I am sure the GBPUSD R/E is taking its toll on CEY SP currently.
The rate was just below 1.3 in Q1 2020, but now just over 1.4, so that alone creates approx 8% headwind.
The production hit with the west wall causes lower production and an increase in the AISC, esp with the increased capital expenses adding to the general overheads.
Velo is wisely waiting for the SP trend to change direction, but for those already invested it would seem more sensible to hold for now. My average cost is around 130p, ao an unplesant 16% loss atm, but provided production comes back at the suggested 450-500K Oz annual rate, then free cash will come on stream as long as gold holds around $1800.
Having seen CEY drop to below 30p about decade ago, and eventaully recover, I am anticipating a reasonable rise in the SP in due course and have a target of 150-160p. My purchases were intended as a short-term trade of 3-6 months, but I suspect I may be here longer waiting for my target. In the meantime I will look forward to the 3c divi expected with the Results soon, and wait for a further divi later in the year.
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Velo
Isnt the 200 ma in the 150s so you are going to have to wait a while unless the share price moves significantly
So you buy at 1.50 what upside do you then see I presume it's long term

Strong pound reduces the price of Cey in sterling, gold only went from £12.80 to £12.85 in pounds today

Dagger -
You should be aware that the all the powerful longer term trends are still bearish; so are the medium to shorter term trends too
- but worst of all the SP is seriously below the 200 day average.

YOU CAN'T FIGHT AND BEAT THOSE. DON'T EVEN TRY.
(Well you can if you join them by taking up a short position).

It's the No:1 reason us PI's lose money - telling the market what it should be doing.

I'm sniffing around CEY so waiting for the trends to change, which means (patience) I don't guess floors, but often for fun join in with others guestimating the floor.

But ultimately I just don't trust my own human emotions when it comes to the stock market. Only cold unemotional data.

At the moment, whatever I, you, or anyone else thinks, ultimately market sentiment is still (CURRENTLY) bearish towars CEY - surely you can see that?

I do though like how it's skimming along now only slightly downwards; not diving deeply at the moment,a little more parallel, rangebound, skimming along for a significant time and a flat base could develop - and they always end in an explosive breakout - to the upside, IMO.

In the spirit of: If you can't beat 'em - join 'em, I'm waiting for the market sentiment to turn first and then do just that - follow the uptrend.
Often that means I miss the absolute bottom lowest price, as waiting for the turn means missing out on the lowest price and vica-versa when selling.
What's left is the bulk of the meat on the bone.

Dagger
See what Powell says to Congress this week on the rising bond yields and what the Fed could do to stop them going up
If bonds fall gold will rise and hopefully the share price,other then that you are going to have to wait for some good news from the company but they are a little slow in doing things

Dagger I have been perplexed for 11 years.
The SP movements have always been the same. There is always a time lag following gold.
SlmostUnpredictable

Good to see a lot of new posters here and with them their new ideas. - Changing of the guard maybe. - Time for us olduns to move over and move on perhaps. :-)

Hi everyone

I'm perplexed. Why did SP not move even slightly north today? Can some of the wiser heads on here explain.
Strong pound, €25 increase in POG.
Why no move north. I'm prepared to be patient, but any ideas when we may see a move north?
Seems resistance is 1.05 ish. Not bothered about t/o talk that's not in my mindset. Just based on fundamentals and mkt I'd have thought she'd move a bit?

Take care guys
DaggerMal

nice one CEY. same again , please.
oh, and big UT.

thank you

Cheers Mod. I'll add them to my reading list!

Dagger

You 're welcome, DaggerMal. Taylor Dart is not God, but one of the very best in analysing precious metal miners. From the fundamental as well as the technical analysis side. When he has a go with his own money -albeit for a small investment-, i feel confident doing the same.

Will be anounced with year end results. Expected to be 3c, amking total of 9USc for year.
With R/E of approx GBPUSD 1.4, gives 6.4p and current yield ~5.8%

The dividend max timetable was for announcment today, but think this is wrong.