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My strategy is hold what I've got, don't sell anything, and sometime in the next 2 years I will be having a drink with the profits... Easy days have now moved on and we are left with the tough gains
Share acquisitions at the level we have seen mean nothing to me as I don’t know their financial positions but would be gobsmacked if they were anything more than pocket change for the purchasers ...
Ever since June20 all i’ve heard is “market crash” on the cards- glad I didn’t listen, massive gains on my other investments since then
U S Markets at an all time high due to QE, mass speculation on fiat bitcoin. We face a market crash and inflation driven gains in stocks and commodities at the same time. Tricky situation whats everyone's strategy and assessment on the current situation.
In fairness Sotolo you are correct.
Martin Morgan’s input as CEO is way more important than an impressive share acquisition.
And to date I am content with what I’ve seen of him via the live cc.
It is a point none the less that a purchase of 50k shrs would have been better received than the 16k
It is controversial but you’ve got every shareholder comparing his own holding to what the CEO purchased.
The effect is poor.
Really interesting interview explains a lot about whats is happening to the POG, the UK LBMA is trying to squirm out of complying with Basil 3 until at least Jan 2022 so that it can carry on running the paper ponzi scheme!
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire details the correlation with a historical metric pointing to a potential astronomical increase in gold and silver prices.
The precious metals expert breaks down why the SLV is unable to source enough 1000 oz silver bars to fill its baskets, and updates us on the major banks standing for physical delivery on April COMEX contracts.
I think Horgan is doing the only thing he can to increase the share price by trying to increase profits, which will take a couple of years. If gold falls $300 we will be in loss this year and next but have the cash to survive that, and then our costs come down and ounces up a bit but only as much as are relatively cheap to mine and work long term
Well said Razors. I could stomach the overgenerous share options granted only two months into his role if he had already made a large personal purchase...just like all the leading gold and silver mine CEO's in US and Canada.
Rick Rule says there are two types of precious metal mine company. The preferred oneType mine gold and nurture their shareholders and shareholder returns. The other type mine the shareholders.
Arguably Centamin has far too many shares in issue and they are far too cheap. What is Horgan going to do about that. A new gold rally will lift all mine stocks but I want to see some genuine progress from management as to where we are going with our collective considerable investment.
They owe it to us.
African Gold Acquisition Corp., a special purpose acquisition company targeting gold assets on the continent, will price its stock on Thursday ahead of a listing aimed at raising funds to target “well trodden” mining countries on the continent..
“We are the only Africa mining-focused SPAC amongst a sea of SPACs,” said Rob Hersov, the founder and chairman of the company, said by text message. Targets will be in known mining nations, “so no surprises. And we will likely buy a mining company and possibly add others thereafter.”
Hersov is the son of Basil Hersov, who ran AngloVaal Mining Ltd., the company founded by his father and once one of South Africa’s biggest mining companies. Chris Chadwick, a former director of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd., is chief executive officer.
The offer for about $300 million of stock has been “heavily oversubscribed,” Rob Hersov said.
“There isn’t a listed U.S. international gold mining company and there are a lot of interesting mining companies and assets looking for capital to expand,” he said
Along with the launch businessman Rob Hersov, heir to the founding family of mining giant AngloVaal, is also pouring money into politics ahead of municipal elections in August.
Marmot74, good topic. James Rutherford bought two 100k blocks of shares, the first at a cost of £1.51 per shr and the second at £1.20 per shr. A welcomed endorsement in anyone’s book. Martin Horgan bought 16,406 shr at £1.21
This to me was a lame display from the CEO.
Instead of making a clear heads up show of commitment he left me and I expect everyone else wondering what was that about.
I seriously believe he would have be better buying some stock somewhere else if he wants to make a few pounds.
If he bought the 16,406 to impress people of his commitment the amount confirmed a total failure.
time for stan life to eat their lunch
like quantworld or whatever they are called not giving up
Great post Arfur. It's all knowledge for me to draw on.
A well balanced summary of our collective angst as gold mine shareholders not yet at the party. But I do believe Cinderella (Gold,silver and miners) will be off to the ball soon.
We've had a 7 month slump where miners have fallen x2 gold's drop co's like Barrick and the accident prone mid-caps with higher beta and low price high volatility...like CEY,HOC have declined 50% from last August's new ATH. It just rubbed in how out of favour the miners are but that can change very rapidly as April 2020 proved.
As a contrarian trade a long overdue general stock market correction will set off the next gold rally and it will catch many unawares.
But in this cheap price doldrums it is an ideal time to bargain hunt especially if you are a wealthy director who shared $305m from the sale of your last company Toro. There is a Centamin precedent I was a shareholder when the late Harry Michael on his appointment as CEO bought on 21/3/11, 1m shares at 125.85p. An investment of £1.2m which demonstrated commitment to the cause.
That would cheer up holders if Horgan stepped up and shared the angst and the future profits by now matching his share options with his own money. The price is 16% less than Harry Michal paid in 2011. A bargain which will soon be gone.
Mr T, I dont think they can afford to raise real interest rates, the world is loaded with debt, they want they Inflation. But if they did raise rates, all hell would break loose, and that would push gold too, IMHO.
I dont understand this market, GMs are getting unloved and gold Price is weak but inflation if on the cusp? Silver is Q high but silver miners are fairing poorly. Copper is booming, signalling inflation, but even the likes of Barrick are down. What I have missed... There should be some strength somewhere give the 1.9trillion about to be agreed tomoz, combined with copper n inflation worries.
On a separate note I voted Brexit. What a fcking mistake that was.
I have been looking at the unprecedented number of short positions taken on the US dollar by speculators, and the corresponding ‘longs’ by the commercial (smart?) money. There is huge resistance around the 89 – 88 level for $DXY. Of course, the dollar’s fall can continue for a long time, even from this extreme position. However, this, together with the almost total ‘risk off’ attitude in the markets at present, leads me to suspect a turning point is close.
The press is all over the ‘new commodity super cycle’ story, which I do believe we have entered, but it is making investors careless. I think it’s likely the stock indices will make a turn down soon, and the $US will rise if only to cool things off for a period. I have been looking at platinum to reach $1375. I’m not sure it will get there and may well have topped with silver, but there is always the possibility of a final spike up for these commodities, and spike down for the dollar.
I’m sure there is more in the tank for stock markets yet, but I’m getting nervous. Consequently, I have de-risked equity positions today but have kept core holdings in Centamin, and a couple of other gold miners and small oil companies, which are due significant announcements.
Bullion banks have clearly been defending the $1950, $1900 and $1850 levels on gold. They want me out of gold so they can load up! I will not oblige. On initial dollar strength, I am looking for the spike down in gold and the massive short covering on the Canadian gold miners. I will then add a 50% increase in position to Centamin. Yes, gold will rise with the dollar just as it has fallen with the dollar since August last year. It is future real interest rates that matter, which just shows the bond market is ‘smarter’ than us PIs.
On the question of ‘off topic’ chat, my view is that Bitcoin, Brexit and the like, do impact the gold market. I look at capital flows and if you are talking about other investments, then it means you are interested in those and not other things. Besides, with the pubs shut, you guys/gals need somewhere to pontificate.
These are just my views and are very probably completely wrong – I can see you shaking your heads already.
Maybe I’m just misty about gold.
Incredible that a debt ridden company like Cineworld is approaching a £1!!! And CEY heading down. Words fail me.
Mr T, NASDAQ stuffed with tech stocks which have gone ballistic during pandemic for obvious reasons- slight pullback last few days due to recovery from pandemic most likely.
Mr Tibbles apart from poor past management by trying to ever increase production.
Now there are many traders trapped here and cannot afford too sell.
I do not see 150 s plus till next year at the earliest ,too long for most new traders.
Even if they continue the divi s.
The main issue here is not so much nominal interest rates, it's “real” rates (ie, interest rates after inflation). The main worry for markets is that rising real rates mean that monetary conditions are getting tighter in “real” terms.
But if inflation keeps rising along with nominal interest rates then markets will find it hard to find reason to panic. That's more of a simple “return to normal” (or a return to levels seen before the pandemic, which were still pretty unusual).
As Jones points out, this seems the more likely scenario for now...
Executive editor, MoneyWeek
In 2013, the US economy looked as though it was properly recovering from the financial crisis.
So the Federal Reserve chief at the time, Ben Bernanke, decided that it might be a good idea to stop printing quite as much money.
He told markets this. They threw a major wobbly, known as the “taper tantrum”.
The big question today is: are we heading for a repeat performance?
The ten-year US Treasury bond now yields about 1.4%. In other words, the US government will pay you 1.4% interest a year if you agree to lend it money for a decade. In the grand scheme of things, that's a very low number.
Before the start of 2020, you had to go back to the big deflation panic of 2016 (when Britain voted to leave the EU) to find the yield anywhere near that low. Prior to that, you're looking at the 1940s.
However, as you might have noticed, 2020 was an odd year. When the global pandemic took hold, US Treasury yields ended up plumbing never-before-seen depths. In March last year at one point, the yield fell to less than 0.35%.
And in summer it was still sitting around 0.5%. So while the yield on the ten-year is still extremely low, it has just about tripled in the last six months. That's a rapid move in a very important price.
Why is it moving higher? Because markets expect a strong recovery for the US economy. On top of that, they expect the US government to push through more “stimulus”. And on top of that, some expect the US government to go further and spend a lot more money on “greening” the country's infrastructure.
If bond yields rise because markets expect strong growth, that's probably not going to cause markets a major headache in the short term. But there's another reason why bond yields might rise, notes Oliver Jones of Capital Economics - and that's if they think that the Federal Reserve is going to tighten up monetary policy earlier than expected.
This is what happened in 2013's “taper tantrum”, when then-Fed chief Ben Bernanke rattled markets by attempting to map out an exit from quantitative easing, in response to an improving US economy.
So what's going on this time? Markets do seem to be rattled. The Nasdaq in particular has struggled over the past few days; gold prices have done likewise. So is another spasm of panic on the horizon?
Hi Mr Bond,``
The overriding problem is the that Mr Pardey and Mr Youssef didn't address the problems that became public knowledge 2016, they glossed over the facts, but then when they were forced to admit there were problems in 2018 they carried on in the same old way, glossing over the real state of the open pit and making promises that weren't delivered because of an inevitable, but unexpected at that time (2020) pit wall problem which has been made worse by several years accumulation of waste.
The market and LTH have been fed far too much baloney or far too long and now confidence is down the pan!
Lets hope Martin Horgan can restore this lost confidence with creditable actions that deliver on promised guidance!
James Rutherford bought £150k at start of Oct and £120k in December at prices around 150 and 120 so that is a sizeable vote of confidence. - of course he may not have guessed gold would fall 20% (in sterling which is what counts)
What are peoples thoughts about the 4x director buys in October and December following the share price weakness?
I'm wondering if this could be a hint that they know the extent of the mine collapse damages have been oversold by the market and will not impact Centamin's earnings proportionally.
I realise this is theorycrafting and we will find out more in March but the directors who bought in above 120p must feel there is plenty of upside at this price. Keen to get other peoples thoughts.