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Velo
" But at their level I'm unsure what effect their part-buying would have on the price"
maybe nothing if it is merely "passive" buying/selling
An instruction to a broker can merely be, to be on the other side of a trade ...."passive" involvement...
If there are people looking to buy...you can just be on the other side offering a sell....and vice versa ..
You aren't making the lead move...you know what you want to do..you merely go on the other side of the trade of others lead to achieve it...
On the way down...say from 150p to 100p...you can "passively" just buy the sells that are being offered to the market... you are not "actively" searching to buy..but merely taking the other side of the trade of the downward trend.....in order to build a position that you want for the longer term
Thanks velo I'm always looking to improve and take idea's on board gla regards jack
( Concludes > > > )
. . . I sold mostly within days after each rise, and in all but one case the SP retreated just after I sold the latest new tranche. By multiplying the amount of shares by the new lowered average, the full amount of my original investment is revealed.
(The red loss always sits there staring right back at you).
But of course, one of those stocks is now at 50p and the other at 70p so a big ask to get them over a £1 (and unlikely any time soon).
(The 70p stock has risen from when I did this at then 55p; both stocks are now rated highly by Stockopedia, but I rate them both as sheer crap). Had them for years.
This downtrend could be ideal for DT's hedge fund to do that. Bit more difficult for Drahi as he's not under water. (He'd have to add and thus increase his average).
But at their level I'm unsure what effect their part-buying would have on the price. Spiky to say the least I imagine.
Someone (DT?) was doing it a lot during BT's 5 year downtrend as there were regular bullish mini breakouts - but they never lasted.
Who's to say DT's hedge fund carers, weren't making their owners "very happy to hold" doing that?
Summary:
Not repeat: NOT to be attempted unless you can seriously identify floors and breakouts.
And that is a task that never gets any easier - for anyone - pro's and PI's alike.
Monkeyjack @ " Velo I would be very interested in hearing your strategy on a falling share gla regards jack "
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Okay Jack; it's really quite straightforward, it's not rocket science.
Averaging down, then selling when it rises - that's it.
First you have to decide what it is you want to achieve. In my case it's achieving an overall lower buying price average in a hopeless situation, then any little rise makes it easier to sell up with not the same amount of huge loss.
You start back in the day with say 1,000 shares @ £5 per share for say £5k's worth of stock but years later the SP has fallen steadily to 90p and is now valued at only £900.
No good telling yourself you should have sold far sooner, the damage is done. What you gonna do?
In my case I like to buy the exact same amount in shares - so I buy 1,000 shares @ 90p for £900.
Now my account is showing 2,000 shares with an original cost of £5,900. So the average price paid has now dropped instantly from £5 per share to £2.95
As the current price is 90p you can either wait until the SP rises to £2.95, sell the lot and escape (unlikely) or sell as soon as the price rises enough to cover commission and spread costs and sell only the 1,000 shares, leaving the account with 1,000 shares valued at the new SP that has risen to say, 95p valuing your holding at now £950, but still with the huge red loss showing. The loss doesn't go away.
You could go on to do it a second time or more as I have reducing the average each time, even if you buy a bit higher, so long as it keeps rising again (unlikely)
- mostly to date I've done each stock concerned only twice each. So should the SP fall to say 80p you do the same again. And down goes the average SP.
If the price instead keeps on dropping then you become a victim of the "Catch a falling knife" syndrome - throwing money away - that is warned about in every investment book ever written. Dangerous.
I've been fortunate. Or lucky?
The catch is this: You first have to be very good at identifying floors and breakouts otherwise how are you to know the SP has ceased falling? And how are you to know it's now in a confirmed uptrend?
I use a variety of charting tools "to try" and reach those conclusions (another subject entirely) and it always carries risk.
In my case I've brought one stock down from £2-odd to 136p and another held in two accounts from 260p odd to 160 odd, with the other account in the same stock reduced from £2.20 odd to 126p I intend reducing them all further - and both with the original qty of shares, not any more or any less.
I sold mostly within days after each rise, and in all but one case the SP retreated just after I sold the latest new tranche. By multiplying the amount of shares by the new lowered average, the full amount of my original old investment is revealed.
(The red loss always sits there staring right back at you).
But of cour
( Continues > > > )
Closed up 2p on the week, first up week in 5. Let's see what next week brings.
Thanks Velo will do regards jack
Thanks Velo, Very interesting.
Indeed Poker’ Haha, Worked very hard, not in toil and sweat ( I very much doubt his Armani shirt sleeves have rarely been rolled up), but in the effort/difficulty rating to keep things quiet.
M/Jack - busy now but will reply, but maybe tonight or on the weekend.
In the meantime by Googling: Catching a falling knife - you'll get half the gist of my reply.
Velo I would be very interested in hearing your strategy on a falling share gla regards jack
" What does he hope to achieve by selling some stock that he worked so hard to accumulate on the quiet. "
worked so hard ??,
i imagine he employed a number of brokers and gave them a buy limit each....and then after accumulating added them together and declared ..each one under 3%
I doubt he himself did anything more than give out the buying instruction and made funds available....all with client confidentiality
( Concludes > > > )
. . . I wouldn't be surprised to learn that none of the cost of the BT shares has come out of his own personal pocket but is being financed by merchant banks. If he's doing what I've being doing last year and just last month too - then by using BT's shares (a small portion only) to sell and buy back - he's paying the merchant bank fees - for free.
Call it catch a falling knife, but if you're curious to how I've done it several times in other stocks, what I'm proposing Drahi may or might be doing similar or has done, I can reveal all in a separate post (if you request it)
- but catching a falling knife (succesfuly so far) should be enough to inform you how I retain the exact same amount of shares I started out with yet pocketed a little profit on each occasion and the true purpose of the trades - lowered my buying-in price average by a pound per share.
When I say don't rule out Drahi selling, you infer the entire holding - whilst I am implying maybe only 2% of his 12% holding traded back and forth in downtrends - just to pay his fees so he encounters no personal expense to his financial backers fees.
Just musings to show he doesn't think like us amateur PI's hugging shares to our chests, whilst posting as we are prone to do: 'no one's having my shares on the cheap'.
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PS. I will conclude with the threar trowards BT that one of Drahi's minions who headed up one of Drahi's subsidary companies issued at the height of the 'Openreach up for sale' media witch hunt.
The company leading the approach failed to persuade the sale of Openreach but concluded to the media with this:
" We will get Openreach, the only question is: you can do it the easy way or the hard way".
After that nothing; then flash bang wallop several months later - and that minion's boss suddenly acquires 12% of BT stock.
" What does he hope to achieve by selling some stock that he worked so hard to accumulate on the quiet. "
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This post is too long, bet I regret it :)
Larry, Larry, mate - You're more open-minded than that; you're displaying how the ordinary man in the street thinks.
- These are the super-wealthy rich, we're talking about here (£13b Drahi is worth) The reports of Amazon, Facebook bosses and other super-rich bosses wealth going up billions this year alone yet paying less tax than the average US citizen are not fake news items. (Read the 1990's classic; Rich Dad, Poor Dad).
I've operated how he might sell to gain more in my own investing in the past few months elsewhere (and I'll explain how I do it - from the kitchen table in a moment) - if an amateur like me can do it, how much is it worth to the Drahi's of the world?
Take DT for instance and their 12% shareholding. When interviewed by the media how they felt about their £5 shares now worth less than half their value their spokesman replied:
- We're delighted and very happy with our holding.
That's how people come to post your sentence above. You believe it.
But it's what the spokesman said next that went unnoticed in the wider media, but I ran with it here years ago, in a couple of posts.
He closed with:
"We couldn't be happier with our holding in BT, and we've transferred all the BT holdings to a hedge fund for safe keeping."
LOL! A hedge fund. Blackstone I think, not Blackrock.
Not an investment bank mind - but a hedge fund.
What do you think hedge funds do for a living? Don't make me explain as I credit people more gumption than that, despite that assertion sentence I've pasted-in at the very top.
I'm currently tracking that Jim Mellon billionaire mentioned below. He has billions in wealth beyond dreams of avarice yet I'm taken aback that in all the successful companies and chains he sets up of how little of his own wealth is risked in those ventures. He invites venture capitalists and general investors to stump up the majority of the money - at little risk to himself - yet everyone talks of this guy with the same business esteem as they do Drahi.
Drahi's company came under duress the other year collapsing some 50% in value because the market couldn't believe he could handle the extreme debt he had incurred in acquiring those businesses. Obviously he survived without being out of pocket.
2 merchant banks came forward to disown Drahi claim by confessing it was they who had each purchased BT stock on Drahi's behalf commencing back in March 2021 to get round market regulations, then in the final two weeks transferred all the shares into his name - for a fee. Drahi then said I've just bought 12% of BT shares - (which was true but not in the stock market; but privately).
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that none of the cost of the BT shares has come out of his own personal pocket but is
( Continues > > > )
Velo, “ Why rule out that a steady drop in the SP is usually the sign of a big holder/s reducing their position? Could he be selling a couple of % of his holding? With the intention of buying back more stock cheaper through his intermediaries like he has done thus far and thus evade the market regulators inspection?
Why is everyone assuming he will only ever want to buy?”
Hi Velo, Drahi published via the media once he had accumulated 12.1%, I guess that was important to him, to be the biggest share holder at just a fraction more than DT.
Drahi is a telecoms man and has bought into a telecoms company, he has met everybody except the Pope, even the CWU. What does he hope to achieve by selling some stock that he worked so hard to accumulate on the quiet. I think he is still quietly accumulating shares, and may well have had more than 12.1% when he aired his holding, no rules broken there.
"I bet the mms still open share price lower.
Is it the frenchman ? "
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The reason the Frenchman has outwitted not only the market regulators but the entire market too, taking all by surprise is that he doesn't follow herd thinking.
Why rule out that a steady drop in the SP is usually the sign of a big holder/s reducing their position?
Could he be selling a couple of % of his holding? With the intention of buying back more stock cheaper through his intermediaries like he has done thus far and thus evade the market regulators inspection?
Why is everyone assuming he will only ever want to buy?
Just under 28 million traded today.enenchman
At 17.47 11,703,793 @174.55.purchase.
I bet the mms still open share price lower.
Is it the frenchman ?