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yep i could be in for that, still doing ok on my small Tullow and Richland holdings , sold a little BP today to buy MKA which looks interesting , got burnt on 88e interesting lesson on holding for drill results OMD says take profits before hand , issue was I didnt have any !! Id think for BPC its sensible to plan setup October and ultimately go SPUD for November GLA
Starchild- count me in for that!
Shami. Your research into hurricane risks was very good. How about spud date moved to November, oil found in December, farm-in partners publicly fight each other to get into the action, SP surges to £1, we all spend Christmas in the Bahamas at a BPC sponsored week long shareholders' fancy dress party. I propose Togas, however we can vote on this nearer the time, based on shareholding.
Thought i would do some research around hurricanes in the area since people have mentioned the risk of drilling in October.
From what i can gather:
There have been 27 major hurricanes since 1871. Out of these only 6 have been post September with 5 very early October and 1 in November
The area on average is hit every 2.41 years with the last been Hurricane Dorian September 2019
Longest gap between storms was 10 years from 1908
It looks like, although still a very real risk of hurricanes in October, it is probably one of the lower risk dates to drill within the hurricane season.
From what i have gathered speaking to friends in the industry, in the event of a hurricane while drilling, they are usually detected well in advance and steps can be put into place to suspend drilling and move away from the site, to return to when safe. Apparently its not so much of an issue apart from obvious delays (this information is just what i have been told and i have no experience of this- so any other info from people with experience would be great)
All in all, drilling in October in terms of hurricane risk appears low, although still a very real risk!
IMO so far the BOD have managed risk very well for this venture and i am sure will have contingency plans in place to drill in hurricane season.
It would be great for the drill to go ahead this year, i don't think anyone will disagree with that. But IMO waiting to early next year (if possible) would be an ideal solution to minimise risk, not just hurricane but possible stumbling blocks following Covid.
Drilling next year may disappoint many but could be well worth the wait. And i am sure for many LTH, an extra few months is manageable.
Atb all. Hang in there and stay safe