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Egg, fully agree it must have been a tough decision but it potentially saved the company. Sadly the unknown also of what is further down will no doubt not give the company a fully favourable farm out deal if one is available, but beggars can’t be choosers and a deal hopefully will be done. I only hope the company issue a final date for a conclusion to any deal rather than more talk about talks about people talking about talks of a farm out because they apparently were talking a lot before P1 and nothing materialised. I hope the company have learnt from lessons of the past. Especially funding. IMO if anyone thinks what was done before P1 and how it was done was even in anyway in the shareholders best interest then they are delusional.
New slate is needed , transparency, cut out the BS , deliver on timelines , cut down overheads, hopefully a very successful Saffron can get us back to 2p, maybe 1.5p if there is a big load of dilution on the horizon! There is potential here but it if it is managed like in the past IMO shareholders will not get good real value from it. However the board on their current high level of wage for a small MCAP company will.
What is exactly they have done successfully before?
icemax
“until the company puts out a clear, coherent and transparent statement about its finances and plans all further movements will end similarly”
Spot on. There is really nothing more to be said in the meantime. This won’t stop Starchild etc., but posters who tell people what they want to hear will always find an audience. It’s a shame that their audience don’t back test Starchild etc.’s earlier posts against the subsequent RNSs, because funding is one of the many things that they have been consistently wrong about. Consistently.
In the meantime folk would be better of making hay while the sun is shining in the investable universe and ignoring the siren call of the likes of BPC and UKOG. That’s certainly my plan.
Hi EggChaser
Tbh, I can't easily locate where the large sells came from, as conversions haven't been announced. Could be some of the 135m shares being flipped, but could equally be a heavy PI flipping those bought in the late 40s and early 50s? Dunno.
I'd agree that the current SP reflects a good measure of the uncertainty, and so in that regard is priced in. I think the fact that the recent rise failed to get any real momentum lays bear the fact that until the company puts out a clear, coherent and transparent statement about its finances and plans all further movements will end similarly.
As said, there are a couple of key financial events occurring on 16th April - the decision on how much additional draw-down to take at this time, plus the reconciliation to the Put - so I'd be looking for an RNS the week after next. It would be good if the company could take that opportunity to make really clear what its financial position is, how that finance will be proportioned against opex and capex, as well as reserved for any unpaid and/or dispute costs, and so provide a clear picture about how its targets will be funded.
Come on now Jono don't upset the harmony. Why can't it always be like this?
Exactly what I was thinking.
So own up who's hacked egg's account?
Look at you all getting along and acknowledging each others valid points and not getting personal
:,)
I'm so proud of you guys
Edit - or perhaps an RBL deal - after all we do have a commodity that has a value... question is - how much have we got...
Tuckman - I also agree with that post too.
We are after all well down the line from the P1 drill that whilst we did find HC was not commercial - ballsed up by the night shift dropping their hip flask down the well - meaning we could not financially afford to continue. At least Potter did the right thing at that juncture, which must’ve been very difficult considering the prize of decades of work was at our fingertips. Live to fight another day...
So any news of a farm in would set the engines to ignition - depending on the terms will set the altitude for cruising...
IceMax - fair post that and suspect the rise and the large sells we saw on Thursday and Friday could be evidence of our funder selling ahead?
The company need to get the cash balance sorted and I’d have also expected more news from the JR by now too - however the uncertainty is priced in which balances the good things the company has going for it in particular production and the POO.
I suspect much of the uncertainty is around negotiations with Lomard and Stena which I imagine will be rather hard fought.
Then factor in our beloved Fred and his circus show means I certainly don’t envy the management team in addressing these hurdles along with trying to run a growing business.
Bully.. what is the threshold for issuing a notification of a short position ?
Regards whether bpc is funded or not for its various work programmes really depends on having a clear picture of its current cash commitments, including possible reconciliations and payments.
As of Feb 16th, the company reported a cash balance of $15m, which included the subscription of £5m ($6.75m) on the draw-down facility (i.e. a debt, accruing interest payment to be paid for out of cash). There was (and is) £10m ($13.75) left for drawing down on the facility.
As of March 24th, the company reported a cash balance of $13m, again which includes the subscription of £5m ($6.75m) made on the draw-down facility (i.e. a debt, accruing interest payment to be paid for out of cash).
There was £10m (£13.75) left for drawing down on the facility.
Of that $13m, the company reported that “work is ongoing to agree the final amounts remaining to be paid with contractors and suppliers arising from the additional unbudgeted costs (including some disputed amounts and some refunds owing), and to finalise a schedule for those payments over the coming months.”
So, the company has £13m, comprising of free cash and debt-backed cash, of which an uncertain amount needs to be committed to post P1 costs.
Additionally, the £3.75 million Put Option remains subject to a similar final reconciliation process on 16 April 2021.
Until these substantial reconciliations have taken place, the company’s cash position in terms of what it can commit to other drilling remains uncertain. Note also, cash is being consumed on daily basis on that part of the cash – $6.75m – which is draw-down. Peter to pay Paul.
Given that 16th April is also the last date for subscription for further amounts of Notes, up to the total undrawn Facility availability of £10 million, or else is the date when a minimum of £8.5 million of Notes in aggregate have been subscribed for by 16 April 2021, then I think we can/should expect an update soon.
Do note, “BPC can elect to pay 100 per cent. of the coupon accrued on the Notes at the relevant Interest Payment Date in the form of BPC ordinary shares, to be issued at a price equivalent to 90 per cent of the volume weighted average price of BPC's shares in the 10 trading days prior to the relevant Interest Payment Date”.
Yes BPC have access to plenty of dilution like UJO, UKOG, nothing at all from the company changing this potential into reality. History is down as complete and utter shambolic fundraising for P1. You can not dress that one up but yes the happy clappers and dreamers will blame something! What happens if another POO collapse what happens if this that or the other. Shame the company cannot deliver in advance of a project rather than leave it to the last minute, and then it goes really wrong and the shareholders suffer. I wonder if they are fully fully funded for Saffron! Ha ha.
Simple fact is and this is not investment advice. The company have a shortfall for their budget. They have not announced anything to say how they are either going to raise the funds or alter their project targets. The market awaits.
I am certainly expecting news next week and no doubt decisions from many will be made. I might even get my symbol banging monkey out if the news is good, 1p will be broken easily if they can actually deliver something positive and not blah blah blah about potential.
LGO-fan: point taken, but there's a difference: we're not dealing with the ex-CERP BoD that purportedly historically failed, partly based on bad luck re PoO collapse and Covid. ..... We're dealing with the BPC BoD that M&A'd an asset (£25m) which can potentially generate a huge ROI (£300m+) if all the ducks line up in a row............... CERP. So I don't think it's pie in the sky. BPC has done it before successfully. CERP did not.
And all this excludes a potential Bahamas farm-in, which may trigger more M&As in the pipeline.
GL
Starchild
Agree....as soon as I saw the mention of buying assets, I thought "uh-oh, equity raise around the corner". Plus haven't they got more than enough assets than they can develop. Why buy another one that will need a future equity raise. LK played the same trick: we heard a story about string of pearls (add door to door salesman grin for dramatic effect), equity raise, was going to be accretive to the sp...blah, blah, blah...value accretion never materialised
Bohemia: I respectfully disagree with your analysis, as you imply BPC is currently insolvent. If this is the case, why would BPC be bothering to acquire new Trinidad assets (point 8 below) now and actually doing due diligence to do so? Is it not like owning a house with no hope of paying the mortgage, and trying to buy a plot of land adjoining the property to grow strawberries with an ROI in 4 years from the local farmer’s market? That would be dumb.
BPC has stated it has MORE than enough funding sources to meet its objectives. You are stating BPC’s very recent financial assertions are untrue and basing your theory on old RNSs re Percy-1 budgets vs spending.
Please refer to the recent RNS presentation page 9 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/03/25213812/bpc-update-presentation-march-21.pdf
All figures below are approximate based on the RNS and $60/b PoO,
1. BPC is making enough revenue to cover all opex and is making c$3m a year free cash pre capex and one-off charges.
2. It has the $1m capex for incremental production programs. Success = 100 bopd = $1m/year free cash (ROI 1 year)
3. It has the $2-3m capex to spud Saffron 2 Trinidad 17 May. Success = 200-300 bopd = $2-3m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)
4. It has the $2-3m capex to spud Suriname and do an EWT in July. Success = 500+ bopd = $2.5m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)
5. It hotly disputes $7m in billing for Percy-1, which could in theory be partly used for point 4 if point 3 fails.
BPC does NOT have the capex, unless there is a Farm-in involving a refund of some Bahamas Percy-1 back-costs (or funding from the Australians) for ….
6. The Saffrons 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 full-field development (2-3 years) 4,000+ bopd $25m+/year free cash per year. Capex needed <$60m. (ROI 2.5 years). It can use RBL/infrastructure lending in a success case per Saffron based on a CPR and fully FUND THE NEXT SAFFRON ONE BY ONE.
7. The infill drilling programs 200 - 400 bopd $3m - $4.5m/year free cash. Capex needed <$6m. (ROI 2 years)
8. New Biz development opportunities 100+ bopd $0.7m/year free cash. Capex needed $2.5m - $3m. (ROI 4 years). Can be partly financed with RBL now.
Bohemia, we appreciate your honesty in recently stating you are shorting BPC. I believe this is a mistake but I could be wrong. It’s not for me to provide you with investment advice. BPC has stated it has MORE than enough funding sources to meet its objectives and even looking to acquire other assets.
BPC is NOT broke. The SP is seriously undervalued. Refer to my previous posts.
All IMHO. DYOR. Have a nice Saturday. GLA
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/