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Starchild
“the SP at current levels is FULLY hedged if Percy-1 is a duster”
I really would look very carefully at the ex-CERP assets, how capital hungry they are and how much capital they have consumed to date, before trying to take that statement to the bank.
Rossannan: Again I can see your point of view and fully respect it. 2nd time in a day which has been rare because of our little skirmishes on and off over the last few weeks.
I fully agree with you it is always good to be wary. However the great thing about ex-CERP assets is BPC will have the capital to make things happen. CERP did not. Even if the management projections are out by 50% for end 2021 and we only generate £6m free cash instead of £12.3m. IMHO the SP, even with a total Percy-1 duster could be more than the 2.5p based on my SP modeling algorithm.
As a BPCer it is only in the last 3 weeks or so I understood the ex-CERP asset potential in full as it was very confusing what the assets were and how much money they could generate. It is also good that these assets are over a spread portfolio any of which can strike big.
I hope in the next few weeks professional analysts home in on this to add credence to my researched opinion that the SP at current levels is FULLY hedged if Percy-1 is a duster. The markets haven't quite worked this out. A bit like owning shares in a retail biz, forgetting it actually owns £100m in property.
Best,
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Limopete
Are you being ironic about Leo Koot’s £500M MCAP prediction or do you believe that the ex-CERP assets can still attain this level of value within Leo Koot’s timescale? To me it was just a bit of catnip thrown to retail investors by a salesman. Never a prediction and hardly even an aspiration in any realistic sense.
rossannan
5p share by 2021 is crap i expect much higher, plus ceprs mc supposed to be £500m from what we cerper's were promised by LK
Regards Limopete
Starchild
Yes, these figures are indeed in BPC presentations. It comes down to the questions that shareholders, particularly on AIM, always have to ask themselves when their BoD presents them with figures like these - do I treat these figures as predictions or as mere aspirations, and am I clear what capital expenditure would be required to make them happen? Experience has made many of us quite wary...
Rossannan: I hear what you say although do not necessarily agree with you. However have no axe to grind with you.
A BoD in a public company would never state wild financial predictions without merit or feasibility. Its Nomad(s) would not let them. Furthermore, a whole different management team now holds the reins with only Leo remaining from CERP.
The points I have made in the last 2 days, in good faith, are based on BPC presentations which i analysed and cross referenced with other research. Not figures I have cooked up or hyped to mislead people, as alleged by our resident share-shorting princess. What reason would I have to do this? to try and talk-up the SP to 3p instead of 2.4p? I don't care if it's 2,3, or 4p as I'm in for the big Percy-1 spud.
good luck,
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Yes rossannan the COS are so low the firm drilling Saffron 1 offered to drill Saffron 2, at their cost, in exchange for a share of production - these are the guys who were there and have seen everything- unlike bulletin board trolls ! Sometimes you can come up with a challenging argument but I think this Koot obsession is affecting your judgement rossannan!
Starchild
“However if seasoned persons who know about shares and financials haven’t figured out the ex-CERP potential by end of 2021 as envisioned by the BoD, is potentially MORE than today’s SP...”
You maybe want to take a closer look at the ex-CERP assets and their histories. Everything has potential in theory, particularly if the oil price re-rates significantly, but I suspect that many of those with CERP experience will put the CoS of what you describe as pretty low (and have already concluded that the BPC BoD swallowed Leo Koot’s rosy scenarios pretty much whole, without asking him any really difficult questions).
We are awaiting on Irene to withdraw the allegations….’ lol, you made a crackpot prediction of profits in 2021’ …and…. ‘You really are a crackpot. I feel sorry for all the newbies who seem to be taken in by you.’
In the meantime, it is important to confirm a key point: the $15m is NOT revenue (or as Brits say, ‘turnover’), it is NET profit prior to costs running the business such as payroll or any capital expenditure. Here’s another way to prove this point.
Refer to slide 21 top left https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf . It states an…’end 2021 [Production] GOAL 2,500 bopd (net)’
1. 2500 x 360 days = 900,000 boe per year starting at the end of 2021.
2. 900,000 x $40 (PoO WTI) = $36,000,000 annual revenue.
3. Cost of extraction is approx. $20/b and the company has stated it will try to improve this.
4. This leaves a net of $18,000,000 minus gov royalties leaving the original $15,000,000 which I referred to in my earlier post this morning and undertook a deep dive yesterday morning.
I am aware and totally accept there are many on this BB who plan to cash out pre-spud. This is there prerogative even though I will not. Their only concern and most of the chatter on this BB appears to be if the SP twitches up and down and don't care what happens in late 2021.
However if seasoned persons who know about shares and financials haven’t figured out the ex-CERP potential by end of 2021 as envisioned by the BoD, is potentially MORE than today’s SP (based on market cap) if Percy-1 is a duster….what hope do ordinary PIs?
Irene to allege I am stupid and/or wilfully attempting to mislead newbies is out of order. I await her apology.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
GarryGraham - there’s definitely an office on IoM, I along with a number of others have attended AGMs there !!
I hope Irene is man enough to apologise to me after the insults (again).
Here is an extract of what I wrote yesterday morning at 04:31am and the evidence. Specifically note 1.c!!!!!!!!!!!....1.c refers to the expenses such as payroll, office, to run the business. I deducted $3m from the $15m. Refer to the evidence. …………………………
‘Please refer to yesterday’s very informative presentation by Eytan here: https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf
Refer to slide 21 and footnote 3 which states……………2021 goal >$15m NET of applicable royalties / fiscal takes.
Cross reference this with the August presentation slides 27 and 29 which show the same $15m goal with a price model of PoO at only $40/b https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf
1. Now let’s make the following assumptions:
(a) CERP is still a stand-alone public company but has 4 billion shares
(b) It made $15m NET profit per year based on $40/b PoO
(c) It’s expenses are $3m (consistent with 2018 accounts https://columbus-erp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Columbus-Energy-Resources-plc-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-2018.pdf )
(d) No debt
(e) To keep it simple: no capital expenditure
Net profit = $12m /£9.3m (exchange rate £1 = £1.30)’………….
[Now look at the whole post which states the SP modelling with EVIDENCE]
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Arry - you could read rossannan's tea leaf carp or, I hesitate to suggest this, wade through latest posts on ADVFN Whoppy thread where someone has upset a poster who was, hitherto long on the spud.
tel: +1 2423625120 - Bahamas Telephone number for BPC. Good luck with getting through to anyone in the Bahamas Petroleum office in the Bahamas as well. The telephone number doesn't even exist. So no one is answering the telephone at the head (virtual ) office and no one is in the Bahamas where they are supposed to be drilling in less than 2 months. And we wonder why the share price is falling by 7% today. Eytan is the commercial director, I suggest an office where any staff member of Bahamas Petroleum Company PLC can be contacted would be a start. What are the majors going to do contact the board of directors through LINKEDIN or through Facebook. As a shareholder with a considerable investment I find it inept at best.
Irene - I'd be happy with £15 million from produced oil from the CERP assets by the end of 2021 - if you think that figure is nailed on it opens up opportunities even for Post Office book risk takers !
Harryoffdock
As I said, the market is realising that it may be a week or two before there is more (P1) news of any significance and in the meantime is not as interested in the former CERP assets as some on this BB think it should be. Come back when the IceMAX is underway - then it really will be game on!
NICO - always delighted to sing the praises of CO2 recovery and the wonderful opportunity that far sighted PRD directors presented to Trinidad and CERP - have my fingers and legs crossed that results will continue to give encouragement to this magnificent venture and that ENHANCED PSC will be available on the Trinity Inniss field on similar terms to that which Koot has been negotiating for years with Trinidad Government body in respect of Goudron!
jimtheknow
Raise the money at this stage, yes, CERP didn’t exactly come with a nest egg, but why spend any time or money on those assets (that they don’t have to) at this stage?
In4, in brief....
If people go back to some of my very first posts about the merger they will see that i thought they will raise all the money they need now i.e. before drill P#1 for CERP and then (probably) sign the farm-in for exactly the reasons you say - if P#1 is a duster the ability to raise money is long gone!!!
Jimtheknow - jury still out but I'm pretty confident about the final verdict on the CERP acquisition - many people like to have a bit of insurance to fall back on with a best figure COS @35%! You've seen how painful it's been on your SP raising the cash for P1 - what odds would you give for BPC to raise same again if it's a duster ?
I think some people read and interpret things in how they think and ignore what is actually said. I wrote (with spelling corrected):
"We are still none the wiser as to what this CERP ******s is all about."
And we aren't, we have not yet seen the fruits of this master stroke. That's not be putting the CERP assets down, i'm watching this space keenly to be educated in it's merits. That's not an unfair observation for someone who has many millions of shares in BPC. The jury is still out, it may now be part of BPC life but the logic behind it is yet to be demonstrated.
Don't forget, if BPC uses PRDs CCS/ EOR technology to improve the ex-CERP well flows we could be making more than loose change from our T & T assets.
Realise most of you excited for the big drill but helps if business as usual is bringing in the dollars to help towards paying the bills and any future drills.
Dear Cosmonova
We note you sell star names and I’m thinking of buying four. https://cosmonova.org/order/
Five questions:
1. Is it possible to select a star which isn’t very bright in the sky and somewhat dim? As for the name, I am leaning towards… ‘We-love-Bahamas-Petroleum-but-IreneKrapp- is-that-naughty-and-extremely-annoying-BPC-share-shorting-derivatives-trader.’
2. Does it cost more if it’s an old collapsed star that has become a black hole?
3. Or does it cost less if it’s a tiny asteroid that wonders around aimlessly serving no purpose?
4. May I name our Star, the Sun, in honour of my lovely wife? I would like to use the pet name I call her by, ‘Dumpling Bunny-kins’.
5. If I named a star ‘Princess Fluffy’ and gave it as a gift to my grandchildren in honour of their new kitten, …………..AND IF a planet around this star was inhabited by aggressive hi-tech aliens who are watching us ….…. wouldn’t it cause offence and likely get them miffed?
We thank you in advance,
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
ps: Irene PROVE your last post using evidence why my ex-CERP asset value from yesterday at 04:30 is wrong.
IreneKrapp - here is your big chance to show the board your own detailed breakdown of CERP accounting taking full account of the FACT that the business is now a bolt on to existing BPC management and administration structure ( remember the CERP BOD were all terminated save Leo Koot ( despite intensive lobbying from rossannan perhaps? ) and the CERP debt was repaid by BPC !) .
If I felt like you about BPC I'd be selling my shares - but unlike rossannan you haven't told us you've bought in - please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't recall you ever claiming to have been a shareholder!
Starchild - A great post!
IMHO the time is coming where all LTH will finally be rewarded for their patience.
GLA!
Great summary Star - should stimulate same old haters!