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Starguru - "The CERP BoD unanimously agreed to the merger despite most of them losing their jobs, knowing BPC would have access to cash to pay for Percy-1 and develop ‘hot’ CERP prospects such as S1, S2, and Suriname. "
So you believe that the CERP BoD voting for the merger in the knowledge they wouldn't be part of the future is a positive? Turkeys voting for Christmas is the phrase that come to mind.
Morning Petrodollar hope you are well. Can you confirm if you are still holding any MATD shares or not? Genuinely interested to know. I have asked a few times but you obviously didn't see my posts.
CORRECTION Zag: We are fully funded for Percy-1, but not for ex-CERP dev....unless Percy-1 is a duster and the drill team realises quickly and spud done under-budget. If this happens we probably have enough for ex-CERP dev
Zag: We are fully funded for Percy-1, but not for ex-CERP dev
Star
Why the need for delayed payments when the funds are in the bank and its all fully funded????
When drafting the drill contract, it appears strange that Stena has until 30/11 to decide on JV options. Why not at the same time as informing BPC of the spud date? I believe it is for the following reasons:
1. It is very likely Stena signed an NDA in May and knew about the possible CERP merger a few days later. Hence the JV option was asset OR shares. Without CERP, while BPC was a one-trick-pony there wouldn’t have been much point to offer both options as they were ostensibly the same. Furthermore, before the Stena announcement on 26/5 BPC’s SP was sub 1.5p (market cap <£30m) for many weeks. (Source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L ) It would have been cheeky to state….. ‘Hey Stena have we got a deal for you! Give us a $10m credit towards the spud which you have already heavily discounted and we will generously offer you 10% of the company worth $4m net today.’ This brings me to the conclusion Stena knew about the merger.
2. The CERP BoD unanimously agreed to the merger despite most of them losing their jobs, knowing BPC would have access to cash to pay for Percy-1 and develop ‘hot’ CERP prospects such as S1, S2, and Suriname.
3. The CERP BoD, BPC BoD and Stena also knew, what we now call ‘imminent news’ would be forthcoming prior to 30/11.
Conclusions:
1. I believe BPC is putting pressure on Stena to make a JV decision prior to the Bizzell 14/11 cut-off date.
2. It is likely that a competent person’s report expected in Dec will be given to Stena under NDA in draft form soon.
3. If Stena decides not to proceed with the JV, nor agrees to delay part-payment for some of its invoices due in Feb/March (with incentives), it is likely the £1.5m Bizzell CLN will be triggered for 60-70m shares. (Refer to RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0l08nw )
4. If though any ‘imminent news’ or ‘watch this space’ news prior to 15/11 is such that BPC can borrow against it prior to when it needs the cash to pay its Stena bills in Feb/March, we will NOT need the CLN in full or in part. Furthermore some of the $5m contingency costs may not materialize anyway unless something really good has been found!
5. Which is why back in May, the BoD and Stena knew everything would come to a climax around now, hence the Stena cut of date to make the JV decision was 30/11/20.
Key takeaways: Lots of news is expected imminently which could positively affect the SP. See my post yesterday morning. Best case is Stena does NOT do a JV and agrees to delayed payments based on this news. Result: no dilution. Next best is a Stena JV at the share level but at a price nearer to 3p+ per share. ($10m/£7.5m @3p = 250m shares). And the worst likely is BPC will take up 50% of the Bizzell CLN @2.5p + interest (approx. 300m shares).
Conviction STRONG BUY leading to Percy-1 spud on 15/12/20. All above IMHO. DYOR. Have a great day.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/st