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Totally incorrect and inaccurate posts by 404.
Cigam has addressed most points and shown as misleading.
Looking at Wondery which cherry picked Morbid back in June 2022 the metrics show that Wondery has regressed even with this show with 7 million weekly downloads.
June 2022 weekly downloads 27.9 million and weekly users 7.1million
March 2024 weekly downloads 20.1 million and weekly users 6.7 million
All significantly down.
404x - how can a purchaser be “saddled” with prior losses?
You do realise these can be carried forward to offset future profits? So it’s actually an advantage until these are used up.
The company has no debt so there’s minimal risk in the balance sheet for any purchaser.
Rifkin this is a much more accurate and better report on what iHeart has released. Very positive on the podcast side of the business.
Frankly 404x you can’t think straight. You’re banging a very empty and tinny drum. Nothing new. Audioboom are actually growing the number of podcasters both independent and in house. As already pointed out they have marketing tools with Show Case and Ad Rip etc which if you ever bother to listen or read up are providing bigger percentage of revenue.
I would think about it from an acquirer point of view. Which would be more cost effective, buying the whole company, or peeling off an individual podcaster they have signed up?
Buying the company means being saddled with an enterprise that made a loss of $19m+ last year, made a loss in 4 out of the 5 last years, and has cumulative losses to date of $54m+.
Alternatively they could poach individual podcaster(s). These are the only real assets the business has (that lack of assets is why reported NAV is only $0.13 per share). Do that and you save tens of millions, are free of any encumbrances, and the hassle of trying to turn around the operating business. Personally I can see why Wondery went for this option.
Advertising marketing is booming again! FUTR is up by 130p in last five days alone.
GLA
IHeartMedia Inc released 1st quarter figures yesterday.
'The company experienced a slight year over year revenue decline of 1.5% which was within the expected range of flat to down 2%'.
This company has several arms, with the podcasting business being a smaller part. Share price fell back. However.
'Podcast revenues continued to grow, with an 18% increase.'
'Political advertising is expected to provide material upside in the second half of the year.'
Just about every report coming out of the USA this year suggests strong podcast business growth.
Thanks PoeBardem for putting the record straight.
All as reported consistently by Stuart Last in the Quarterly Meets. Of course Audioboom is more than a publisher, originator and advertiser. I hope 404x takes note that all his disinformation has been caught out before.
404x
More than just a publisher? Audioboom's ad-tech and monetisation platform underpins a scalable content business that provides commercial services for a premium network of 250 top tier podcasts
https://audioboomplc.com/#:~:text=Audioboom's%20ad%2Dtech%20and%20monetisation,(UK)%2C%20and%20'The
AdRip — a new proprietary ad tech tool
https://audioboom.medium.com/audioboom-launches-adrip-new-ad-tech-tool-for-creators-9a74020560d
Looks like tech software 404? AD-tech that could potentially be licensed, white labeled or acquired by a company interested to buy not build perhaps?
Chairman knows more than the lot of us on this forum. Given his background success -
Is he willing to keep throw good money after bad? Doubtful
Is he buying more and averaging because he thinks he will make money? Likely
DYOR
Hi BBB - my target price is around £12.5 (~£200M market cap) which I think is achievable in time.
I think it's important to remember that FYE21 was the first year that BOOM really started to grow in terms of revenues - with $60M booked during that financial year compared to $20M in FYE20. Then we had FYE22 at $75M before the ad market downturn caused everything to slow down.
So we haven't actually seen how the business can really perform in more favourable market conditions. Personally, I think we will see $80M+ in revenues this year with this continuing to grow in FYE25 as the advertising market begins to recover. As the CFO detailed in the Q1 earnings call, they don't need to increase OPEX to hit higher revenue numbers and therefore we should see a gearing effect on EBITDA as revenues grow.
If the company can get to $100M+ in revenues (in a few years) then we should see a healthy bottom line which will justify a much higher SP.
All IMO and GLA.
You live in the past 404x. Always looking in your reverse mirror.
Very balanced post Cigam. You state the facts. Cavendish have used a multiple of 3 x revenue in their Note. Your research 1.5 to 2 x . Choose whichever Boom is simply undervalued to a huge degree. Most investors who know their onions have put a minimum of GBP10.
It's a fair point re: the earnings and I think these will start to flow through later in the year. They're tracking towards a record year revenue wise with reduced minimum guarantee obligations (which should improve gross margins) and an improving advertising market which should see higher ad spend/pricing.
I do think Adj. EBITDA is the right metric to measure the business as it strips out the share based payments (which are non-cash) and other one-off costs to get a more accurate relfection of performance YOY. The company has no debt so there's no interest costs and depreciation is minimal given they don't own any fixed assets, therefore operating earnings is basically NPBT.
In terms of the business model, the CEO stated that they're much more diversified in terms of key podcasts so there's less risk that shows leaving will have a significant impact on performance (i.e. Morbid). I would realistically put the business in the digital advertising space which, after a quick google, appear to have average price-to-sales ratios between 1.5-2.0x in the US.
As a takeover target, I do think other players would be interested in the company given the high eCPM, ~8000 brands on the platform, and their position as the fourth largest podcast network in the US (by weekly average users). Once the profits start to come back then I wouldn't be surprised if a larger network comes calling. But even if they don't and the company is profitable, the SP will be well north of where it is today.
Fair to say I'm bullish on the outlook for BOOM. IMO it's a well-run company (which is somewhat of a rarity on AIM) with good cashflow management and a strong position in the growing podcast market. Once we start to see improving profits and a few months of positive cash generation, then the SP should move up sustainably from there.
GLA and DYOR.
What about their earnings?
Stitcher and Wondery both sold for revenue multiples because they were both software companies. Both had their own apps and platform. Audioboom no longer has an app. It is not a software company, instead it's just a publisher.
All they have is a collection of individual podcasters, who can leave once their contracts end. Acquisition wise why would you buy the whole company, when you can just poach the individual podcaster? If any of them were worth it that is. That's what Wondery already did.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11989631/Audiobooms-turnover-slumps-true-crime-podcast-network-leaves.html
Market cap - $50m -
Audioboom Revenue 2019 - $22.3M
2023 Revenue: $65M
2024 Contracted: $55M+
2024 expected: $70M+ ??
Market cap - $50m -
Stitcher Revenue 2019 - $72M
Acquired by SirusXM for $325M (2020)
4.5x Revenue
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122789/stitcher-revenue/
https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/13/siriusxm-buys-stitcher-for-325-million-steps-up-its-march-into-podcasts/?
Wondery Revenue 2019 $25M
2020 on track for $40M
Acquired by Amazon $300M
16x 2019 revenues
7.5x 2020 rev
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1133189/revenue-wondery-worldwide/
https://www.tubefilter.com/2020/12/30/amazon-acquires-wondery-podcast/
Audioboom Revenue 2019 - $22.3M
2023 Revenue: $65M
2024 Contracted: $55M+
2024 expected: $70M+ ??
Market cap - $50m -
Anything happening here? all gone quiet after yesterday's small rise in SP?
They have already booked US$7.4 million of future onerous contract losses in the 2023 accounts and reduced minimum guarantees by US$5 million on renewals, as long as no repeat of these then both adjusted and unadjusted profits will return
The total loss before tax for the year was US$16.8 million versus the prior year loss of US$0.4 million, mainly due to the US$7.4 million provision for the future estimated net loss of two onerous contracts and the US$5.1 million loss incurred on the two contracts in 2023.
Was an example. At-least remain balanced. The bottom line is the market dictates the value. Ask yourself why. The figures are mudane at the moment. I know you guys won’t like it and jump at me but thats the bottom line. You can’t say I am like zak who is a serial deramper. Look at my previous posts.
Good point wwkid. And to pluck a figure of £1m profit out of the air what on earth is they about.
With total clarity you have two posters who display the myopic view of AIM. Disregard to all the metrics used by all other stock exchanges to value companies. No wonder no company wants to be here. EBITDA is the internationally recognised measurement of profit. One off cost or income should not be the indicator to the business. Nothing is ever commented upon regarding revenue and market share. Any buyer will be looking at this trend. Any investor should also.
Why isn’t the cash balance -£20m then
Need to focus on statutory profit/loss, this is the key bottom line of what a company is actually making or losing after all costs are taken into account.
Adjusted EBITDA isn't a proper GAAP measurement and excludes a significant number of costs. The adjusted part is highly variable with each company free to have their own definition of 'one off' costs, something to be particularly wary of on aim micro caps.
When rampers here talk about forecasts for this being profitable they mean only adjusted EBITDA, and are being misleading not including that qualifier. Audioboom's actual loss last year was $19.43m.