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Wyn, interesting your perception, tbh the lines are so blurred now, however Next Brand being cooler than Burtons, i guess i wud say that neither are cool, both steady away and perhaps Next a couple of notches up from M & S in terms of Fashion, believe it or not the biggest decision they sometimes debate is whether to stick with one pocket on a shirt or push boat out and go for two !! It's def a safe Brand, people trust the quality, trust they can walk in pub and their mates not take the p#ss out of them, they also trust the prices, the Next customer is very loyal. Not having a go at you but it's very common for people on here to write off the Debs Brands and then to say well i'm not sure what they are or what they represent, actually some of these Brands inc Burtons/DP's do not need re-booting too much to breath new life into them, i can tell you that BH also have really good young teams now to do it.
One quick point re the blurring, Burtons, one of the Girls in our office was doing her B/F's ironing ta while back, he is 24, smart casual (smashual) kind of guy, likes the gym, she ironed 5 Burtons Casual Shirts, he bought them from Asos when they stocked Burtons, she asked him why he liked Burtons, he said he had no clue just liked the shirts and he got them from Asos, point is he didnt have any history with Burtons due to his age and no shops for him to judge, in fact he just thought it was a Asos Brand, as i say lines are so blurred now, just saying don't dismiss it because the Directors def aren't, of course totes agree re make up!
Rag, its not my demographic, but I would see NEXT as not trendy, but cooler than Burtons by about 10 light years but I don't like their logo on their shirts because it says to everyone you can't afford Ralph Lauran
I don't know the other brands to be able to comment on choice, style, and price and therefore value
I know I posted this already but I thinks its all about the cosmetics and the clothes are a side show that maybe Boo can do something with, but I don't think that's why they bought debs. Every single female purchase could have make up added. From lippy to mascara just small items but on their turnover of individual items sent out every day globally, it is imo, likely to be colossal over the coming months and years as an add on to order value and profits.
Wyn, question, where do you seen Next's own buy brand v RH, Mray or Burtons?
Wyn, i totally understand why you say that, however the customer on RH, Mray and Burtons is not the same as slipper, dressing gown, sweater buying BHS Customer, if i'm wrong then of course i'll hold my hand up but if i am wrong then so will BH Management be wrong and they are going to have a absolute sh#t load of mark down in SS22!!! Getting stock in btw esp from China is becoming a massive massive issue, not sure if it's just a rumour (tons in this business!!!) but i been told this morning that they have bought two planes to fly stock in!!! smart move if true!
@wyndrum even with stores those brands were doing around the same revenue as PLT and Boohoo this year. Now they have lost their main route to market does anything they will ever get back to that size? You could believe asos when they say it for topshop as it's a young shopper but how many of Debs shopper now won't get into online shopping? Probs quite a few so you can't take Debs as it was and say "hey this where we will get to"
Also rags points here are based off a huge misunderstanding of boohoo (he thinks PLT is a £500m revenue business). For my point re PLT I said "Also re PLT. It was £500m a few years back. The group then grew by 40% (so assume PLT did it's bit) then that makes it £700m and since then the last update put the group at the same growth again (so assume PLT did it's bit) put it on a run-rate over £1billion" So yeah I said a "few years back" a common saying but then I laid out the maths which puts the starting point as updating for FY21 and then the first trading update 3 months on top. So no I didn't misunderstand where I got the figure from
Rag, I do query your belief in the Debs brand. They have been for the last 30-40 years a cheap (ish) bland brand with neither the cheapest clothes out there nor the best quality, real middle of the road dullness.
The market has changed and you can see that by the way of BHS going first (same store profile basically) and then Debs. PLT is big in the states, debs was getting smaller and smaller in the UK, yet you think this super dull brand image is going to be transformed?
Maybe it will but that will be a testament to BH marketing, not DEB reputation as a must have brand.
Goldenyears , got no issues with you or anyone else on this board, i only green screen one person as the guys a gaslighting troll and has issues.
No dodges whatsoever re PLT t/o i think even the Plumber could work out it will have increased since last published fig, FFS its' A GIVEN !!!! the fact that it was jumped on by the Troll as an angle to say i carved it into rock in the belief that i think this is what it currently is tells you all you need to know , he even said it was years old so wasn't even sure himself, i would ask you same as i said to Jjo do not do the Trolls bidding. All educated guesses as to how much the t/o is and for all shareholders, we await with baited breath, i hope it exceeds the institutions expectations. It's become clear now that this is just one aspect of BH group that they will be looking at, believe it or not some investors despite knowing that numbers were good still sold due to fleagate and as this is all about the share price increasing it's clear that revenue is now just one part of what makes up the BH Group sentiment, how big sentiment on figures is i really don't know anymore, when they have shown the increases that they have and the share price is still wallowing below £3.00 it does make you wonder what BH have to do, i think that when someone sells of back off the back a flea story then it does make you realise how jittery some investors are re BH.
Re Debs and i also include, as my original post mentioned, Burtons and DP's, i totally 10000000000% believe that they will overtake PLT at some point, buying them was CRITICAL, the fashion graveyard is littered with Brands who nailed their colours to the mast and thought they were invincible, it's fashion, the wind will change direction as sure as light follows day, of course not today or even tomorrow but it will change. In the wings are steady Brands with a loyal following, teams are now in place to maximise them, 6 months ago they barely had any stock, now it's incoming, 10's of thousands of pieces, for the core of these Brands they do not work or need test/repeat, which is now becoming unsustainable, factories overseas are turning away the 150pc / 300pc orders, there is no productivity in them and fty margins are shocking, to carry on feeding this for BH/PLT the UK FTy will be critical but at what capacity, i will be very interested to see if it can feed the BH/PLT demand, as for the other Deb Brands demo these are followers not leaders, they do not want or need such speed to market, trends do not change any where nearly as quickly, these will be much much easier to manage, they can buy in more depth, margins should be better, BH/PLT will increasingly face margins issues , to say the least it's becoming increasingly tricky. I might add that this is on the backdrop of many UK Buyers pulling or reducing exposure to Bangladesh, Primark, Tesco's etc, this is going to cause capacity issues in more compliant Countrys, as no one is interested in 200/300pcs.
I’d park in the delusional camp and good luck trying to get rag to fill those numbers in expect a long rant and some stories about Pennywise!
All in all I like to see that we all see growth coming. That is what this share needs to deliver but I do think one of the points earlier is correct. As the business stands today if you bought the Boohoo Plc you would be paying for the prime brands with a small £55m bolt-on attached. If anytime in the future any of the prime brands sneezes then we will all see a very dark day particularly as there is such a high rating to the stock and the consensus growth. But PrettyLittleThing standing still? That will make me smile again later on.
Sorry, I thought it Armageddon as I largely thought I would be ignored now there's plumbers and fleas. You'll have to catch me up. Also apologies Ragtrade if I've said something foul I thought the tone a bit harsh although I sense I'm not who you're aiming at? I'm out of the house during the day so only glancing when a few moments peace, which is rarer than I'd like. To the points at hand, I fully agree brands aren't the bigger portion of the pie today, although that quote is what you were inferring and what I had read originally setting my post. But lets let it slide.
I however disagree with what is perhaps bordering on delusional, negligent or is it just an inability to admit you were incorrect is that PrettyLittleThing is a £500m revenue business. It seems irrational that you're claiming to be correct on a figure that is 20 or so month out of date, which in a business that currently grows at 40% annually is sort of years ago. It is also performance pre the global pandemic which caused one of the largest shifts to shopping online and Boohoo gaining a nice tailwind in the following 12 months. Yet you're claiming PrettyLittleThing just well, stood still? So where did the £500m of growth come from. As I say I think you're trying to pull my leg. Not trying to get too far into the weeds on this but this was the point of the nod to nonsense on my original post. That figure is just the last we were given it is not the latest performance as as I say it's 20 months out of date.
I shouldn't be tempted but I'd just like to see what the answer would be given the full rope-a-dope that is going on now.
FY20: total sales - £1,235billion being Boohoo & Man - £600m, PrettyLittleThing - £516m, NastyGal - £98m. So the small £20m or so left is Karen Millen and Coast.
FY21: total sales - £1,745billion. The split isn't disclosed and two new brands are added (Oasis and Warehouse but they are small in year) how do you see delivery of the additional £500m if PrettyLittleThing did nothing? I shouldn't be sucked in but I'm oddly curious to see what dodge we will see. So let me know how you see the mix. The commentary from the team was the PrettyLittleThing was the star particularly in the USA.
On the Debenhams point, I agree Debenhams wasn't bought solely for make-up. I don't think anyone has said that? But I think what is clear is that the Debenhams clothing brands have never been £1billion revenue businesses collectively so how when their natural department store shopper is not strolling through aisles they will be four times the size they ever were? Maybe you're right but there's no basis to support it. Looking to Q4, you won't notice the effects as I what I hope is now clear and what I am colluding to is that the revenue from the prime businesses should be so large that even if the Debenhams brands add £100m of sales this year then would be nice but not steal the show. Sorry again I've crossed to a second page in my ramblings.
Just so we are all crystal (don't want to lose context)
"Just want to reiterate my opinion on BH Group, obviously this is not the company it was this time last year, this can be quite hard to get your head around if you still see BH / PLT as the main money drivers,"
Rag stating BH/ PLT are not the main money makers. But how credible is this as a statement if he thinks PLT has growth of 0% over the last 20months
Quick poll. Anyone else agree PLT has had a 0% growth rate over the last 20 months when the group has grown by a cumulative c.50-60%?
ladies and gentlemen may I present ragtrade a man who thinks PLT is doing £500m a year!
I really don't think he has any understanding. That figure is from Feb-20 so yeah it's an old number. Since then boohoo has grown 40% to Feb-21 (it's hardly unrealistic to think PLT was aligned with this or more given it's the groups no1 brand in the US where growth was higher!)
And then again you've had another trading update putting the group at the same 40% growth (again unrealistic to think PLT is doing it's fair share?)
And to state rag you did say these brands "were the main money makers" and "it was hard to get your head around". Yeah we know as by next year boohoo and PLT alone will be almost bigger than debenhams ever was
It's upsetting someone with such poor literacy is able to buy shares
Goldenyears , errrr i'm not sure your post caused Armageddon, your only 3 posts in to this so you have a huge amount of catching up to do to u/s the Board and its idiosyncrasies, be rest assured your posts did not start any row, start back this time last year and read through my posts, can't be bothered ?? don't blame you!
All you need to know is that i have posted PLT t/o as circa £500m and it's shot down in flames as being as being way out of date as being a few years old, LoL, someone didn't do their research as this is the last fig published and its up to Feb20 so no not years ago, quelle surprise, all the rest of PLT figs given are total guess work. I take it you have read my post about the DNA of Primark, Arcadia, BH Group, so all that DNA adds up to what?? Debs being bought for make up, don't think so. I have never said that the Debs Brands in short term will be bigger than PLT but in time yes 1000000000%, you will start to see the impact of what they are doing in Q4, i'm def not saying in the short term but longer term yes thats my belief and why i have stayed in, what the Troll doesn't like is a Plumber buying in because he isn't an Accountant, he's bitter that the Plumber buys in for completely different reasons to an Accountant and makes money, this is the same Troll that bigged the shares up massively then sold when fleagate hit, this is the same guy that and i quote from Jjo post "Also re PLT. It was £500m a few years back" errrr as i said circa 500m or to be 100% accurate £516.3m Feb 20 and Goldenyears sums the Troll up. I'm sure we all want the shares to go up, at least Kallu's argument has a basis, the basis of this troll's argument is not that we all want them to go up and believe in BH but for what reason the plumber bought in as he really shouldn't be because it has no clue, LoL.
Some more nonsense this is poised to break the 50 ma on the daily first since early May .
Sorry wanted to add @golden I appreciate your point re PLT and the run rate. I guess here I was second guessing what analysts might have pencilled in vs management expectation so agree my view is bullish
Well someone liked my numbers and analysis! That’s enough for me
@Pmoran nothing to say re rag blasting wildly wrong numbers out there to draw false conclusions? Are numbers now also “valid opinions?” - please try and play fairly for once
I think everyone agrees the Debenhams brands will be grown but that they are somehow now the “main stage” of where this business is going is just not right. Have a listen back to the day boohoo bought Debenhams they are hardly mentioned it was all (JL speaking) let’s get this capital light marketplace going and beauty. He did actually say on the Debenhams day that some brands might get their own websites. Come the update in May this changed to “no they are just going to be on Debenhams” so that gives you a hint that the SKUs of ranges won’t be high enough to be a standalone
Once again happy for all opinions but if you’re opinion is based on numbers that turn out to be completely wrong shouldn’t basic logic say you revisit that opinion?
Best of luck to these brands but if you think boohoo stock is a buy for Debenhams brands but PLT/ boohoo might fail any time in the next 5-10 years you need to be selling (if you re a long term holder) as atm of the £3.4billion to buy this company the vast vast majority of that allocates to those brands and c.£55m allocates to Debenhams incl brands (this number will move when we see some numbers but you’ve only had trading since May so in reality very little)
Understand what you’re buying
Kamani doesn’t strike me as the type to buy a dog if he wasn’t prepared to walk and feed it but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be attempting to win one man and his dog or crufts with it either.
But taking the online revenue split as a proxy of the sales mix then of the £1.9billion 25% of this is own brand clothing. By my calculator that's shy of £500m. This plays against the north of £1.5billion which PrettyLittleThing and Boohoo should post this year. Now I can't see that anyone can claim that Debenhams brands are the main money makers. But if a politician can't turn disagree with bleeding obvious they are in the wrong job.
The yougov article is great and I fully agree it shows the appeal of Debenhams which is great for us as shareholders and as was pointed to it captures a customer's journey (20's, 30's and into the goldenyears. You can see what I did there). But that awareness and demographic was there when Debenhams was posting the £1.9billion and had a tailwind from a store network. Also, and perhaps more pertinent, after each year we need the prime brands to grow at their 20% or we are in very hot water. £1.5billion this year is £1.8billion the year after and £2.2billion the year after that and so on and so on. This ties me to my original point that you'd be asking brands that in the Debenhams heyday were £500m to be 5 times the size in two years time? Well I am happy to disagree.
Anyway sorry for the trouble caused, I did enjoy the insights so anything no matter how small I'll be reading. I just will try not to cause a row next time.
Chops are ready now.
NB: I am happy for someone to amend or adjust the 25% proxy for any better insight.
Sorry all, I hadn't anticipated that my post would cause Armageddon (always think of the joke when I misspell it) but Ragtrade I must admit I have not seen better dodging, weaving or pivoting on a Sunday morning with someone being grilled by Marr. You should take to politics.
My initial thought for posting was that I had read it was stated that these brands were now the main money makers. I think with a bit of rationalisation I think what is now being said is that that isn't quite what was meant but that in fact these Debenhams brands will be the main money makers in 10 years (I'm inferring this from the 23 year old to 33 year old point but please allow if I've not got that quite right). On this point we can agree, the brands bought will grow but as at today or in any near future bigger than the current prime brands then that is no.
Also I must put my hand up and say you were correct to say my £1.5billion Debenhams figure was incorrect. I had taken this from a Boohoo statement but then it became clear that that figure was impacted from lockdowns so you're quite right to pick a period pre the pandemic. It is on the next part where we disagree again however and I must admit danl90 I thought your analysis quite enlightening but I will tweak your conclusions as they are perhaps bullish but again please allow me.
That the Debenhams brands can outgrow prime of course no one has a crystal ball but my point is that mathematically and based on Debenhams history, which is supplemented by store trading, it is impossible or a very vague guess. Here's my take
The analysis regarding PrettyLittleThing I will say that the £500m figure quoted by ragtrade is incorrect and I see where danl90 has pointed out that that figure is actually to the 12 months Feb-20. I then danl90 agree with your 40% uplift for FY21 (although I happen to think PrettyLittleThing is the star performer so this might be conservative but let's accept 40% growth as it is what is present). This does take it to £700m. I then agree regarding the first quarter statement update which again is around the 40% mark. Where I think you have been bullish to roll that into a run-rate. I would flex that to align with guidance, as that was unchanged by the board, but I then think this puts you at around £850m to £950million for the year ending FY22. This is just PrettyLittleThing. At the point PrettyLittleThing posted £500m, Boohoo had posted £600m so you can run similar growth onto Boohoo, although from what I see around something makes me think PrettyLittleThing is the star.
On to the Debenhams point and this is where I though the politician emerged. As I stated I agree I was incorrect to state £1.5billion (but again credit on some good number work danl90) the Debenhams figure is actually £1.9billion sales for UK (£3billion is accounting fluff to justify fees and some overseas - I've sat across from enough). Sorry I'm onto a second page...
Hey Jjoo no issues, it's my insight, i do work with these brands so i'm very hopeful as i see what's in the pipeline, which means of course i have an opinion but none of it means i'm right anyway who cares as long as share keeps heading in right direction!
Fair enough rag. It wasn't my intention, I didn't realise the beef ran that deep. Thought you'd just annoyed each other or whatever.
I've discounted Debenhams completely in my investment thesis. If it surprises great. I just happen to agree with Dan that PLT and boo will continue to be the main drivers of growth going forward.
It's pleasing to hear these debs brands might potentially have more value than I gave them credit for.
sorry the link - https://www.boohooplc.com/sites/boohoo-corp/files/all-documents/result-centre/2020/boohoo-com-plc-annual-report-2020-hyperlink.pdf
The "latest" from the boohoo board is that they no longer do revenue per brand
@jjo please share that that number is for the 12 months ending Feb-20
As I said the group grew 40% since then (assume PLT did it's bit - £500m x 1.4 = £700m - tbh it's probs more as we all know PLT is the one firing on all cylinders in the USA) and then we have had quarterly updates which show growth still at the 40% rate so if that is a run-rate then (£700 x 1.4 = >£1billion)
It's worrying that someone can get figures for such a huge part of the group so wrong. Also nothing to add re the "missing" Debenhams billion?
Thanks for sharing. I for one have found your insight extremely useful and engaging
Jjoo, may i politely suggest if someone else ( who is a troll) says i got numbers wrong then you are doing their bidding, would it not be better if you really do care about figs that you go away DYOR and if any queries then gladly i'd respond.
I'll make it easy for you, PLT t/o i said circa £500m, you said by someone else's bidding this fig was from a few years back,
Latest link below from Boohoo investors Board
https://www.boohooplc.com/brands/prettylittlething
That's all you need to know, happy to converse with you but please do not do someone's dirty work, the guy's got issues.
I'm not doing anyone's bidding, and I have no idea what the beef is about. I really don't care either. Nobody has been rude to me and I wouldn't be bothered if they were. He suggests you got the numbers wrong, so I gave you the choice to correct them if you wanted to.