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Probably having a rest until the big push next week starting Monday hopefully.
Market on snooze today only 30m traded across the 2 exchanges
:))
couldn't resist sol an under performer and nabbed another 1.9 M shares in here. hoping will see some action in the not to distant future. I know there is still relatively Risky but the story is slowly unfolding and the early adopters could well. GLA
A proactive positive approach to that news in an rns will give the MM's a good kick
in the multi bags with the herd arriving and once crossed that magic £50m Market
Cap the REAL II's use as an investment baseline , watch it go then
That would be normal but the sheer size and scale of this asset , some may be very
tempted to make that move earlier and break their own company listed terms and
conditions in the Investment criteria section
Chuditch for me from the 9th September Gov news did the worthless zero to hero
switch , future for a JV/real operator potential $40-$80 Billion (Baron-Shell figs)
Now who in the upper ranks of the sector would not like a slice of that potential
with original shell mapping massive leads also on the other side of the license
When they departed Sunrise the Island was though to have stolen the 56% with a
loan to Timor Gap NOC (on the books to be repaid) of $650m
75% of Chuditch even at fire sale price of $1 a boe is 75% of $600m , $450m net to Boil
base on 3.5 tcf and much higher on Shells mapping over 5 tcf (850mboe) plus upside
Been saying it since the original rto failed if the Island ever gets things moving again
and now we own all of SundaGas , Baron is a minnow with a Major's mapped drilled
and discovered asset, with both 2d and 3d previously showing its big, ghosting from
seabed distortion left only one question
Is it all one huge reservoir (the CH1 drill area) with upside to the South West and if
so how Massive once full license developed
The gate was opened on the 9th, let's see who stampedes through it for a quick mover
advantage and mutually acceptable deal JV or kick us out of the door with a very very
large wad of cash
:))
Market responds to RNA messages passed over the stock exchange rns news wire
or other then relayed over rns
It rarely responds to we have seen in the press or even at 2am this morning the
ASX company x dual listed in London it waits for the copy and paste here had one
like that that affected 2 oilers in London and both finally turned them around at
3pm and we then spiked
Same with video's podcast's etc until they see it cold and hard in a regulatory news
announcement they rarely jump the gun unless it suits (pump and dump to shift
a large overhang)
After 20 years of Gas going nowhere the Island announcement by the government
is a clear message we still want our own industry but this time have a fast track
multiple field approach which looks to have excellent financial metrics compared
to the previously rejected attempt to find a funder
The studies done last time ALL GOOD all possible even the challenging pipeline across
the Timor Trench geology but the Independents hired by both Timor Gap NOC and
Woodside cited the costs to develop Sunrise via Tasi Mane would be unrealistic when
compared to OZ backfill or Shell's FLNG super barge on site
The Island ex gov (the revolutionaries who gained independence) dug their heels in
and basically its our way or the highway rejected Darwin and FLNG once more
Shell , Conoco and others left the area frustrated with large assets Shell where the
operator of both Sunrise and Chuditch and no permitted sales path
The Island on the 9th although not the plan many of us hoped for is still a big step
forwards and should attract a funder for the Island project and Industry heavyweights
to develop fields and feed it, carbon capture deal gov with santos means also have
CLEAN and GREEN in the plan what more do they want lol
The knock on the door should now come quickly, stranded gas long valued at $0.00
now has great value again imo
:))
hfb - i just dont get why theres no sp action.
Market - Move on - nothing to see here?
oh and forgot Santos also just announced they are in the process of a $16 Billion merger
with another regional player
:))
Yes it's all looking good now Shouston m8
Santos have made an agreement with the Island for carbon capture at the depleted Bayu Undan
so bonus points they have somewhere to dump carbon from the Tasi facilities if/when built
Santos have an agreement with NYSE listed ENI to advance carbon capture at Bayu and to look
for new assets in the Timor Sea (wide range Indonesia-Timor-Australian waters)
Shell (forced by law courts) and others have now switched emphasis from Oil to Gas projects
in preparation for the advance of gas and transition to clean Blue and Green Hydrogen and
Ammonia to achieve carbon reduction targets many developed world countries have imposed
The metrics for the new attempt at previously rejected by the industry Tasi Mane look good to
me with a starting point of 3 fields 25-30 tcf followed by whatever new discoveries turn up on
the 11 new offshore licenses in the prolific gas charged Timor Sea
Nothing to hinder progress at last, after 20 years of impasse between the Industry and Island
Now we wait do we get a 2nd License in the Bid round and WHO will come knocking on the
door for All/Majority of Chuditch
End game in progress
:))
Yes, would be nice to be slain by Santos near to Christmas.
GLA
Keep if the excellent work HFB
Known's
Today presidential sign off of the new 2022 Budget should come out soon the money
awarded to Timor Gap and ANPM to pay for Tasi Studies and ? last year 71.4m so
expecting a ramp up to fund developments
1st October bid round ends and budget read in Parliament
original stuff extended with new 2020 2D cubed Seismic available (presents like 3D)
https://info.tgs.com/timor-leste-license-round-2020
Revised timetable of events - awards on 3rd December
http://licensinground.anpm.tl/
so we could have both a JV/Sale of Chuditch and a new license delivered on the
Santa rally sleigh for Christmas lol
:))
just the company to pull it's finger out and promote or the knock on the door
in an rns lol
:))
As of the 9th SeptemberGov release , imo the green light signalled - time to move
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/timor-leste-eyes-new-dawn-for-sunrise-lng/2-1-1063555
https://www.upstreamonline.com/opinion/opinion-petroleum-success-could-raise-spirits-in-timor-leste/2-1-1064171
Market like our PR department will wake up the news from the 9th
The Island has as I have said many times made a statement that will bolster the current bid
round with closes on the 1st October same day as the Parliament budget reading hmm
11 new Timor Leste offshore licenses (prev Aussie or abandoned) all as the regions is expected
to be gas charged include Kelp estimated previously at 14.5 tcf which currently has neither an
issued license or operator
The fact Kelp included in the news on the 9th to produce new studies for Tasi Mane would suggest
they already have a Major or upper tier bidding for that monster discovery and license
BOD have said Sundagas in the new bid round quite a surprise when the pre qualification was to
prove you had over $30m available for quick development
Sundagas (now 100% Baron's) when they floated in Singapore just before the surprise award of
Chuditch license in Nov 2019 a part of the IPO was an included arrangement with a Singapore
bank for a loan facility of up to you got it $30m
Can find no records of that facility ever being tapped, if that facility still exists Baron would appear
to have a wedge of funding waiting in the wings to support another license
Our Chuditch if you want to find older details it is under and Australian license pre the 2018 maritime
boundary agreement the current designator issued with the award in Nov 2019
We could be in for a double windfall a sale/JV free carry on Chuditch with a 2nd License awarded in the
bid round like chuditch as a reward for all the background work done since 2016 in helping Timor Leste
develop its own industry Timor Gap/ANPM and presentations/conferences
Two standout's in the 11 licenses are the one with 14.5 tcf Kelp no way we would be viewed a capable
of fast tracking that one , they will want a big gun on that one, the other is Area P
Area P joins the dots between Sunrise and Chuditch back in the 90's when Chuditch discovered it
was thought ours or perhaps the area in between held the source kitchen that was feeding Sunrise
so that would be a real coop for a new exploration asset
Now we wait for the knock on the door that imo will now come as said the 9th announcement by
the Government the signal the Majors and wider industry where waiting for a declaration that
one way or another they are looking to advance large long stranded gas fields valued at $0.00
but worth probably $200 Billion+ in future production value
GLA , no longer think we will need it , the wheels are rocking and will be rolling soon imo
:))
So what we are waiting for now ? Next year ?
not a lot happening this morning only 13m shares traded across the 2 exchanges
lse leading the way today the aqse still limping lol
:))
lol
wtf auto correct there is ffs
Their is a pre budget statement on the Ministry of Finance website from earlier this year
its 102 pages of blurb so not bothered posting it but this snippet from page 38
a new estimate will be made in August 2021. However, the future petroleum revenue
will be low relative to prior years as the reserves in Bayu-Undan have declined,
even if production is extended.
With low petroleum revenue over the coming years, withdrawals will be financed by
selling the Petroleum Fund’s investments. This will continue at least until inflows
are received from the Greater Sunrise or OTHER significant prospective fields
Last Fridays announcement to try to get the on Island gas facilities built using multiple
fields development Sunrise 8 tcf+C , Chuditch 5 tcf +(shell figs) and Kelp a monster at
up to 14.5 tcf (currently neither a license or an operator - in bid round set) clearly shows
they have after 20 years realised its time to put up (build) or shut up (file 13 project)
and produce by any available means
That statement reported in Upstream to me IS the green light to the industry we will
be open for business , remains to be seen but surely this time the metrics of the 3
fields in the new studies 25-30 TCF will bring forth a FUNDER this time
China BRI already building other infrastructure on the Island and if they like it this time
they do have the deep pockets needed , they pump around 1 trillion dollars per annum
into Belt and Road Initiative projects in 40+ countries across Asia and Africa
Many of those places in return for preferential treatment on future trade deals etc have
had the pot sweetened by China with a new Government Parliament complex built F.O.C
that would have been $250-$300m on normal terms
Expecting things to start moving quickly in the region now a potential sales route is back
on the agenda GLA
:))