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I think following various comments through the day today, just catching up. There is apprehension about what will be announced and the potential impact.
First of all whilst this company is on AIM the MM's can play their games to suit their book we can never be 100% sure what will happen if people are sitting on there hands good news may bring a lot of buying and they could let the breaks off. Some may look at the results and decide even though output, production and even consistent margins are held, they could still try to drop the price. The key point is that 2020 will influence the biggest change in Bushveld Minerals history!
Q4 may well give output in the 850mtV range, average selling price may well be in the range of $24 to 28$ and operational costs may well be very close to $19 per kilo. These are all plus or minus a smidgin! We may be surprised and these numbers could be conservative.
Now we will get news and a full update for the first time on Vanchem - this is where the rabbit may well come out of the hat! Current outputs, current operation costs may be very encouraging.
Next, what will Bushveld aim to achieve in 2020 with Bushveld Vamteco and Bushveld Vanchem. This information I really believe will lift the morale of all investors.
Next Bushveld Energy - well we know that they have started works at East London, and we should get a full update on the targets for this plant - well I really would expect it this time. Then Enerox GmbH, this may be included but I would expect a full and detailed separate RNS on this. But that will be highly influential on the next 3 to 12 months on projects and potential.
Bushveld Mokopane - well we may learn more, but the DFS is not expected till Q3, but there may be a few statements which will give a good idea for there plans for the future.
Lastly, surely something on the JSE listing? I really expect news on this in Q1. We may see it mentioned in the Q4 update, but this will again be a full RNS, and I fully expect it to be accompanied with some other significant announcement which will be helpful to SA!
Whatever we want, there will be no dividend announced until at least the full 2019 accounts are released. But to be fair I think we are highly unlikely to see one this year! Think 2022 and you are more likely to be on the mark unless we see a significant upside in Vanadium prices.
Those are my thoughts and I expect an RNS either tomorrow morning or next Thursday with Q4. But we will see. I am sure many will expand on these thoughts. But 2020 is looking very strong indeed!
Cheers RK
I'd be surprised if BMN are/have been stockpiling to hedge the low V price...perhaps a bit to cover any power outages...they're more likely servicing their customers (old and new) as needed and supplying Vanchem to keep the kiln fed there and perhaps will start to up stocks as and when 2nd kiln is ready to be bought on stream and likewise when the electrolyte plant is ready to be fed...income is income right now and we still need a few more jigsaw pieces to fall into place. As has been said, the shipping records have been healthy. Now if they have been stockpiling then Q4 production output and sales should both be great but income levels not so good simply due to the lower V price. Hopefully some fixed price contracts should help support the bottom line.
If news re Avalon/RedT is due latest Friday to avoid delisting, what's the likelyhood they will push out Q4 Update at the same time or will they keep the two separate and wait until 31 Jan. Either way, I suspect we will get some news on something before the month closes out...
Does anyone know if we have an contractual volumes? If so, do we know what they are?
Alfa - maybe for 2020 and beyond, but I read your and bassguy's posts as relating to 4Q19 production not future production. It depends on what was happening to current Vanchem production from the1 kiln. As we only just completed the Vanchem deal then I'd have thought our immediate priority here would be to meet any ongoing Vanchem sales agreements and keep the cash rolling in while we work on planning, financing and implementing the necessary kiln and other plant upgrades needed to expand production here....so probably too late for any 4Q19 stockpile from here either.
Squirty - well those long term commitments were perhaps struck before we bought Vanchem so there is all their production to now factor in, and this may be more able to be flexibly handled.
totally agree and I assume most deliverys would be contractual anyway...
I thought the shipping logs provided by Paludina made it pretty clear:
a) 4Q Vametco production continued to be very healthy after setting a new monthly production record in 3Q.
b) we were shipping most/all of production to the US not stockpiling it.
I understand the argument about stockpiling for higher prices to arrive and for 2020 East London electrolyte developments. However we also need to remember that the business is expanding on multiple fronts with increasing financial commitments, so revenue and cash flow remain critical. We will have contractual obligations (both for vanadium shipment and financial) and I'm not sure we are in such a strong position that we can afford to sit back and stockpile.
I for one am happy to wait for them to sell their stock for the profit it is worth, not simply hand that profit to traders who are stockpiling themselves. It works just the same as with shares, sell High.
Will this be a Vametco result or include any revenue coming from Vanchem?
We are rather overdue one RK !
Maybe a query how the mkt will see q4; if we have great output but not so much sold there may be a muted response as some would question why we did not sell so much and twist it. However it may well be time the mkt starts to view the business for its true potential. That said a money spider just popped out from my sleeve and ran across my palm whilst typing this so...
Better than a crow:)
Each day we are getting closer to this update and given Q3 results and the strength of the operation at Vametco, I think we should be very excited about the potential results coming as well as the news on other aspects of Bushveld Minerals.
I think we about to go into a purple patch or on here a blue run!
Anyone agree?