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Alpha has been wrong about most things relating to Bushveld. An academic with a very entrenched position regarding VRFB’s. He still doesn’t get it. The Lights are about to go out Son. Stop telling us all how many shares you have. There are billions in play so your 15 millions are worth very little. Get a grip.
People are kidding themselves if they think a potential rise to $35-$40 is going to take 4 weeks. More like 4 months.
I don’t mean anything, except that V prices are turning green across the board. Happy to have a bet with anyone that US will tick up alongside China. Is this not positive?
Suspect that Craig looks at some of these posts the same way that Pep looks at Football Manager experts (apologies for esoteric analogy).
Reality is we can all speculate what the intentions are, but nobody knows for sure. We'll find out soon enough though, but IMO the bottom's not in until most investors believe BMN are going bust!
'Why else do you think SPR want the deal done before end of May'
_____________-
SPR are keeping BMN afloat and in return acquiring 100% of Vanchem instead of 50%, at a knockdown price.
That day corresponds with the next payment to BMN from SPR, the $5m, so if the deal is rejected or falls through before May 31st the $5m will be withheld and BMN will have to find a new lender or halt operations.
None of these entities are second guessing or pretending to predict short term price movements in V.
"Craig was parachuted in to rescue BMN" - Was he? Yes, but what does rescue look like? Does he have the skills/contacts to make the best possible deals? Both of the deals have been badly constructed and the former executed. SPR's actions/delays have led to this and frightened Acacia away, unless they're part of the scam by withholding money. But as I said I accept its all but done bar the token voting imo. The move to acquire the whole of Vanchem started last year.
It would be enlightening to know what the debt, other than Orion's, was back then and what it is now. We seem no further forwards after both these deals and a fundraise.
I recently said (before I looked at this properly), that this deal would improve BMN's chances of survival, but it does not. You would expect him to make a deal that gets rid of all remaining debt bar Orion's, which is ironic considering most of that was spent on Vanchem, but also ensure there is enough money to pay the $7M due next month. A clean slate for what has been given in exchange. That is a rescue, but this is more like the asset strip I described last year.
Next up Vametco because of Orion debt, future capex requirements and the current low V price meaning it is loss making. You need to run a credit facility in order to survive until it rises, which everyone believes will happen. Might as well close Vanchem down today if he cant make that deal. Ask the Chinese, technically SPR still dont own anything, but the sands are running too fast for alternatives, apparently.
I think the bottom line is if China V prices increase, so will eventually US prices, they are surely linked intrinsically.
Why else do you think SPR want the deal done before end of May, I bet they have a better handle on global V prices than us retail folk relying on Asian Metals!! ;-)
If that's what you means Lamps?
Craig's spoken about this twice now. The strategy they set out in December relied on the price to at least average what was being seen in Oct/Nov, which he considered conservative, but it has fallen between 10% and 17% across their markets since and that in conjunction with all the messing around from SPR and Acacia has led them to this position.
It appears you are yeah.
In 2023 March was when the highs were seen but by May V had sunk considerably. The 360 day prices are what needs to be compared as that's when Craig started, so you'll see from that site that V was low when Craig started mid 2023 and now all prices are have fallen considerably year on year (360 day column).
Also asianmetals isn't very reliable for the US and it's that price that's sunk the most since Craig took office.
Am I missing something?
https://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html
Craig was parachuted in to rescue BMN before it was too late but has been dealt far too many blows that are beyond any person's control since.
He started with V just about high enough to enact a credible strategy and raise the necessary funding but ever since it has crashed. On top of the pressure that the falling V price will have caused SPR then failed to provide the $12.5m when it was needed causing an immediate cash crisis long before it otherwise would have come about and significantly affecting production and capex strategy through q1. Acacia then goes on to pull its $3.5m funding (likely because of the knock on effects described above) and we get to where we are with none of the plan being able to be enacted and another cash crisis.
Considering the position BMN were in when he took on his role (cash $3.7m, debt $94.4m, V $30/kgV) the deal with SPR and completion of Orion CLN funding and strategy were sound as far as i'm concerned - the difficulties since, one on top of the other, would be hard for any person to overcome.
The writing is on the wall with regards to Vanchem. Vametco I think is a sound wee business with demand for its product, albeit the steel sector. Need to hear from Craig on this but it was the more profitable plant with lower running costs. The weakness here is that expansion is limited and very expensive. The age of the plant means continued sustaining capex. FM said one of the first upgades was to be a new ballmill. ($20M?) That can be deferred for so long but will need money spent on it in the future. And the barren dam. Thats not paid for yet, is it?
CC is a great Operations man but not a deal-maker or strategist. SPR by contrast certainly are. Never got us out of the frying pan, or if he did, we are in the fire now. Maybe SPR will give him a job running Vanchem next year. Meanwhile the rest of us need a miracle and quick.
Lamps56 - In that case, were doomed, all hope is lost, run for the hills, I would touch BMN with a barge poll, etc.
There we go, I feel better already (just dont mention my heavily underwater shares)!
Not sure he has the numbers or alternatives
https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/56780-bushveld-minority-to-vote-against-firms-bailout-asset-sale/
Oh come on Marc. Why should we let facts and rigorous analysis get in the way of stress relieving screams of frustration. We are all doomed!
I was sceptical of this whole new deal, but then I read Oakblokes report on it. I think he puts it all into perspective very well.
Also, CC said they have a good relationship with Orion. So I think if the first payment in June can’t be met a compromise I am sure will be negotiated. It’s in Orion’s interests to do so.
Despite my earlier comments, I think we need to continue to trust in what CC is doing. All along he has said along the lines of BMN needs to get smaller to be future ready, so if we need to dispose of Vanchem in order to achieve that then so be it. There doesn’t seem to be any other option, although if he were able to convey that to shareholders on a call I think that would be prudent.
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/a-bird-in-the-bushveldbmn
@ hxulcolrdoh.
I cannot help but agree.
The galling thing is that three of our largest shareholders appear to have conspired to put BMN into this position.
Orion - 5.4%. Renogotiated their lending facility so that first payment was due end of June.
SPR - 14.5%. One of their "investors" was not forthcoming with the funds expected in December and then January. SPR did provide an interest free loan, but only after an 11 day (i think) closure of Vanchem. Costing BMN more money.
Acacia - 4.5%. They have not handed over the agreed $3.5M and BMN are now seeking legal action. Why????
HOW can 3 of our largest holders let BMN get into this position? Apparently, they are all on our side. The only one who may get some credibility would be Orion, because of the renegotiated loan. But what will happen after June when they do not get their payment?
In my opinion, BMN will go bust. And what three entities do you think will be picking up the pieces?
And if SPR are fully supportive of all things BMN, why do they not provide another interest free loan, until the sale of Vanchem - 50% and Mokopane gets ratified?
I hope i'm wrong, but something does not stack up.
Or put it another way, the long term debt (which BMN hasn't a mission of paying back) is going to be twice as hard to pay back.
I would be surprised if Orion are agreeble. Why would they kiss goodbye to half the assets on the balance sheet at the same time as their chances of default doubled.
On the SPR front going forward BMN gets maybe (subject to a deal being agreed/approved) $9.5m for VanChem ( $11.1m having been recieved and which disappeared like a fart in a hurricane) - 'the initial consideration'
Plus 'Eventually' over 3 years after a deal is concluded BMN will get $15m -> $20m as a deferred consideration' in quarterly installments.
Which does raise the question - if the plug was pulled post a SPR deal close what entity would in receipt of the deferred consideration payments ?
BMN really does look like toast.
Prices are historically highly correlated across regions so it should. Traders make it flow around where they find margins. You can also sketch BMN's SP to Chinese Vanadium price to see it.
From OEC re China - "In February 2024, Ferro-vanadium were exported mostly to South Korea ($2.9M), Japan ($2.09M), Netherlands ($1.25M), Malaysia ($426k), and Australia ($123k), and were imported mostly from Austria ($792k), Japan ($33.8k), and South Africa ($14.8k"
Can't see China having much impact on pricing in USA & Europe, Bushveld's main markets.
Historically, China is the key influence on global V prices. So even though BMN doesn't sell to China, that's the price to watch.
Pretty sure China 'controls' global V prices Lindon. So in theory if China V prices tick up, the rest of the world should surely follow, or do I have that wrong...? Call me out if so.
It’s only a MOU. They are a dime a dozen! BMN haven't exported to the China for the last 4--5 years, that includes well before their economic decline . Even before China imposed a 13.5% import tax - BMN exports to China only ran to around 2.5%. After that exports to that market stopped completely. That market has never had any material impact on BMN’s sp. The only market V price that is going to help BMN is the USA. The European Steel market has just released a further downgrade expectation for 2024- 25.
Lower demand for iron and steel products means less vanadium is produced from the iron production from ore. All their vanadium is a by product of that process. They still have their VFRB projects and areospace alloys to produce which may require imports of vanadium due to shortage of raw material locally ie s lag. Any sustained imports will start to increase the V price.
I mentioned it Cindercone, and yes good point you make, if they are shutting down production and importing instead, that cant be due to lack of demand. So what on earth would cause the shutdown of x 6 of their producers? Sounds government mandated - maybe environmental reasons...?