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Paul Haywood doesn't come across as having authority in his TV interviews, and he's made a number of errors, e.g. in units, rates, or which field he's talking about, which I wouldn't expect a CEO to make. He doesn't fill me with confidence. However he does have some good advisers and technical guys & the consultants they use I know are good,time will tell.
Count- yes he’s made a good job of mucking up the sentiment for sure and like you say it’s hard to change that. I’m surprised they are still ramping the company in their most recent interviews, yet did not answer many of the questions that need to be answered. Personally I won’t be averaging down, will stick to my initial invest at 13p and go from there.
All I know is 17p high was driven by positive sentiment not facts. It's going to take time and very good news flows to get this up above that 17p. The complete screw up by PH has damaged the markets confidence and that's going g to take time to fix. Only figures and facts can move this up or down.
MA1BRW - Looks like you have a sizeable holding and you have managed to buy in at 2.5p below the II's who paid 11p each for £12 millions worth - so I would say on balance you should be sitting pretty. I know the SP has drifted down and a lot of us are looking at a paper loss - it only becomes a "live" issue if you actually need to sell. If you can hold for the next 6-12 months things will look different IMHO but as always DYOR - I tend to filter out the rabid rampers and de-rampers.
Count- so you’re saying this share will always stay in the 14-15p range?
I think people invested at those levels can still make money myself included of this company gets its acts together, but it will be very hard for them to turn the market sentiment around. After all we had the spike to 17p on the back of s very woolly update, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon unless there is a dramatic change in output levels.
However what we do know is this company can’t afford any mistakes or bad results now, otherwise it will be back down to 3-4p range.
The 12 million in the banks is not a saving grace like some people keep going on about. Remember these wells cost around £2m each to build so there is only enough for around 6 weeks assuming they continue to store the oil rather than sell. We really need a RNS showing increased production volumes, sales happening and cash coming in as a result. Finally the price of crude had droppped so we can do with done updated forecasts.
No I think your figures are roughly correct. On my own rather conservative calculations the SP currently should be around the 10p-11p level. However there have been "issues" that have driven sentiment in the market against the company and the SP has suffered. There is a well documented work program of well work-overs and a deep gas well drill coming up in the next 6-12 months. A production update on the oil and a contract to sell gas (with infrastructure in place) will see the SP rapidly heading north. I think in the past Paul Haywood (and the BOD) were over-keen to release "news" and now the reverse seems to be happening it's a waiting game ...................................
Sea7...I do agree with all you say and I can see money being made here long term for all holders, I'm out of it now and the remaining money allocated elsewhere. If I had another nice lump to invest I would buy again at this sp for sure. If anyone invested here at around 14, 15p like I did then get more in now and get your avarage down as low as poss and you should do ok, as for people hoping to multi bag, I don't think so unless you got in early. IMO
are you not mixing dollars and pounds? why a p e at all- that implies recurring revenue- how do you know how much is in there?does anyone? lots of variables obviously eg price of oil . but a good effort
I'd like some clarification on the current share price if we run a simple scenario.
Am I missing something below?
Oil @ $55 cash for Bloe $25 per barrel We know 16aZ produces 295+ bopd We know highly likely 38Z to produce 295+ bopd 590 bopd off 2 wells. Monthly production is therefore - 590 x 30 = 17,700 Yearly production is 17,700 x 12 = 212,400 approx Cash 212,400 x $25 = 5,310,000 Value @ 8x multiple 42,000,000 Cash in bank from new share placing - 12,000,000 reduced to say 7,000,000. 49,000,000 Value 394,000,000 shares gives a value of 12.5p per share
So given we are only currently producing 295 bopd that we know the current share price of 6-7p stands to reason
However, if we get an update with 16aZ producing 500bopd & 38Z hits 200 bopd we have big SP changes ahead.
If we end up with 1000 bopd before year end (by some miracle) the figures above mean the SP goes towards 20p
If I have missed something please call me out and explain
Whilst I agree with you that resource stock are risky, bloe is drilling into known deposits and into wells that have produced before. This increases the COS considerably and sets the company apart from the wildcatters.
Even in a recession, a stock that is funded, with a good story and is delivering on its objectives, will have a solid base to its operations and will be one of the stocks that out performs.
From M31 - I do not see but assume he is here spreading a heady mix of doom and gloom mongering. He is NOT invested here so when he say “we” that does not include him. Just to put the record straight he is one of the principle members of the knocking crew. Nothing good comes out of his keyboard. I filter him 100%.