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Just topped up but there arent many shares available as only partially filled my order.
Not guaranteed Bill, that could be the one we have just purchased…
haha, ditto
I am, DropD, though not as much as John Story!
Thanks Rob I haven't heard that interview!!
Older&Wiser - my model allows for ~$96 / ton payments to MHW (contract to deliver 40k tons washed met coal per month throughout 2022), a few $ / ton for use of infrastructure (I think that was the clever deal negotiated, rather than buying it outright), offtake agreement at discount to spot price - I believe it was around $260-270 / ton when spot was $300. That leaves around $60 / ton contribution to SG&A and taxes, which I think is generous, to give ~$100 / ton profit. So conservative throughout and still gives huge profit, cash and upside from where BEN is now, let alone when capacity increases. Hope you're invested! GLA
Bill, we have an option to hire another from MHWM.
This was mentioned in the previous Sunday Roast interview.
Bill, we are buying one. I'd imagine the third (potential) HWM is already owned by MHW so acquisition not really an issue.
Rob I thought that the HWMs were hard to come by.Do they really have an option to acquire another?
Things have changed a lot since the last interview I heard with AW, where he was talking about a steady pace of scaling up, saying first shipment being start to mid Feb and second HWM would be most likely contracted by Q2 22.
There is now a planned shipment without the railway being complete and a purchase of a second HWM. What I am most interested in is the 'why' behind each of those things. It points to AW being pressed by Integrity and possibly a new party to hurry up with more coal and sooner..but I'd rather hear it all direct from AW.
The RNS news I'd anticipate within the next 2-3 weeks will be: first payment received (next week) + latest test results on second wall + operational update on wash plant and railway. Wild cards...1 or 2 more off take agreements (Integrity taking more + a new one), 1 more acquisition.
One would assume we are, after spending $2.5m on the hwm, we also still have the option of taking the third hwm from MHWM in April....
2022 has the potential of being a great year for BEN.
Then we have the added possibility of dividends later this year.
Also, I'm wondering if they are now working on a larger offtake agreement that will incorporate some or all of the second HWM production, as well, a bit later this quarter. That would be a blockbuster announcement.
You are correct The Company did say this but with met coal prices still rising at present so at present it is no major issue? Perhaps that will be another RNS coming our way re this soon!!
Nice to see you on board iceman!
Did I miss an RNS by last year end indicating that the rest of the initial planned 40k/mo coal was to be subject to an offtake deal? This was flagged, timeline-wise, in the October first offtake rns. If not, why not?
Secondly, DropD, you need to adjust your figures for corporate taxes on profits payable. So about 23%. Not sure if the company's stated PM of $100/t includes group SG&A also.
Bigkahuna...i think very soon this will pop and move towards 55/60p. In the next 5 weeks there is a huge amount of transformative news due that really should underpin the price at a much higher price.....
Check out the PE Ratio for coal sector below.
https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
DD, very conservative figures imo.
We know we are selling at around $260 on our off take agreement .
All in costs are just under $100
Cash cow
DropD these forecasts look way too pedestrian to me, it is likely BEN will blow these out of the water, but at least they demonstrate how undervalued this little Company is.
Meanwhile HighVolB continues to increase in price.
https://www.argusmedia.com/metals-platform/price/assessment/metallurgical-coal-high-vol-b-fob-hampton-roads-PA00128862100
Also don't forget 30% of BEN's coal is HighVolA which is now $400 a tonne !!
This re p/e is interesting, shared from 'the other place' https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
ave p/e 12.53 for coal (Jan22 figs). If we apply that to BEN's initial target production of 40k tons per month, with profit per ton conservatively $100, 350m shares, target sp comes out at £1.29.
$100 per ton profit was a conservative fig used before xmas. met coal price has risen since then, and any increase achieved adds straight to bottom line profit and should feed through to sp, pushing it closer to £1.60 at current prices.
Last week's RNS adds purchase of 2nd HWM, hopefully up and running in spring, doubling production, and all of above figures.
That's without anything else e.g. royalty deals with neighbours, acquisitions of neighbours with infrastructure ('BEN2', 'BEN3') etc ..
Obviously we need to be in stable, regular production at target rates, with infrastructure established and working optimally, and payments-in flowing, for re-rate towards above. I have full confidence that AW will deliver this - he hasn't put a foot wrong so far on this rapid journey.
Exciting weeks and months ahead. GLA