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In simple terms I think Jo has to build on work to date (obviously). But unless wishes to see SP drift down - meaning dilution be greater than should be etc when next placing comes - issue periodic uodates. Clearly be some areas where cant - but if provides no information at all - then price will drop.
20p target, agreed SW. look at today, spot the pattern - mark it down early panic a few sellers/stops, then buy it back up into the close - classic market maker accumulation
New CEO is great news, his CV looks strong, and fits the main requirements for this project - specialised in financing.
The main asset, Parys Mountain, is of great quality, and substially proven - there is little risk in the resource not being economically viable. There is no question in my mind whatsoever that it is viable at current prices, and it can be optimised further to be robust across an even greater range of prices, with some relatively simple adjustments. There is enough information out there now to be very confident of that. The risk was that the Board simply weren't doing anything, and that I would suggest should substantially diminish with this appointment.
Going forwards, the expectation has to be clear - the project has to be progressed to a feasibility study. No more talk of yellow mobile plant turning up next week, it won't happen. This is a serious capital investment to bring to production. So its absolutely essential that proper feasibility studies occur - and I would suggest if it is done properly, it will involve substantial drilling, met testwork, environmental studies, etc - and cost around £4-6m.
There is simply no way of "skipping" this step, just because its difficult and involves putting more capital at risk. Yes, a lot of money has been spent on Parys Mountain over the past 30 years, but it needs a bit more to realise its potential. Ultimately, if you don't believe in the potential of the project, then get out. The investment now to create real value is a small fraction of that put into the original project - the majority of spending has been incurred already. But that doesn't mean the rest can be done for nothing.
To prove this as a modern mining project, update all the relevant information and allow it to reach its potential, AYM will have to raise money and that may involve significant dilution - particularly as the asset is currently massively undervalued against NPV. Ideally you'd increase the company value before undertaking a raise, but if there is no pathway forwards, then it'll be hard for the market to recognise the value. But it should be possible to market this project a bit better, maybe re-run the PEA, and prove its value is well in excess of current estimates.
Ultimately, for the project to be taken seriously, you have to set about doing things properly. I have no doubt the new CEO will recognise this and ensure appropriate investments are made in taking the project forwards. Bringing in a JV partner or cornerstone investor in the form of an established mining company would be a shrewd move to prove this projects potential to the market. This project is most attractive to such a partner now, at low share prices - they could get a substantial stake for peanuts.
When that occurs, expect significant returns. Based on doubling the shares on issue to pay for PFS, then a 10p target price. If it can be done with less dilution, eg. by selling the iron ore assets - value is anywhere up to 20p.
Yes, MS, I also hope that the BOD will be more communicative in the future than they have been in the past.
I have no doubt that the new CEO will be reading these discussions as part of his research. On that assumption I have this message for him:
Jo, those of us who have held shares in AYM for years have held on because we have understood the perennial stance of the company: that mining operations must await favourable market conditions. Now that those very conditions (I refer of course to metal prices) are propitious, in the words of The Who: Let's See Action. Furthermore, Jo, keeping us (by 'us' I mean the owners of the company) informed takes little effort and its contrary - i.e., keeping shareholders in the dark - causes bad feeling. We wish you every success; welcome aboard, Jo.
Not a bad end to the week. Onwards and upwards from here providing the BOD keeps us more updated than in the past.
Or perhaps also to trigger some stop losses
early tree shake to panic those scared of their own shadow, now positive on the day, expect strength into the close and positive weekend press.