The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I did a piece of design and supply work for MOJ procurement a few years back, one of the worst pieces of work I ever took on.
Was brought in early days for consultation with the product end users to design said product.
Product prototypes were produced and trialled and well received, product went to MOJ assurance board, all good, product went for legal assurance all good then at the last hour we were told product would have to go out for tender, then we were disqualified for bidding because we had had internal MOJ input into our design that put us at an advantage to other bidders, we walked and the product has still not been delivered to the frontline 3 years on.
The saving grace here is that the Government are desperate for these tests so hopefully Avacta and other suppliers will not be paused around by Boris, Dido and Handjob.
I disagree there CaptainStanley.
"All he has to do is get them certified" - well the govt have a hand in that process in both the US and UK. Look at what the FDA did when they added the result logging via a tech based solution to their criteria for FDA approval. BBI are now promoting themselves as the people to help with that. Now my point here is that no, we are unlikely to be held to government timelines in terms of a contract but we are definitely held to their timelines in terms of what is required for regulatory approval for the mass markets.
Plus, I wouldn't rule out the possibility the govt have some kind of first refusal on purchasing the tests subject to clinical validation results. They are making big noises about the rapid LFT saliva antigen test being the key to unlocking the country and "saving the economy". Do you really think if this test is as good as we think, the govt will just pass up the chance to take every single one we can make and put it in the hands of private consumers and business? I think not.
OK so we accept Al is stuck on UK gov timeline for arguments sake, what about the US, Europe and rest of the world who is stopping Al there. Al is being shown up by other companies who seem to bring out tests in months.
Not sure how many more times this needs to be said but AVCT have done their bit but timing of announcements are now out of their hands. Yes Al’s earlier comments on potential timings do appear with hindsight over optimistic and rather naive in that sense but given our clueless Gov had little idea of a testing plan at that stage that was hardly his fault. There is still no other home based LFT so a little more patience still required before all will be revealed
O&W nobody can deny AS’s initial timelines have been missed and he was overly enthusiastic with how quickly this process could be carried out. However, I would say some are being a little harsh on him and pessimistic about the implications of this on pushing ahead with the various therapeutics pieces in the pipeline.
Avct have always been focused on the oncology space predominantly but COViD has presented an opportunity to showcase what affimers are capable of. Avct did their piece with the affimers early on. What has become very apparent is once govts get involved and start moving goalposts things get very very messy. Then you add to that the car crash of some early tests which were recalled, PR suicide for AVCT to roll anything out sub standard.
Manufacturing the test on scales that probably weren’t envisaged in the early days, reliance on third parties, changing regulatory frameworks and guidelines.....
I don’t think AVCT are to blame here for more than a bit of over optimism. To me, it certainly doesn’t show ineptitude from AS as some may suggest. You have a virus that nobody understands, an inept government and the pressures of your only alternative being national lockdowns again pressuring ridiculous dreams of moonshot.
Now in the therapeutics side. Avct understand cancer, have a business plan and aren’t playing pied piper to the govts ever changing stance. They have £40m under their belt to scale up the division and backiNg from large pharmas. I can’t see the same mistakes happening there. And imo the only mistake was saying “a few weeks” or “very soon” too much.
No doubt he has learned his lesson but when the vagueries stop, there will be people bashing the door down shouting “we need updates and timelines”.....we’ll when he tried to give them to you it didn’t work. This is a very different field to many businesses, it takes time and ultimately will have an impact real peoples lives - not something to hurry and get wrong!
FWIW, I have significantly de-risked my investment in Avct now. Missed time lines are a no-no for me, as it suggests management over enthusiasm at best, or lack of proper controls to get the job done. It definitely isn't because of lack of funds.
Still a great long term story for the therapeutics side, but once again, I see the growing possibility of missed time lines there too.
Spot on Sheltie
Yes, there will be little doubt that Al will be kicking himself for getting far too excited about what might happen with the test kit back in April and May. The timescales are much longer than even he imagined, leaving quite a few people feeling a bit let down; understandably. I believe it will happen next month and have always maintained that here. He was very naive to be so explicit with timings that were never going to be achievable. BUT - that’s not uncommon on AIM where many CEO’s have zero previous experience of that role in a listed company. Yes, it was naive but he will have learned a lesson from it! Next month is vital, as November will see people selling out of Avacta. I do believe personally that October will put smiles back on investor’s faces here though. ATB and things will all come good here in a few more weeks. . . .
Not sure that's a fair comment re placing monies. The LFA will improve Avactas balance sheet significantly and prove the Affimer Platform.
“As we set out in the use of proceeds at the recent fund raising, we have now expanded our product development team with the appointment of an experienced in-vitro diagnostic Product Development Manager and we are expanding the protein production facilities in order to meet the expected demand for Affimer proteins the coronavirus tests and future diagnostic tests in the pipeline."
In terms of delay... All we know for sure is...
1: Avacta haven't failed because if this were the case market would have been informed.
2: It's currently out of Avactas hands and we are waiting on third parties.
Sbrace06 - you're not alone. I have a limp and a heavy nose bleed for daring to lower my dear lady wife's expectations of an Argos multi gym anytime soon. All I can say is AL's prolonged state of purdah had better end soon - Friday at the latest - or I for one won't be quite so balls deep. Take heart Sbrace06....the last time I threatened to sell 1/3 of my investment a positive RNS landed the following day
The die is cast....
Indy
Must say I’ve become a bit disillusioned with al and avacta. Timeframes re BAMs and lfd seem to have slipped and the placing a while back seems to have been for the cancer trials which is fair enough but would have thought the spit stick would have
surfaced by now.
His presentations have promised much but as an investor I feel I’ve missed out on the sng multibag, gdr resurgence, odx recovery and tils too.
I got into avacta back in April and waited and waited and whilst I know they are onto a good thing a lot has happened, and passed since.