The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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8000m over 18 holes in the drill campaign, up to 500m depth. So drill Fwiji first, before moving onto Muswema and Cheyeza. Those drilling holes of over 500m will take longer to drill, then sent to the lab for results. Easily after the July 7th deadline before results will be known. So leaving AA hanging out to dry, while we wait for the feedback? Clearly AA should have given Nick $3m last year when EA was signed. To drill where they feel they can find those missing sulphides, with assistance from David Wood. Sometimes I wonder wether big companies have too many bean counters, and not enough boots on the ground? Better for us, we'll be able to keep AA hanging, while others watch on, and maybe approach Rothschilds with offers? Yes Tricky great investors call, believe some on here didn't bother listening to the call. They seem to be more interested in asking questions here, than doing some research. I'm working full time, yet can still make time for research on weekends. Lazy f*****s, do some research or sell up,or work on the tan?
I'm not positive the extra drilling is linked to the deal,but negotiations are definitely under way,and some/most mining exploration CEOs would have taken the first offer. Copper is flying and Zambia looks like it's going to become "fashionable" again. Not looking bad at all !
Nvs, Remy and even Vasillios all sounded upbeat. I know that would be the brief before the call but still.... 'No more equity raises'......ever!! Now that was music to my ears after suffering many many years of placings, raises etc
All in all, a very optimistic CC and plenty to look forward to, we really are on the home straight now.
Indeed Fulmar. That said we need to hit with a drill pre auction. Hopefully they are throwing it down deep in the right spots.
If we're going for that then we don't want an AA offer just yet, let's get the drill bits in first and start getting results. Or indeed hope that AA are indeed waiting for more confirmation during these drills.
Voisey Bay didn't have this macro economic background ,but this prediction is scary https://www.mining.com/new-bull-chart-for-30000-copper-price-porphyries-nearly-mined-out/
I'd love a voisey bay.... If only huh
Longfell an offer was made for Fwiji but fell short of what Arcm were wanting. Nick clearly stated in the 2nd call that, then there was dialogue between the two parties. Now we drill Fwiji to depths of up to 500m, coincidence no! Obviously AA have said show us those sulphides and we'll pay you what your asking. My enthusiasm is realism, no offence taken. Realistically AA are absolutely desperate for Fwiji (25m tonnes of copper), source David Wood. If they can buy this one deposit, they've probably done the best deal in a long time. Any other deposits are dependent on the negotiations, between AA and Rothschilds and Arcm. I'm hoping that they just want Fwiji, freeing money we can use to develop the other 13 deposits? We're now in the final furlong of the Derby and the EA is ticking. Any drilling will be revealed post July 7th, now kicks in Voisey Bay scenario.
I like your enthusiasm Kully but personally I think an offer for fwiji did not meet NvS expectations, hence the new drilling plans. This could have been advised by Rothschild whereby if results prove up some great sulphides at depth then it will then become a possible bidding war as the EA will be at an end. This drilling for me is as exciting as any possible deal with AA.
Yes I'd considered the KCB asset drill costs also. As you say could come from any full sale or payment into the topco from AA.
I'm not sure if they've done anything really on the new asset yet, obv it's a less strategic asset ATM. I'm also aware in Botswana you need to apply for a licence before you can sink a drill. That's takes a little while I believe (not fully sure of lead time but weeks/months) so that'll be a pre-requisite. As to how much detail you need (depths, locations etc) I'm not sure how detailed that application has to be so they may need to do some AEM survey or ground exploration before they can apply.
In any event, it's all a wait and see game. Not long now. KCB can ce in due course lol.
ATB. Have a good weekend all
Good comments there F79. Think regarding to not drilling Fwiji in February call, one can assume that maybe AA were happy with the drill results. Before a bean counter decided to ask for more meat on the bones, rather than taking David Woods knowledge as gospel. Clearly things have altered slightly since February, licenses separated, drilling reorganisation, and the main point from both investors calls were the fact that Nick and Remy remained very bullish overall. No sense of hiding any unknowns or dropping something late Friday evening. Every thing looks like a deal with Fwiji, wether any other deals is pure speculation. As for me, I think Fwiji is a done deal,just ironing out the eventual payment. CE plant is definitely going to happen next year and Muswema and Lumbeta are the next deposits to be proved up? Wether AA are going to JV other deposits or take the Fwiji only option is open for discussion with Nick? With the Copper price high, can assume that Remy pushed Nick into getting CE into production. Remy is looking more like a CEO than finance director right now. CE would pave the way for any future drilling on any new deposit and in Botswana. Current Zamsort drilling could be maintained by the hefty payment from Fwiji? A Jorc of Muswema and Lumbeta in few years time, with permits in place for production and we get the multi $bn offers.
Thanks f79 some interesting thoughts there and you could have a point re CE.
Have a good weekend.
Only the obvious known spot the differences, namely ;
> the raising event after saying cashed up (but as we know that was about the KCB prospect) and,
> the potential interpretation in some shift in drill targets for this season.
Otherwise they were progressive changes in updates following further work. Which as we know we're the things like..
> Casa updates on new deal,
> The activity around the CE testwork and scoping study i.e. confirming capex forecast closer to 10million dollars from initial 5-10mill plus the the uplift in FCF using current copper prices
> New driller
> Confirming licence reorg is around the potential deal with AA
Etc etc
I was trying to see if I could crack any morse code around the AA deal. I did cling onto a little of the terminology used where NvS has said ARCM went back with 'certain priorities that we need' and wondered if by the term priorities he may have meant the CE production so we can get self funding from our own production.
I do have a feeling that this will be part of any deal e.g perhaps capex and ensuring that it remains a 'priority' overall even though it's perhaps not value adding to AA. I sense it's going too be more JV based and obv ARCM would really benefit from that FCF to fund their part of the exploration.
That said I've as much idea on that as anyone and speculating really as he could equally have meant priorities in terms of shareholder value but I didn't get that vibe. Albeit we know he is definitely aiming to maximise shareholder returns from the deal as he has already said this.
Anyway lots of words there :)
Atb
F79 did you find anything else interesting comparing the 2.?
Interesting I'm just listening to the Feb CC before I relisten to the recent one.
In Feb NvS says about the AA deal 'suffice to say aby deal we do will have to provide significant value from where we sit today'.
When you look at the price on 15th Feb we were pretty much bang on where we sit today.
Nothing new but just worth revisiting that comment and as I looked I thought I'd share :)
ATB gla