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I said this a while ago. 1/3 of profit for Dividend, 1/3 for new machines & 1/3 for war chest in case of sudden drop in price. At the moment all the money seems to be going into machines when there is no certainty of the final price. Not like a real commodity that has natural supply & demand.
Trig do you know the rules on trading updates - can they do a Q4 trading update ahead of full year results? I too hope they can as I would hate to have to wait until april with FY results to get next insight!
Idiot...thanks for informative post as always, was getting bit fed up of reading some recent posts ! If you don’t believe in BTC long term then wrong share for some investors. I agree would like monthly updates in these uncertain times but that being said should see a Q4 update very early in the new year
Tapman any national crypto is likely to be a centralised affair - like Libra. Either based on a single fiat or basket of fiat currencies. I agree it's very likely we will see such crypto. But as a centralised crypto it will be subject to the same controls, inflation and debasement as the underlying fiat. The very reasons that sets BTC apart... imho!
Hi Id441,
I agree with much of what you say and thank you for raising this with the management.
The other fly in the ointment is the possibility/probability of one of the major national governments (China/US/ India) introducing their own crypto currencies - which could seriously undermine any HODLinf strategy.
Of course, with a global crypto market caps around $200 billion, there is clearly a lot of 'grey' money about which is unlikely to find its way into state run cryptos but it does represent a challenge - which is perhaps why Facebook's proposed Libra is getting such a hard time from the US vested interests.
my final comment was truncated... just wanted to say I will write to management in coming days
I am sure everyone here is massively disappointed by the current share price. I believe that is firstly driven by falling BTC price coupled with rising difficulty and hash rate over recent months. Inevitably at such times relatively small selling with few buyers causes continual drift and decline in the shareprice.
With the huge uncertainty over prices for BTC in 2020 which are particularly driven by the halving (expected May 2020) as well as changes to difficulty and hashrate it is clearly very difficult for the market and us (investors) to form views on correct valuation.
The company is currently in the midst of a massive ramp up in mining through increased machines in production. But they are (sadly imho) only providing quarterly updates on mining income (in dollars) without providing numbers of coins mined information.
Personally I would like to see monthly figures for both numbers of machines and coins as well as value together with some comparative information on a like for like basis and/or per machine. All that information is certain to be known as management info and would not require much work to release as RNS.
No doubt management will be considering their next options that probably include some or all:
1. Ordering more machines - stated intention.
2. Dividend policy: perhaps a maiden 0.5p announced with Dec full year results (April)?
3. Whether to "HODL" part of the mined coins in order to benefit from capital gain in coming months/years? Currently has not been an option due to high capex. But in future should become an option rather than selling our mined coins at low prices.
My suggestions. Basing as a very rough guesstimation that mining costs (elec + others) are currently say 50% of value of coins earned. And for sheer simplicity we use a mining value of USD2m per month (hopefully actual number much higher)
From that $2m:
Costs $1m leaves say $1m as gross profit (gp) - before depreciation
1. Allocate up to 50% of gp to new machines order monthly (or further in advance to get best prices)
2. 0.5p divi only requires £1.5m annual basis = approx $165k monthly i.e. say 15-20% of gp before depreciation
3. I would be quite happy for management to have a policy to HODL a proportion of mined coins and give them flexibility over the proportion according to market conditions. Using figures above keep 15-30% as HODL coins?
4. and balance held as fiat cash (USD/GBP)
Why HODL? If we dont have confidence in BTC reaching levels higher than current price (especially post-halving) then we should probably give up! Its not difficult to imagine the price reaching a new high over the next year or two (let alone the wilder forecasts). By which time holding in the treasury of ARB of a few hundred BTC could make a massive difference to shareholder value. At that time consideration could be given to options - including continuing to hold or selling some/all to return funds as special dividend etc.
thoughts? comments? I will wri