Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"The wolf of wall street", is a good one too. Maybe even more apt in this context? (not that I am competitive)
New lows being found now.
It's a con. I suggest you watch the film called "Gold" starring Matthew McConaughey to gain a more realistic perspective of this thinly veiled fraud which has been going on for years.
Break even can only be calculated once they have gone to 24/7 and got the volume up. They have also said that automation will reduce costs.
PQE: will depend on B/E point and associated bopd levels. To me it's an "engineer's pipe-dream", but am no expert. People get lost sometimes in the technology w/o looking at the business case. If it does come through, than great. If not, than not a massive issue to AOGL (they got bigger ones)
AOGL: I think much better prospect subject to JV coming through. Drilling plan next year is exciting. New BOD that seems to know what they are doing. They have had a massive clean-up operation on their hands, and now need the time to show what they really can do. I believe in this BOD; but time will tell. Again, it's all about the numbers they will produce
It’s priced to fail, much like AOGL.
No point in selling now which is why was no sell off.
I was going to top up below .20, now absolutely no chance am I throwing more in.
and judging by the SP drop yesterday, the RNS PQE released didn't inspire investors too much (though once has to be careful with daily SP movements, still... 0.18 CAD. Painful to watch)
We won’t know w/o the numbers. No numbers = no business case.
BTW saw a tweet by one S Lundy on PQE, posted 17 hours ago: zero likes, zero retweets. tells you something
I only keep an eye on PQE due to the AOGL shares and warrants, but I think that they probably haven't stuck out a B/E Bopd figure due to the oil price volatility and just the fact that their cost base is probably pretty variable, or at leat has been.
I'm not saying their transparency couldn't improve, but I would imagine that would be the answer you would get if you asked them.
Certainly a ball park idea would help, I agree with you.
Maybe they dare not tell the b/e number.
They have a very expensive team assembled, salaries alone will be a fair old whack.
Unfortunately b/e is not around the corner which means tapping the market which in turn means the share price is going nowhere.
AOGL selling PQE could have been a viable option in March, but it’s not now IMO.
Not saying PQE will not come good, but if it does it ages away.
too many typos to bother correcting - I hate autocorrect even more than placings!
You make a very fair point. The question really is what level of bopd this an operation with this technology need to hit for it to be profitable. It certainly isn’t going to be 80, 150 or even 300 bopd. Once we can the answer to that, we will know where we stand. Until then it’s belief/conviction/gut feeling...all of which are crucial (certainly not knocking that), but numbers to back it all up are key. If these numbers where out there, a big O&G would have bought them already and we would all be praising Ors. And you Ors, would be living of your divi’s. I wish it to you, but we are not quite there yet.
"deeply invested I hear he is in PQE"
Agreed I have a few quid in but am quite happy with the situation - timeline frustration for sure - have a very low base cost so happy to sit tight. No rush to exit, at all, long term investment. I am here because I expect them to execute their business plan and more.
Keep in mind that the BIG investment money (their main business plan in terms of revenue generation) has nothing to do with CAPEX or OPEX - once technology is properly proven - commercially, then the returns will arrive. If you believe they have cracked it then the investment returns will be huge.
Of course each to their own, dyor
Is he? There is sense in it, for sure. But everything stands or falls with numbers: at 150bopd over 12 hours you may assume 300bopd over 24 hours. But from there to 1000bopd is a far cry. These numbers matter as they can help us explain what is the upper limit of production. We need to know and map that vs the bopd at which point this technology hits B/E; a number Ors admitted he doesn’t even know. Surprised given how deeply invested I hear he is in PQE.
Hard to tell where this heavy capex and opex beast is heading, other than to the ever hungry placing monster
Helpful is spot on....
Maybe they should have added to the RNS. You can't assume everyone knows this.
LGO - may have an answer on that in next couple of days
People can't have it both ways: they can't complain that they are kept in the dark and then complain that they should have waited till they had good news.
Today is good news, the plant is producing on a regular basis. They now need to step it up to 24/7: which was never going to be possible without training up staff. Then they need to step up the throughput. You can't train staff on a process plant, if you are watching to see if it will fail at any moment: so you would keep it at a steady state, that you know it can cope with whilst you train up your people. The reason I know this is that I used to run process plants for Shell a long time ago. Getting the plants to stage where you are happy to run them flat out 24/7 is not as straightforward as people might think. Not least you have all the safety issues. There will be HSE officers whose agreement is required at each step.
DYOR
you may have a point. So what is the level of BOPD for this operation to hit B/E?
well the market seems to like it - first up day for while!
Agree Ors, but I think they’ve been pestered for some numbers by PI’s.
in fairness - automation of the plant was only completed on 25/11 (per RNS) - so just 2 weeks ago, so in the scheme of things (and previous delays) they probably see this as good progress (otherwise why bother announcing actual bopd?) - imo they should have only announced the 17/12 conference call today - then in-between concentrate on upping production - then when decent figures arrive announce on 17/12. Hey ho, we are where we are.....
Lets see.
Scraping the barrel there as always helpful.
For how much money and time they’ve had it’s more than disappointing!
The important bit is that it works. Volume is important but secondary. A fair chunk of the shifts they are doing will be taken up with start up and shut down procedures. They will also be inspecting known issues to ensure that they are not re-occurring. Once it is working 24/7 then you lose the start up and shut down times.
It will be interesting to see if they can keep working during bad weather: it can get nasty up there during winter.
It’s not 300 Ors. They don’t have people trained to get it 24hrs.
It’s 150bopd and that’s only 2 days, you can’t call that continuous.
That’s what you call a shyte update! Wonder is keya and the boys will be retweeting it.