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This is my understanding of the recent rescue deal. It was based on pre-bankruptcy valuation and required injection of fresh equity capital into the company and to avoid drawing on the GBP 100 million additional loan capacity that the company has (still available and not used). Stroll agreed to buy 76 million of new shares at GBP 2.25 paid to the company. Furthermore, it was agreed that his consortium of investors led by Lawrence Stroll will pay 30p per share for new issue of 1.216 billion shares. The new investors will therefore control almost 74% of voting rights for a total investment of GBP 536 million, all paid to the company (not buying another shareholder). The break-even price for the new investors is effectively 48p (weighted average).
It's reasonable to assume that the company is worth more than 48p today as it has received GBP 536 million in cash which it didn't have before the deal and it has cash rich investors who committed during COVID19 crisis.
The fair value of this business is subjective given the uncertain outlook for most businesses today. It's possible that there will be new rounds of financing but I highly doubt that new investors will dilute themselves below 48p price and would probably look to commit more capital themselves - although when you own 74% of any business the dilution will mostly come at your expense.
If indeed 4 new shares are issued for every existing 1 share then the total shares outstanding will be 1.52 billion.
Following the same logic, if the market cap. is 570 million as it was before the share issues, the share price should be 37p.
I'm not aware of what issues are planned or under way and only using info available on LSE and Aston investor portal.
so ur expecting this to be valued at 972.8m come Monday? 194.56m x 5
the 30p price has everything do with it given 4 shares for every 1 in issue are being given at 30p.
short term this is toast.
To clarify:
30 March 2020: Aston Martin issues 76 million shares at price of 0.009, bringing the total voting shares to 304 million.
The share price on 30th March was approx. 250p and the market cap. was approx. 570 million.
Assuming full dilution effects and no change in market cap, the share price should be 187p.
The price of 64p has nothing to do with dilution so please stop providing incorrect information.
obviously bookrunners like jp morgan and other market participants who can go short will be dumping as we speak.
i shouldnt ever read lse amount of shares in issue....its wrong.
errr the nil paid rights are tradable but new shares not in issue till 20th which is when i expect a dump.
Current market cap. is GBP 190 million. Total number of voting shares outstanding is 304 million as of 1st April 2020 following the exercise of the rights issue. The shares issued following rights on 30th March that were exercised were not locked up and were available for trading right away on 31st March.
Current market cap. is GBP 190 million. Total number of voting shares outstanding is 304 million as of 1st April 2020 following the exercise of the rights issue. The shares issued following rights on 30th March that were exercised were not locked up and were available for trading right away on 31st March.
ops that should say 4.735 billion shares.
can you not see going from 947 million to 4.735 billion shares will create a sales overhang as sellers dump?
no there is no lock in period. shareholders get their extra shares Monday.
why surprised at 30p?
u have 947 million shares @ 63p value £626m
come Monday 5 times the shares 947*5 = 4735 shares value £2.98bn if it stays the same price which is doubtful.
I think it's fair to say that in this market, there are very few sustainable brands and none of them are automakers :) The brand will survive and probably has a better liquidity position than most businesses out there today. Profitability might be elusive for years to come but Tesla was never profitable either. Investor expectations are badly managed at Aston with the current crop of equity investors losing 96% since the IPO - the value of the underlying net assets is greater than the book value of equity so there is room to significantly bounce back. For comparison, Tesla is trading at 20x its book value of equity. If automakers go bust, I would much rather hold Aston shares as at least it has the assets to liquidate whereas Tesla has a pipe dream valuation that does not have assets to back it up and all based on expectations.
Aston in this market is just not a sustainable brand, cheyna well who knows there...unfortunately timing is everything. The Stoll guy seems like a utter **** to me. He agreed price ...then renegotiated the price and takes up ceo role for like zero pence. I think he’s a opportunist. Who does not gives a ..... about F1... that is not gonna get aston back to profitability. They put electric cars on hold.....eeeeehhhh ..look at the market ..you need to be on the game with electric cars like yesterday. The whole rights issue is a complete a utter mess ...who knew what was going on ? Any idiot would not have instantly revalued the company at 1.3 billion...idiotic.
Is there not a lock in period?
I'd be very surprised to see this at 30p!
its more a case of professional investors will be dumping/shorting this and pushing this to the 30p level.
then when the new shareholders get their shares Monday realise they can make a profit, a lot will dump.
then as an overhang situation i.e more sellers than buyers marketmakers's will mark it down more.
I guess it's just simply too much debt here with no major recovery in sight at present!
“It is anticipated that the NHS may need several thousand of these shields and we are delighted to be playing our part in protecting frontline NHS staff during this challenging time,” he added.
ASTON MARTIN has been part of a project working with engineers at the Manufacturing Technology Centre in Coventry to develop a protective shield for frontline NHS staff involved in the intubation procedure for Covid-19 patients needing to be on a ventilator.
Of course the company is old and will NOT go out of existence. Its the current crop of equity shareholders that will lose everything.
The company is 80 years old. They will be bought out long before they go under. Trust me
Whilst AML are burning thro cash at an alarming rate I see them surviving their short term liquidity problems given the arrival of LS and what he brings to the franchise. My real concern is what is happening to their Market . Many reasonably affluent will have recently suffered and may well delay purchases. For the unaffected Uber rich the AML brand, doesn’t provide the panache they seek, in volume. Feel recovery here will take a little longer than some envisage. GLA.
This share will start making a good recovery as soon as lockdown is over,it’s a joke all this bashing here and talk of a 30p share price,wait till the new suv starts rolling off the production lines,and new 007 film comes out,free advertising.Then the daddy of all branding,F1 livery for all of motorsport to be seen,not to mention the fashion and clothing,AkA mister Lawrence stroll,fashion entrepreneur.This share price now is a massive chance to load up now,in my honest opinion