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Appreciate you won't be responding anyway Honewood, but when I said that you point about saying a SOA which dilutes shareholders by 20% will cause the sp to drop by 20% was nonsense, what I meant by that is it isn't a case of a simple formula. There would be dilution in the scenario suggested but also there would be signs of progress in such as a new scheme would be being proposed, perhaps with more approval or at least less disapproval from the FCA. There would be details of potential timelines and some sort of future roadmap for the business, including presumably an announcement on the Secured lending aspect. There would have been consultation before any new SOA is announced as we have already seen some signs of this and there might be other details within the same announcement so it isn't an exact science. This is why each share value post the announcement (even at 20% dilution in that example) may be worth significantly more than 100% of the share pre the announcement. Ultimately if anyone holding didn't consider this to be the case then what would be the point of us holding for no potential gain? As I have said before though, each to their own obviously.
Hi all, I apologise, I misread the dates. After a potential scheme was announced on 21 Dec, the price was around 8p. When the terms of the arrangement were announced the share price traded in this range (5.8-6.85p) for a month (not two!) before it started to rise again. But my point still stands, a scheme that is announced that will mean a hit to shareholders will bring the price down, considering the last scheme didn’t hit shareholders at all.
A dilution of 20% will bring the share price down by 20%. This is common sense though, so people may disagree with my statement but a dilution of any percentage will equate to the value of that share being worth that x percent less.
Franky - remember though, Amigo said for the majority of the first scheme they were in communication with the FCA. This came out in court that Amigo had little communication with the FCA - or at least not as much as we all thought!
Comments like that from Yuri though, are totally unnecessary. It is why I don’t often comment on this board as there is too much bickering and insult throwing.
Anyway, I have said my piece, so any comments from now won’t be responded to by me.
Yuri sounds even worse than Acaciatan. its not even a sentence so I'll try and talk your language. Ends of the nob that rubbish the talk difference make none. Sad is life of yours that you board coming on to offer nothing to peoples but comments of your sh*t. Karma not good.
its an interesting debate honewood but I think the "FCA have said what they don't want and not what they do" moan by our lawyer in the sanction hearing, along with RNS about "discussions with the FCA" post the Scheme failure suggests that actually there is now communication over what is required. My half-way house with you is that the FCA will not be advising on how to restructure but more on what they think would be adequate to put in the pot and what their minimum requirement is, not how Amigo arrives at that. This would likely make the most sense and bear out both views.
There is plenty of fun and games for traders and investors alike where Amigo is concerned. Though there is another sub-set category I like to call "moron" that's individuals or one specifically who wants to buy at 6.xp and sell at 7.xp wow. thats ambition for you!:-:::::::::::::-)
There are no serious players left, only retail punters with their naivety, and logic this group is driven by is well beyond fundamentals, therefore it can be go in any way without any justifiable reasons .. or sitting sticky-idle held by illusions ..
As with all of us it is your call. I don't in truth reminder the share price being as range bound as you say for a couple of months - a few weeks maybe, but again it is history and neither here nor there.
Others just disagree with this point I think - "the dilution may well be more than 20% which would of course be a short term concern and it will dampen the price in the short term by at least 20%."
That is total nonsense at best for the points others have noted.
Hi Franky, I totally agree - the FCA should help, but they are not obligated to and it is not their policy to do so either. Although Miles said they should intervene on the supply side to ensure better customer protection, this doesn’t apply to the current situation. For the benefit of the claimants and the company I hope I am wrong, but I do think it highly unlikely they will be contributing heavily to the scheme.
I am not bothered about buying back in if the price shoots up to 12-13p even 20p, should the scheme be right, I would be a long term holder purely for the dividends. So any price fluctuations would be irrelevant over the long term and re-entry at higher price is not an issue. But as you stated, the dilution may well be more than 20% which would of course be a short term concern and it will dampen the price in the short term by at least 20%. This is the whole premise of my post - that short term drop would be the point I would get back in IF the scheme is right. If the price drops, it is because people will be selling, so I could pick up exactly the same amount of shares as I currently have or more easily in a short period. Even if it is slightly less, the change re-entry price should make it worth it.
Advice from Warren Buffett: whether talking about stocks or socks, I prefer to buy quality at a reduced price. If I can de-risk from potential insolvency and possibly buy at a reduced price I will do. But if the right scheme is put forward, in my opinion even 20p would be a reduced price.
I am not offering advice to anyone, I am just being open and honest as I have always been. By making my position clear and my reasoning for that position clear, it is just to be open and honest. I do not plan to sell my whole holding, just a large majority of it. But even now, I am only considering this approach.
Honewood - You may be right about the FCA not negotiating but you may very well be wrong. Sheldon Miles explicitly stated that the FCA needs to intervene more on the supply side and work with lenders to have the sector work better. A dilution of only 10-20% I'd be staggered. Its bound to be significantly more IMO but a sanctioned SOA and relending will make that a short-term consideration. We also don't know what the mechanics of a restructure will look like so understand with the uncertainty derisking makes entire sense. I'm personally holding as I believe with a whiff of SOA2 and noise that there is a "small window of opportunity to save the business" or words to that effect, you'll see 12-13p fairly quickly. All the dynamics that saw the price spike to 30p are still there and its in the FCA and Business interest to see the MCAP up for raising equity, so I won't be selling as I expect news by end of July when we report our numbers. It would be foolish to believe that this is over just yet.