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CBS
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Non-ferrous/LME-Nickel#Trading+day+summary
LME has a one day lag as well.
https://rk-commodity.blogspot.com/p/lme-inventory-data-report.html
For the figure for today.
TDT
Cheers TDT - remind me where you get your numbers for this? I'm using Kitco and that's showing 97,036 at the moment; think Kitco has a one day lag.
thanks,
CBS
CBS
After such a large draw down from the LME yesterday the figure today is a paltry 42 tonnes. That's disappointing.
TDT
Hi Garf
I don't disagree with any of that. Tom Bowens was brought on board for a reason. Somebody with contacts, a reputation and experience in selling in Russia to Russians would be invaluable I'd have thought.
$1B to bring 40,000 tonnes of nickel to the market is about par for the course. Horizonte raised $650m for Araguaia 1&2 and these two project , combined, will produce 28,000 tonnes. Amur's headline figure might look daunting but its what you get for that investment that matters.
TDT
TDT,
In the recent Q and A RY said that location was an issue and that due to sanctions and the subsequent process any investor was likely to be Russian. If you then add-in where we are in the process ie TEO and mine plan still to be completed it would be difficult for a foreign company to invest. The risk would simply be to high. If you are Russian, understand mining and have sufficient cash the risks become that bit lower. Remember to get this off the ground you need circa $1b.
Garf
MD
Quite possibly. Its difficult to know what Putin's game is. When you look at Russia, its land mass (largest country in the world by a long margin), its population (144m) yet a GDP less than that of New York City you can't help wonder why its such an abject failure. Constantly playing the ultra nationalist card is what seems to keep him in power and I guess he'll keep on playing it for as long as it works. As for sanctions! I don't think he gives a fig that. The majority of his people live in poverty. They are, after all, used to it.
cannyladdy
Both Highland and Trans-Siberian were in production when they were sold. The hard miles had been done. Amur still has it all to do. Having said that Tom Bowen's Malmyzh copper/gold project wasn't in production when sold so I guess projects sell at every stage in the production cycle. Interesting that all three project were acquired by Russian companies.
Blackrhino1
Are you this much fun at parties!
TDT
Cash contracts on the LME reached a $90 a ton premium....https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-18/nickel-resumes-rally-as-metals-await-more-china-stimulus.
I started looking again last year in the back of the Inv Chron article in March entitled Russian miners ae being hoovered up. I then watched the shares and my investment fall as Amur wasn't mentioned. HIghland Gold went in 2020, then Trans-Siberian in 2021. Amur next? Is it close enough to an end game to attract a predator?
As has been proved many times, the price of nickel has no direct correlation with the price of AMC shares, in fact often had an inverse relationship. Until we get some leadership here and real news about how to get it out of the ground that relationship will never exist.
TDT he’ll keep playing hard ball ‘til he gets some sanctions eased won’t he
MD
HI CBS
I can't say this for sure but the possible negative impact from Chinese New Year holiday (only 5 days or so and yearly) and the Winter Olympics (2 weeks in total and a one off) will be more than off-set by Indonesia considering banning the export of nickel ore and nickel intermediates. With the Philippines considering following Indonesia's example it seems the downside pressure from any softening in demand from China will be absorbed by tightening supply from the principal producers. All guesswork on my part but it makes sense in my world.
If it all kicks off in Ukraine all bets are off.
TDT
hi TDT
yes I've been reading much the same, largely assumptions made about Chinese lunar New Year and the olympics where the idea is that factory production will be stopped for both events. If stocks continue to fall it would seem clear that there is far more to this rally.
I've been reading recently that the nickel market was in the process of coming off the boil and the reduced daily draw down of nickel from the LME these past couple of weeks seems to confirm that. Today, however, 2,166 tonnes left the exchange. That's the highest daily drawn down for several weeks. As of yesterday there was 97,000 tonnes in the exchange. Todays drawn, 2.23% of the total, leaves less than 94,900 tonnes. At a similar draw down rate that's about 44 days supply.
Whether this has any impact on Amur remains to be seen. Knowing our luck the exchange will empty on the day it all kicks off in the Ukraine.
TDT