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Whatever Git. Bend it how you like.
‘The valuations don't include the Ammonia Cracker or 200kW other than what has already agreed to be sold to ABB.’
NO OF COURSE THEY DON’T, because they don’t exist yet !!! They probably don’t include any value for Alkamem which was actually being sold as commercial samples but is now a little side project that will probably be quietly dropped, when it was spouted as one of three revenue streams. Jeez you really will fall for anything…blue sky thinking LOL !
Or look at it another way, Daz could have assumed that you were responding to their last post, which is entirely logical and reasonable….being able to spin the situation to fit your narrative takes some kind of weird thought pattern, but then again, you still believe what the company says, so I rest my case….
Constructivenews,
RE: "If AFC sell off the Hydrogen cracker side of the business, how might that benefit AFC shareholders. In what ways"
1) It brings in a few hundred million in cash for AFC to take the Fuel Cells (it's core business) Global much quicker, the hire partners in USA, EU and more are asking for that.
2) No worries about building a big inventory or cash flow to outsourcing at much higher levels.
3) It could provide shareholders with a 'special dividend' which is the norm when selling off part of the business.
4) It would keep AFC focussed on it's core business instead of trying to become two high growth small cap businesses, which as they grow together would clearly need more cash, more staff, more factory space, etc than just the core business.
5) AFC could sell licences instead and be paid a royalty on every system manufactured (CWR's model), possibly even based on each tonne of Ammonia processed, as it is AFC's intellectual property. So snowballing revenues going forwards, based on how well the Ammonia Cracker does under the new owner, rather than a cash sum and nothing more.
Adam Bond said in the IMC meeting, in response to my question about selling the Ammonia Cracker, that AFC will explore all of the options available to them (which obviously includes selling it or selling licences for it) and then put their conclusion to shareholders. So it is worth thinking about how their logic will work.
Pommygit,
I see that JeffMills has not posted on ITM since he got all his posts ramping ITM on this board removed on Tuesday, so hopefully permanently banned.
Now I find it extremely interesting that Garonne is now ramping ITM on the ITM board, go see, right after JeffMill's last post is Garonne's.
So I conclude that JeffMills is the same person that posts on here as Garonne. And now it appears he is also Daz. He is probably Ade1234 as well, in that case.
Escala,
The valuations don't include the Ammonia Cracker or 200kW other than what has already agreed to be sold to ABB.
As per the last page of the presentation "Blue sky value from ammonia cracking which the Board believes is not reflected in today’s share price"
I agree on 50p this year as doable but in my view that is just based on the Fuel Cell business, as that would be a Market Cap of £373.71m. It has been higher, over £500m, just on the Fuel Cell business, but the market as a whole is still down, so can't expect the same MCap as when the market was higher. CWR, the nearest fuel cell company to compare, is at £355.54m and climbing. If the market recovers this year then even more likely.
If the Ammonia Cracker gets priced in, as it gets into a containers and out for trials, and multiple big Ammonia players like ICL sign agreements looking at sales early 2025, it could push the MCap up much higher, closer to that £500m or even above it if it gets correctly priced in by the market.
All looking fantastic. But I have a question I wish I'd asked at AGM. If AFC srll off ghe Hydrogen cracker side of yhe business, how might that benefit AFC shareholders. In what ways ??
I can't give a lot of detail as I wasn't there myself, but progress with Tamgo is not expected to be stellar initially as Tamgo need to know the fuel cell works in their environments, but it is expected to be very steady and to build momentum quickly. I am told that the projected revenue figures into 27-29 could be right on the money. The only other thing I would add is that the upper broker targets are felt to be a little ambitious right now, but the lower targets (starting at 50p I think) are realistic for this year.
"Blue sky value from ammonia cracking which the Board believes is not reflected in today’s share price"
I said that AFC would tell them in no uncertain terms that the Ammonia Cracker was worth £xxx 'way more than the MCap of the company'. The line above from the presentation would have been explained by the presenter. They even brought in ICL to make the point even more clearly.
Telecom12,
Thanks for posting the presentation! I agree, it is a real good one, the ii's and sell side analysts must have thought they had stepped into a whole new reality!
My picks from the presentation and a few thoughts:
Strong customer interest with first generators expected to hit sites this month. 21
Speedy "Delighted to be in partnership with Adam and the AFC Energy team"
TAMGO customers include Aramco, NEOM and other Saudi mega projects
Target to deliver in-country manufacturing to support regional demand
No intention to become mainstream hydrogen logistics business
That is another reason why I think the Ammonia Cracker has been specifically setup as a separate business, so it can be floated off of sold for a few hundred million to an Ammonia producer, Electrolyser manufacturer, big oil major, or someone like that, it makes no sense to make it a separate business if AFC are going to pursue it themselves. If they are not going to pursue Hydrogen Logistics, I see no logic to them pursuing an Ammonia Cracking business either, as that would also involve Ammonia Logistics. I just can't see AFC wanting to be involved in the logistics for the following, that is the realm of a massive global corporation that has all the infrastructure already in place:
Potential Markets for an Ammonia Cracker
Rail
Truck stops
Tube Trailers
Construction
Grid Support
Maritime
Mining
Excavation
Asphalt
Grain Drying
Steel
Steam Generation
Then we see ICL are already on it and are big enough to pay a fortune for that side of the business:
ICL clearly see the opportunity around the Hydrogen market for both their own use and for the supply of Ammonia and Hydrogen to others:
The AFC Energy Ammonia Cracker is central to utilising Hydrogen at our manufacturing sites and developing the customer market for ICL
Great to have Benedikt Eska on board, very impressive CV.
Illuming’s network includes stack manufacturers with significant production capacity.
AFC Energy is one Illuming Power’s fastest scaling customers
AFC Energy’s Hydrogen Power generator components represent a significant opportunity comparable to mobility applications
AFC facility:
Investment in the current facility completed last year
Big enough footprint to house entire organisation for baseline output with room to grow
Outlook
2024’s focus is on delivery!
We have put in place the foundation to facilitate:
routes to market with Tier 1 partners
H-Power Generator deployments to the field from this month
technology validation through satisfactory factory acceptance tests
links to international component and manufacturing partners
growth in production capacity both internal and external to support growth
Addressable markets offer rapid access through policy and regulation with sizeable growth potential
Blue sky value from ammonia cracking which the Board believes is not reflected in today’s share price
Agreed on the presentation. Very good, very clear strategic direction and loaded with appropriate detail. I can see why that would have been well received as noted by previous poster.
Must admit, quite impressed with the presentation.
@escala - do you know what Rami from Tamgo had to say about their progress?
Cheers
NEOM targeting displacement of > 1GW of diesel genera
• equivalent to 33,000 S Series 30kW generators
Looks like we have hit the jackpot
Check it out stock check let us know the good news
Https://www.afcenergy.com/media/viwgr22w/cmd-deck-8-may-2024-website-final.pdf
II's don't rush anything as well you know. Jeez you're scraping the barrel today
If so Escala, why are they not rushing to buy shares in the company?
I suspect it is the people at Helikon who have the short positions.
Warum pumpst du nicht auf ?
Nein Falsch, das Eine hat mit dem Anderen nichts zu tun. Wenn du einfach viel mehr Aktien kaufen würdest steigt der Kurs, egal wie gut Adam Bond und AFC ihre Arbeit machen. Es lieg einfach an dir mehr Aktien zu kaufen. So wie die Short Positionen geschlossen werden, wird der Kurs auch steigen. Ich empfehle dir eben dann deine Aktien nicht wieder zu schnell zu verkaufen sondern langfristig zu investieren. Ich wünsche dir viel Freude mit AFC :-)
Actually Garonne, my partner was at the CME and I can tell you that it was extremely well attended and the content very well received. The professionals were impressed with AFC's trajectory and post covid strategy.
But dont let the truth get in the way of your narrative whatever you do. Or pretend that you are stupid enough to think an event like this happens one day and the SP rises magically the next.
So the much hyped Capital Markets Day has now been and gone with the SP resuming a downward trajectory. Clearly Bond and Dixon Clarke failed to overly impress the attendees. The reality, however unpalatable, is that this share will not rise from the ashes as some on here have been predicting. It'll be lucky to see 30p in the next 5 years that is if the company remains solvent. Too little cash reserves with too much expenditure is not a recipe for a rising shareprice.
Has any news about this event been posted on the website
I'll try.
I replied to Garonne who said "Looks like yesterday's event was a damp squib despite haggis' weeks of telling us it would mark. a pivotal point" Accidently to Daz
Who replied with "About 15 years of experience being an AFC investor Pommy !"
Leading me to conclude that Daz/Garonne are one and the same poster. Why would Daz answer for Garonne?. Obviously the question was for him