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Summarising this Is PVR in second place with IOG third, or vice versa ?
IOG. Funding sorted. Gas found. Building a hub. North Sea. Partner is Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett). First gas in one year. Very low share price right now.
Difficult one Chris. I'd like something that isn't offshore with expensive drilling costs......
I agree Hallowed, small caps are largely sentiment driven.
I am looking for one with something to offer & where sentiment is likely to significantly approve with a near term significant catalyst such as a carry to production & with already drilled, CPR'D strong flow rates and large potential upside.
Know any?
OK I know it's not AIM, it's on the main market but it is a small cap stock and has not performed - and don't you just get tired of non-performing stocks on AIM or otherwise.
Yeah, Aminex is not an AIM stock.
But who cares? What difference does it make?
So many think that we are Aim Hallowed, but we are not. Guessing as a shareholder you would have known that, why not jump on in, but quickly ? You can send me that Moet Chandon when the balloon goes up next week.
Hi Tanzania, things are a bit slow with many AIM stocks that raise financing or expect to raise (due to the dilutive nature of the financing arrnagements) and so we need some major catalysts over the summer to move the SP, otherwise no point being invested for ever. LT holdings don't really work.
As per the companies presentation and the flow rates based on KN-1 ref pg 3 - Oct18
25% of the asset @ 40MMscfd = Net earnings of $11,428,571 pa
25% of the asset @ 140 MMscfd (FFD) = net earnings of $40,000,000 pa
Hallo Hallowed ! Welcome. Notice you have another disappointing oilie in Bahama. Very similar to AEX with (hopefully) better days to come. From what you say I wonder why it is you have invested here (assuming that you have of course) ?
joking aside, i wouldn't mind going there for a holiday. plus i do feel like it owes me a bit of a good time : )
Nothing - if you want a holiday there BG ;)
Thanks Matherdj. Didn't think I had made up 140. Significant upside in time.
What's wrong with Tanzania
Oh, and hopefully diversify outside of Tanzania!
40mmcf/d is just the minimum amount. The field is set to produce 140mmcf/d which is also the spare capacity at the GPP. May be up to that amount after a couple of drills if you believe past estimates that may have been reached on a successful/clean NT2 drill. That's about $40 million p.a. and will open up the ability to fund other license areas.
No, you are right BF. I'm misremembering the 'net to Aminex' statement. The presentation July 2018 contains the following:-
"Net to Aminex this Minimum (underlined and bold) rate represents approximately $12 million p.a. of fully carried cashflow".
So, reckon $10m profit, equals $100m or £80 mcap. That is 2.12p.
My mistake, and why we have these boards to check each other!
Obviously, Ruvuma/Ntorya could flow much more than 40mmcf/d, and I haven't put in anything for any condensates over what KN1 produced. In either case, valuation goes up accordingly.
Note, I'm not assigning any cashflow to Kiliwani until either it is proved that KN1 can flow again (following remediation?), or the decision is made to abandon it and drill a KN2 or KS1. There would then be a calculation of capex versus future cashflows for that.
From the depths of my memory (it's been a while since the deal was announced), minimum flow contracted is 40mmcf/d. I recall Jay was indicating much higher is expected, as that would just be NT1(am I imagining the 140mmcf/d figure?). Anyway, using the contract as the base case:-
40mmcf/d is about 3 times what KN1 was flowing at (12-15), and that was bringing in $800k a month, $9.6m a year.
So, minimum cashflow following development can be expected to be $28.8m/annum.
With minimal costs, we might expect $25m of that to be profit?
Using an earnings multiple of 10, would give a $250m mcap, or £200m.
With 3,771m shares, that is 5.3p.
But how much would that cost them buck? and that is before they start to cash-out $140 m on the development. This way, with the f/o there's no initial out-lay for the 50%, just the cost of the development, thats why i don't think they would walk away from the f/o talks that easily, they know they are onto a good thing.
North of your 1p. Hallowed.
35 mill is just the cash equivalent of the carry so ignores the asset values. More importantly after over 2 years of waiting the development to production can begin and with small caps like this one sentiment is key and what an improvement in sentiment the FO completion will be with it's carry to production.
GL
Our current Mcap is already aligned with the free-carry value ($35m) and the farm-out completion is expected and so priced in.
What SP re-rate are people expecting here?
I personally can't see it going much above 1p but hopefully SP (finally) stays above 1p until further concrete news flow.