Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
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I think (without wishing to jinx the future sp) that the recent placing and subsequent share trading gives is some indication about Zubair/Ara intentions.
The placing IMHO could have been done at a number of different points in time going forward, but it was done at a price not too far off the one where the share options were awarded to Santos i.e. a relatively low price.
Immediately after the placing the volumes traded have been many multiples of what they have been in preceding months. I'd like to think that the institutions buying in the placing were doing so on behalf of various clients in East Africa and the Middle East who needed to be kept sweet and that before the seismic results this would be the last opportunity to let them have a multi bagger.
And for the avoidance of doubt I am not suggesting there was anything wrong in what happened.
AIMHO
Tanz. Was it this one in August 2021?
"June RNS:
"Moreover, their revised mapping and internal management estimates suggest a mean risked gas in place ("GIIP") for the Ntorya accumulation of 3,024 Bcf, in multiple lobes to be tested and a mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf, which will be appraised by the planned seismic and drilling programme."
The issue is how you value that gas in the ground. At the moment it is stranded gas. So little value. Two catalysts will change the valuation of circa £25m. More gas being found. The stranding ceasing.
Lets remain super optimistic and say that the numbers hit 4TCF after the next drill. Or in other words let me round up. Our 25% licence would mean that is 1tcf net to Aminex. There are many arguments to be had over what value is ascribed to that amount of gas. But it is clear that as that volume of gas becomes less stranded and approaches market the value goes up from these levels. That is unarguable.
So although I have posed the question, ie. what value should that stranded gas in ground have, I am going to ignore my own question. My answer is it does not matter (to me) because it is more than £25m. Much more. As a very old back of fag packet and using old arguments like Cove, in ground 1TCf is £400m. The Cove valuation is years ago and is in a different market (offshore/LNG). But the gas price has trebled recently. Lets say I am wildly out and it is half of that. So £200m. That is x8 the current share price.
So my point is I don't care about precise valuations now as they are impossible. They become more possible as the production plans and route to market (including sale price and timeline) become clear. The one thing that is clear is that the share price will increase significantly. The 5-10p range is likely (IMHO). Beyond that will depend on what more is found and whether it is oil too.
The other thing I am comfortable about is that Zubair/Ara are as good as their word. They really do want to use Aminex as their vehicle in East Africa. I cannot pretend I know why. A more cutthroat large partner would just buy the whole company for the asset. They could pay double the mcap now and get a bargain. But they are not doing that.
I have said before and remain of the view that the risks for Aminex have all but gone. I guess the remaining risk is opportunity cost as the timeline is a year to the major catalyst. But on the views above this is a rare (I won't say once in a lifetime, oops I just did) opportunity. Low risk, huge asset, missed by market so far and a funded plan to realise the asset. It does not get any better than that.
All In my honest opinion. Do your own research. Good luck to the unfiltered ones on here!"
Tanz
I will do. But dont have it anywhere except on the LSE board. Its not a separate document. And work keeping me busy.
Best
Well Rojo, Zak is not talking sinking, instead they reckon it's Breakout ahead.... Best be warned, your digestive system could well be under some unwelcome stress shortly ! Buy in some Lansoprazole. In fact, if you are going to Crustys lunch, being the sport that you are, why not have a dress rehearsal with a baseball cap, yes ?
Two old stalwarts - planning to go down with the sinking ship.
I think your Top Up Edgar is more significant for me than any made by the BOD.
Just wonder if I can persuade you to re-print that wonderful missive you circulated
last year and to see where we are now, compared to that ? Do hope so.
A wee top up from me in kid's ISAs. Will keep buying as funds become available.