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Good article on afentra in todays Africa Business very positive.
So true Bob, the markets are fickle at the best of times.
It's all rather academic anyway - I'm holding in my ISA for the very long term, regardless of short term sp movement. I think this'll be huge over the next decade.
Rex
Look at the next 12 months and we're in the money:
4000bpd x 350 days @ $40 profit = $56m
Cash/equity is currently $58m.
Total: $114m
Minus $80m upfront + $5m annually
Total: $85m
That leave $29m equity/cash or £23.2m at £/$ 1/1.25 which is 10.5p per share.
If you use the current $115 per barrel over the next year then the numbers are way better - $80 profit pb would give:
$112m + $58m equity/cash = $170m. Less the $85m = $85m cash, or 30.9p per share.
None of the above take into account the 20m barrels of P2 reserves, Odewayne, Block 23, or anything else in the pipeline.
I think we'll at least double on relist.
Just my view :)
Rex
Plus the deal itself was done at $60 - $75 oil price equivalent, what about the current price deck? More share price needed to reflect that.
Paul McDade's quote in conf cast: " At $75 this would still be a tremendous deal for shareholders"
I dont know , when you look at MCAP of Kistos with the same 2P reserves.... ok production is higher 8kboepd v 4kboepd, but same reserves in Block 3/05 long life field, more running room for improvement in the field.
No Management premium built into the share price now. Pre their first deal kistos were £1.70, about a £36 million management premium, rightly justified, but their cash was £1.
The use of a clean balance sheet to leverage up.
This could come back at 40p plus. That would only be a £88 million MCAP. Surely its got to be higher? KISTOS is £339 million MCAP. The acquisition itself is $80m plus an almost definite $50 million over 10 years . ($130m money of the day deal)
So £88m MCAP (40P)..... STILL no management premium? Come on!
In hindsight you're probably right Bob.
I'd settle for doubling on day 1, followed by a slow and steady rise as the wonga rolls in :)
Rex
Angola
I expect another deal in Uganda in the next 3-6 months
Cheers Bob,
Personally, I think we'll 5 bag by 2pm on our first day, but what do I know! :)
Agree about management. I believe they're currently looking at other deals as we speak.
Rex
CORRECTION:
"For those wanting to use the current oil price, then just add 20.4p to the £1.80 for each year you think oil will be at current levels".
*I forgot to add back in the $80million + $50million deductions from my original calcs. All other numbers stand.
Rex
Reading all the posts about our potential MCap made me get my calculator out. Now, I'm no oil expert so please don't shoot me down for having a basic stab at valuing this, but here goes.......
We have 220m shares in issue.
We have $58m of cash/equity.
This equates to a current sp of 21p.
Block 3/5 will give us 4,000bpd and 20 million barrels of P2 reserves.
If we assume a very conservative $75 per barrel and an AISC of $35, then we get $40 per barrel of profit.
If we assume production of 350 days per year then that gives us 4000barrels x $40 x 350 days = $56million FCF per year.
(I don't know what kind of downtime could be involved in maintenance etc, so I've gone for 1.25 days per month as a pure guess).
Now, if you extrapolate that across the next 10 years (see the latest presentation), we get $560 million FCF. We then deduct the upfront $80million payment and the $50m payment that's spread over 10 years, then we get a figure of $430 million. In addition to this we can add the P2 reserves. After 10 years of production these would be reduced to 6 million barrels (having produced 1.4 million barrels annually for 10 years). I believe OIP is valued at between $1-2 per barrel. Taking the mid figure of $1.50 per barrel, that would give us another $9 million. This gives us a total of $439 million over 10 years.
Therefore with a P/E of 10, and a $/£ exchange rate of 1.25, I calculate a share price of £1.59 plus our current assets of 21p. Giving a grand total of £1.80 per share.
For those wanting to use the current oil price, then just add 15.9p to the £1.80 for each year you think oil will be at current levels.
Of course, this all depends on how the market values our P/E. If they decide to give up a P/E of 2, then our sp will be 36 pence! :(
The above doesn't take account of the current high oil price (I've only used $75), Odewayne, Block 23, any increase in production at Block3/5 or any other deals that P McD may possibly have in the pipeline.
Grateful for any constructive thoughts, but please no abuse! As I said at the biginning of my post, I'm no oiler :)
Regards
Rex
Sounds about right cos they said its a 2 year payback at $75! What must it be at $110 + ?
Well you should be excited as i reckon afentra have $18mill banked since april deal looking super exciting and no doubt more deals ready to conclude multi bagger on re listment.
very excited for this to re-list as my first oil investment with the deal as it's structured and oil priced as it is. Could be one of the best performers this year?
as per 'donmac101' message:
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/ep-africa/415152/angola-resources-anpg-afentra/
“The majors will continue to be in the ultra deepwater and LNG,” Afentra COO Ian Cloke said. “But the shallower waters will need new players.”
Man in jacket against blue green background© Supplied by Afentra
“We were really impressed with the quality of the assets when Sonangol started its process last year – and out of that came Block 3/05,” Ian Cloke said. Picture shows; Ian Cloke, COO of Afentra. London. Supplied by Afentra Date; Unknown
Block 3/05 will provide Afentra with net production around 4,000 bpd and 20mn barrels of net 2P reserves. There is considerable room to run, though.
“We’re trying to identify hidden value,” Cloke said. “On Block 3/05 we felt we could help reduce emissions. It also has multiple fields and a huge [oil in place] figure, every 1% we improve the recovery factor gives another 30mn barrels. It’s low cost.”
A number of small and mid-sized companies are keen to buy production, but the number capable of signing up for work in West Africa – convincing governments and investors alike of the plan – is limited. Afentra is driven by three former Tullow Oil execs, alongside Cloke is CEO Paul McDade and CFO Anastasia Deulina.
Nice article on afentra in todays Energy Voice ,lots more to come .
Guys could someone better than myself do the math
4000bbls a day at $35 cost and oil at $117 a bbl
Ah dont believe my calculation.When we are sitting at a present market cap of £32 million ah make it closer to 100mill.correct me if iam way out.
AGM result is on their own website, it is logged as an RNS
Also a good presentation on the Acquisitions
Hmm, interesting situation re AET. They’re suspended, which seems to get them off the hook in terms of reporting obligations to their shareholders (aka owners) but they must still have governance obligations as a plc.
So, unless a frequenter of these boards actually attends the AGM and reports back, we are all in the dark. Or, are AET as a plc mandated to publish minutes (which could still be terse and uninformative)?
I used to attend SEY AGMs but you didn’t learn much, usually because they were in the middle of drilling (yet another) dud exploratory well.
AGM this morning anyone going? Maybe pick up the odd snippet on any future deals.
Feels like a new ipo and we are in pre ipo price, be nice to be back near term
Government approvals and a license extension for Block 3/05 are anticipated to be granted, with the publication of the AIM re-admission document and resumption of trading anticipated to occur mid-year.
not long now...
Must be coining it in with oil at$115 canny wait tae see the fireworks when suspension ends
I concur but thinking multi bagger over the next 12 months, maybe I'm being optimistic but suspect the deals will start coming at a good pace ------ here's hoping
Thanks for that. I expect the sp may double from here on re-listing, with other deals in the pipline (possibly). Like you, I'm here for P McD and his Africa knowledge/experience. I have a feeling that within 5-10 years AET will be big.
Good luck :)
Rex